Dec 27th Selections

Nakayama 3rd Race #11 Dream Basket with 3,4,6,7,9( ￥1,000 Quinellas)
Nakayama 4th Race # 11 Liberty Valance with 1,2,3,6,7,8,13(￥1,000 Quinellas)
Nakayama 11th Race # 8 Turning Point with 1,2,3,6,11,12,14( ￥1,000 each-way Exacta) (￥5000 win ticket)
Chukyo 3rd Race # 10 Theme Song with 1,4,7,12,14,16 (￥1,000 each-way Exacta)

Arima Kinen 09

2-14, 9-14,1-14,7-14,8-14,( Insurance BOX 1,2,7,8,9) Jack Nicholson rightfully asked "Is this as good as it gets", as far as #14 Seiun Wonder, is concerned, hardly! With potential favorable early fractions, Shinji Fugita looks to be in position to steal a victory ahead of the talented but late running speed and capture the 54th annual Alima Kinen this Sunday. Comming in 3rd in three of the last four races, Wonder has not embarrassed himself but the betting public will let him fly under the radar and go off at 18.0 or HIGHER!! Value here!

Nakayama might be the answer? Yokoyama might be the answer? I cant justify #2 Buena Vista, being the favorite, but at 53 kilo you have to put her near the top!

The knock on #9 Dream Journey, is the starting gate ,but he is definitly a better horse than the one that came in 4th last year.

#8 Reach The Crown, can control a race with smart fractions. The pace is the hardest aspect to guage but if he runs as well as the Kikka-Sho, then should be bottom heavy for a trifecta play.

#7 Matsuri da Gogh, Tend to think his succsess at Nakayama has to due with the class he has been running with( earlier career) than anything else. Kunieda is the trainer so enough said. Have to consider.

#1 Unrivaled, back to back solid speed numbers in the Spring at Nakayama.
********************************************************************************
#10 Three Rolls...perfect trip in the Kikka-sho..wont get it here!
#16 Forgettable...Stayer Stakes was the appropriate race for him. Way over his head in class & seasoning.
#4 Meiner Kitz.. might regret this one, but new jockey Miru will have a handful at 2500 on this course.
#6 Air Shady..I picked this horse in last years Alima to win. Not this time. Love the Goto/Ito combination but.........

Dec 19th & 20th Results

0-2 this weekend with a -￥18,000 loss. Key horses finishing 2nd and 5th.

Dec 20th Selection

Nakayama 8th Race( ￥1000 each way exacta)

#12 Sweet Macaren with 1,3,10,11

Dec 19th Selection

Nakayama 12th Race ￥1000 each-way

#14 Hokulele, bad gate and all, however has the rating for an " effort" in a Nakayama profile!
#14 with 3,5,9,11,12

Dec 12th & 13th Result

Got Hanshin 18-6 for a ￥37,000 return to squeeze out a ￥9000 profit weekend for Keibagold blog. The big returns were international however, as I scored in both of my races with a very generous $87 HK return in the Cup that came to over( both races) 4K ($U.S )total.Two more weekends to go!!!

Dec 13th Selections & Hong Kong

2yr-old fillie form cycles are highly unpredictable. What is predictable is the long term (R.O.I.) of a Ebina/Kunieda combination. Tough race but will go with what works!

Hanshin 11 Race # 18 Apapane ( ￥1000 each-way exacta)
with 6,7,8,16

Nakayama 11 Race..#7 Daiwa Delight with 5,6,11,14,16 ( same as above)

Hong Kong Mile..# 6 Happy Zero( $50 one-way exacta)( $100 quinella)
with 1,2,3,9

Hong Kong Cup..#4 Collection ( same as above)
with 1,3,5,7

please consider www.bet365.com for international wagering.

Dec 12th Selection

Nakayama ￥1000 each-way Exacta

11Race..Goto turned down Tribute Song in G3( Chukyo) to ride Air McCool. Track conditions not withstanding ,will go with#8 with 1,2,3,10,13

If Only I Had........

Experience shows that generally when you hit 3/5 winners, profit normally ensues! Not! Some tough breaks this weekend as Keibagold(blog) had what could have been an early Christmas extravaganza, end up being a frustrating result. Rock the Nation came home a winner( Munakata Turf to Dirt now hitting at a 70% clip at Nakayama) but unfortunately I didn't include enough dark horse fliers and missed out on the ￥153,000, return. Golden Ticket( at 38.9) came up just short, thwarting a 1-9 ￥2000> 360,000( exacta return)(180.1) and a ￥184,000 Quinella return. (92.0). A possible ￥697,000 day. That's racing!

Dec 6th Selections

Early Nakayama( 1st Race ) ..# Rock the Nation- turf to dirt..at 10.1
#11 each way ￥1000 Exacta with 5,6,8,9,16

Hanshin ( 11 Race) JC Dirt * see earlier post for write-up

Exactas
1-5 ￥3000
1-7 ￥2000
1-9￥2000
1-16 ￥5000
Quinellas

1-5 ￥3000
1-7￥2000
1-9￥2000
1-16 ￥10,000

Win

#1 ￥10,000

Dec 5th Selections

All Hanshin, ￥1000 Quinellas

Will have a little fun with the Super Jockey Challenge and chose Calvin Borel, as my weekend anchor. (photo: riding Rachel Alexandra)

10 Race# 8 with 3,6,7,13
12 Race # 12 with 2,4,5,7

11 Race ￥1000 one way exacta.￥2000 quinella
# 7 with 4,5,6,9,10,12 ( I Ko Piko, was on my long list for the Japan Cup until he dropped out. This definitely looks softer!

JAPAN CUP DIRT 09

One-way Exactas( 1-16,1-5, 1-7,1-9)..Quinellas( 1-16,1-5,5-16,1-7,1-9) Catch him if you can! Earning a big speed number(107) off his last race in Morioka, a well rested Espoir City, looks to go wire to wire this Sunday and capture the 09 Japan Cup in Hanshin. The race profiles showing dismal efforts with horses on or near the lead can be discarded along with the laser disks and VHS machines. Hashin race course , with the shorten distance, will create a different type of monster. There were indications in last years Cup which lacked any " credible" early speed which saw Kane Hekil have a winning line of 4 3 3 4 1, that fortunes would be reversed. The potential stretch runners in this years race have more negatives than positives, and the mid-pack stalker types have inconsistent speed ratings, compounded by class concerns. Throw in a couple of dark horse fliers, (#9 Mori trained Golden Ticket) and the front runner( #7 Tizaway..he might take to the track?) and we have a very unimaginative early speed wager!********************************************************************************

#4 Vermilion..Handicapping 101..horses 5yrs or older after a layoff of 3 months or more and after a win, have a huge potential to Bounce on their second time out.
# 2 Success Broken... had a good number in his race before last!.....last race?
# 12 Silk Mobius...if the pace falters, this horse is for you.

Japan Cup Weekend Recap

A profitable weekend for Keibagold was topped off by one of the most exciting finishes in the 29 year history of The Japan Cup. Ask Deputy at 21.1, cashed in a ￥104,700 ticket exacta for us in the 9th race on Sunday saving the blog from a near disaster. Next weeks G1 Dirt lost Summer Bird, consequently losing my interest.

Nov 28th & 29th Recap

Races Bet: 8
Races Won :2
Amount Wagered: ￥102,000
Amount Returned: ￥115,700
Net Profit: ￥13,700

Year To Date

Original Bankroll:￥1,000,000
Standing Bankroll ￥1,487,700
Net Profit ￥487,700

Nov 29th Selections

All each-way exacta ￥1000(Tokyo) Lone Kyoto ￥500

Failed to isolate a winner on the 28th. My horses that made my cut card finished 1st or 2nd in all three races. Will dutch some tickets to try and get this blog a winning weekend.

Kyoto 4 Race 11 with 1,4,6,7,9,10,14
Tokyo 7th 5 with 1,3,10,11...11 with 1,3,10,
Tokyo 8th 11 with 2, 15,6,16..15 with 2,6,16
Tokyo 9th 2 with 12,6,10,11,13...12 with 1,6,10,11,13
Tokyo 11th 3 with 6,11,15,9..11 with 6,9,15

Tokyo Nov 28th Selections

All ￥1000 each-way exactas

7th #1 Kenangan...Got her maiden win last time out with a very effective Z pattern. Demuro has her for a back to back win on dirt! with 8,10,11,13,16
8th #6 Bombardiere....Getting 7.1 because of starting troubles. Worth the risk! with 1,7,8,12,16
10th #2 Weltmeister...An under-valued pace setter. with 3,4,8,13

JAPAN CUP 09 WINNER!

Each way exactas( 6-10,9-10,5-10,8-10,10-11) A ten ticket insurance quinella box(5.6.8.9.11) The facts Mam, just the facts", an iconic line from a 60's television show is appropriate to summarize this years winner.
Fact #1 Otonishi is the leading Kansai trainer.

Fact #2 Uchida is the leading Kanto Jockey.

Fact #3 Of all the horses that can BENIFIT from an added distance since their previous race is only one.

Fact #4 The name ROCKS!!

My selection for the 09 JapanCup is OKEN BRUCE LEE.
**************************************************
#9 Reach the Crown has a great " energy pace distribution" rating. If Take can get a comfortable pace? Watch out! # 5 Red Desire has the tactical speed to run on the lead shall Crown falter.#6Vodka will be in a position to make her signature move. Doubts prevail if she can win at 2400 again but Sumi is a master at conditioning. The opportunity will be there. #8Meiner Kultz--Never underestimate a Kunieda trained horse! He is healthy and thats enough to be a potential ticket buster.#11 Marsh Side--Drysdale has something " under the hood" here. I'm not sure what it is but then again I'm not a mechanic.
**************************************************************************************
#16 Conduit..What ever chance he had went out with the bath water after the terrible draw. His future is secure so don't see an over aggresive ride considering. The doctors oath" First do no harm" applies here as well.
#18 Screen Hero...Not the same horse as last year.Look at the replays of his previous races and at the 2200 mark his tank is running on empty and soon to be empty.
#1 Asakusa Kings..His last race was a real head scratcher!?..Remember, he was running stride for stride with last years Cup runner up Deep Sky until the last 100m.
#3 Air Shady...Not sure if there is any BIG RACE left in the 8 year old?

November Recap

Some exciting races to be had in the following few weeks. My Japan Cup Selection might be downgraded from a " paid" to a " service". My money lines and track projections have already been done AND still there are SEVEN horses with viable stats. This is not good when you want to isolate a winner and solid ticket configuration If rain comes Friday and Saturday, the list shortens dramatically.

NOV,
Races Bet: 3
Races Won 0
Amount Wagered: ￥４8,000
Amount Lost: -￥48,000

Year-to-date:
Original Bankroll: ￥1,000.000
Standing Bankroll￥１,474,000
Net Profit: +　￥474,000

Mile Championship

Jacks Smile #5 with #4, #7,#8,#11, #15 all ￥2000 each-way exactas

Queen Elizabeth II

I've been touting Buena Vista ( # March 9th Post))as having the best sudden acceleration of any race horse this decade, and come this Sunday she will prove me right once again. Queen for a day**BUENA VISTA

Nov 15th, 11 Race, Kyoto

Exacta: 16-5,16-8,16-12,16-17( ￥２０００ each way)

Trifecta:(￥1000)16-5-8,16-5-12,16-5-17,16-8-5,16-8-12,16-8-17,16-12-5,16-12-8,16-12-17,16-17-5,16-17-8,
16-17-12

Japan Cup & Japan Cup Dirt

The Japan Cup & Japan Cup Dirt will be "Paid Selections"only. For more information on getting the absolute strongest selections available on these two races, please contact Keibagold before November 27th.

Weekend Recap

Only one race put up this weekend on Keibagold. Jaugar Mail had to rally from 16th, but unfortunately came up well short, coming in 5th. My lone international play in the Breeders Cup Turf was spoiled by Precious Kitten coming in 2nd ,as my 3 top plays in the exacta ticket finished 1+2+3+4.

Argentina G2

Jaguar Mail will be sent off as a 3.8 favorite in tomorrows Argentina G2 race at the Tokyo Race Course. Coming in 2nd last year, behind eventual Japan Cup winner Screen Hero, Mail looks fresh and has a weaker field comparability to 08, thus Keibgold recommends straight up exactas on a 6-horse wheel.

11th Race, Start Time: 3:40 #17 with 4,5,11,12,15,16( ￥2000 each way)

Breeders Cup Turf

Only one play for me on this weekends Breeders Cup extraordinaire, and that's in Saturdays Turf.
I have a $ 300 each way exacta with 2,5,and 6. Spanish Moon and Conduit are as evenly matched as can be!! Dar Re Mi definitely has the kick to do well on the synthetic surface.* For those Japanese customers wishing to wager, please consider www.bet365.com.

Big Red Buys Conduit

Conduit winner of the Grade 1 St. Legar and King George has been sold to stand at Shigeyuki Okada's Big Red Farm from 2010. The 4-year-old is the favorite in the Breeders Cup Turf at Sanita this weekend and also has been pre-entered in the Japan Cup later this month.

Halloween Weekend Recap

A very profitable Halloween weekend for Keibagold, as followers were treated to a +154,000 profitable day. Tokyo's 1st race had Real Avenue coming in as the 1.5 first choice to top a　￥2210 exacta. Kashima Strong made it two in a row, finishing a neck in front of the 8th choice, that paid a tidy￥ 7490. **( Note of interest: There were 18 customers that received the #Paid Package Selections, which netted just ￥32,000 in profit! Its sometimes true that the best things in life are free!

Races Bet: 5
Races Won 2
Amount Wagered:￥50,000
Amount Returned: ￥204,000
Net Profit: ￥154,000

Year to date:
Starting bankroll: ￥1,000,000
Standing bankroll:￥1,522,000
Net Profit to date: ￥522,000

Tenno-Sho**Shingen**?

Sorry, I have only"purchase selections" for today. My Tenno -Sho selection will not be included in the Keibagold bankroll, as I will not be personally betting the race. Many people take interest in the G1 races and have indicated they would like my insight rather I wager on them or not. Vodaka will soak up all the exotic pools and no matter where you use her the returns will be miniscule. If you don't use her then I would suggest to start taking your medication. For the" what its worth department...#10 with 3,7,8,12,15 in straight up Exactas.

Halloween Weekend Selections (Oct 31st)

Two strong favorites start our day at Tokyo for the 1st and 2nd races. In the 10th Alba might be fit to hit the board and in the 11th Dark Message has the acceleration to compensate for the bad post. Over at Kyoto Hiroki Goto has a strong mount in the 11th. I hope everyone has a safe and profitable Halloween.


Tokyo 1st and 2nd race 2000 yen Exactas


1st

4-3
4-6
4-11
4-12


2nd


2-1
2-3
2-8
2-9
2-10


10th&11th 2000yen quinellas


10th
2-12
7-12
8-12
10-12
12-18


11th Race ( All combos with #16)

3,7,8,11,15

Kyoto 11th ( All quinella combos at 2000 yen with#14)
2,9,13,15,17

Weekend Recaps

Some bad breaks for Keibagold this past weekend! I hit 2/3 winners on my 50,000 yen card on Saturday but failed to make a profit. Absolute came home a winner at 11-1 as predicted but I failed to recognize NO.17 as a possible long shot and thus missed an opportunity to cash over 1,000,000 in winnings. The Kikuka-Sho was handicapped as expected which was to go with the horses that won their last time out. Again Three Rolls was the ONLY horse besides my two top picks that matched this criteria. The distance was however considered a libility and was scratched off my selection card. My profiles for Tokyo are hitting at high percentages and weather permitting it should be a winning month ahead!!

Races Bet: 6
Races Won: 1
Amount Wagered: 127,000
Amount Returned: 36,000
Net Loss: -91,000

YEAR TO DATE:

Original Bankroll: 1,000,000
Standing Bankroll: 1,368,000
Net Profit: 368,000

Kikuka Sho

Not sure what to make of this race. A simple maxi um " Stick with the horse that wins" seems to apply here. Will dutch two horses that have come off wins without any apparent track bias and getting 5-1 or better. I Ko Piko will get a higher betting sum in this selection.


Kyoto 11 Race ( ticket price 40,000)


( 2-way exacta for 2000)


3-14
7-14
8-14
11-14
14-16
14-17
14-18


( 2-way exacta for 1000)


3-16
7-16
8-16
11-16
16-17
16-18

Oct 24th Selections ( 50,000 YEN CARD)

Tokyo (2nd & 10thl 1000 yen each-way exactas)( 11th Race 2000 yen each way exactas)

2nd Race #13 Vibrations

2-13
3-13
8-13
13-14
13-16

10th Race #6 Tribute Song

1-6
2-6
4-6
6-7
6-10
6-11

11th Race #3 Absolute

1-3
3-7
3-8
3-11
3-12
3-13
3-16

Oct 18th, Early Selection & Shuka Sho

Tokyo ( Quinella) all 1000
Debut race here(maiden). Apocalypse should go off at 20-1 and with the outside post doing well thus far at Tokyo a potential long shot is a possibility.

3rd Race
2-12
4-12
5-12
6-12
7-12
8-12
9-12
11-12

Kyoto( Shuka-sho)
11 Race ( Exacta) all 1000

3-5-4
3-5-7
3-5-8
3-5-9
3-5-11
3-5-16
3-4-5
3-7-5
3-8-5
3-9-5
3-11-5
3-16-5
5-3-4
5-3-7
5-3-8
5-3-9
5-3-11
5-3-16

Oct 17th, Early Selections Post Time: 10:55

Two early races earmarked this weekend for Keibagold. Saturday at Tokyo (3rd) and again Sunday at Tokyo( 3rd).

Oct. 17th

Tokyo

3rd Race*** 1# Dream Basket

1-4
1-6
1-7
1-8
1-9
1-11

All 1000 2-way Exactas ( Total Cost, 12,000)

Autumn Campaign Kick-Off & Recaps

The official autumn racing season began in earnest last week as major preps were held for the upcoming G1 slate later this month. Keibagold went 1/2 on the 50,000 yen card on Sunday. Oken Bruce Lee went off at lower odds than expected but never the less won to top the Exacta ticket for a 127,200 yen payout and a net profit of 77,200 .

Recap ( Aug. 16th-Oct.11th)

Races Wagered: 11
Races Won: 2
Money Wagered: 124,000
Money Returned: 172,600
Net Profit: 48,000+

Year to date:
Starting bankroll: 1,000,000
Standing bankroll:1,459,500
Net Profit: + 459,500

50,000 YEN Card Tomorrow ( Oct.11th)

SMILE JACK finally looks in fine form and merits a win wager for tomorrow's Mainichi Okan Grade 2 ! Oken Bruce Lee generously should be getting 6-1 or better and rates for a very profitable spot play at Kyoto.

Tokyo 11 Race

7-4 10,000
7-6 10,000
7-11 10,000

Kyoto 11 Race

2-3 4000
2-7 4000
2-8 4000
2-10 4000
2-14 4000

September 26th Selections

Three tracks today. All Quinellas & 2000

Nakayama
10th Race
4-10
7-10
10-11
9-10
Hanshin
8th Race
4-18
5-18
9-18
11-18
16-18
Nigatta
10th Race
43-8
6-8
8-11
8-16

September 20th Selections

Nakayama( all 1000)

6 Race #4

4-6
4-7
4-8
4-9
411

Hanshin

9 Race #8
1-8
4-8
7-8
8-11

August 16th Selections

All Kokura & All 2000 & All Uma-Ren

7th

3-4
3-7
3-8
3-9
3-11
3-16

8th

4-6
4-7
4-8
4-9
4-11
4-14

9th

4-5
4-7
4-8
4-9
4-11
4-16

10th

4-9
7-9
8-9
9-11
9-13
9-16

August 16th

Selections will be available on August 16th.

SUMMER BREAK

I hope everyone is having a splendid summer. Traditionally I have taken a r esprit from the races after the Derby to plan strategy and update needed data & profiles for the Autumn campaign. Periodically I will post selections this month and August particular late afternoon races in Nigatta.

May Recap

Races Bet: 10
Races Won: 2 ( May 23rd Tokyo 12th race)(May 9th Nigatta 4th race)
Amount Wagered: 153,000
Amount Returned: 182,000
Net Gain: 29,000
Original Bankroll: 1,000,000
Standing Bankroll: 1,411,500
Yearly Gain: 411,500

May 31st Japanese Derby Selection

First of all let it be known that my past Derby selections have been less than stellar. I don't buy into the hype that goes with this race and I therefore treat it as a novelty bet more than anything else. There are 18 young horses that have never(for the most part) ever gone the 2400 meter distance before and with a few exceptions haven't reached a peak form cycle yet. The numerous pitfalls of handicapping this race are to numerous to mention but with some historical perspective we can come to some proven reasonings. The horse that wins this race comes from a previous G1 race! The horse that wins this race had finished in the top 3 in THAT previous race! With few exceptions the horse that wins this race will have odds of less than 8-1. If this model proves correct only 2 horses can win this race, Unrivaled or Triump March. Jo Capacino and Seiun Wonder will go off higher thus don't qualify. What is also true is that the favorites Don't finish together. A dark horse with an emerging form cycle comes through with very attractive odds. Let's bet on history happening again!

Derby ( Tokyo 10th race)

1-18, 7-18, 9-18, 10-18, 11-18 ( all 3000) uma ren
18-1, 18-7, 18-9,18-10. 18-11 ( all 3000) uma tan
1-16,7-16,9-16,10-16,11-16(all 2000) uma ren
16-1, 16-7, 16-9, 16-10,16-11 ( all 2000) uma tan
Longshot fun Box
1-17,7-17,9-17, 10-17,11-17,16-17,17-18 ( all 500) uma ren

Total Cost Of Ticket Outlay : 53,500

May 24th Selections

Tokyo

8th Race
2-8 3000
5-8 3000
8-9 3000
8-12 3000

10th Race
1-3 2000
3-6 2000
3-10 2000
3-11 2000
3-12 2000

11th(OAKS)

7-8-3 2000
7-15-3 2000
7-3-8 2000
7-3-15 2000
7-8-15 2000
7-15-8 2000

7-8 5000
7-15 5000

May 23rd Selection

Tokyo 12 Race 2-12 3000
5-12 3000 8-12 3000 12-15 3000 12-16 3000

Victoria Mile

This is where the life of a handicapper gets tricky. We have an overwhelming favorite ( Vodka) that is, in my humble estimation, going on a downturn cycle but faced with a very weak field of contenders. What to do? We pass on the race! The recent" off tracks "these past few weeks have made for some juggling of numbers so nothing of note for my faithful followers this weekend.

NHK Mile Selection

Tokyo 11th Race ( 5 horse & uma ren Box for 2000 each( 20,000)
4.6.13.16.17

3rd Race all 3000

3-12
12-3
7-12
12-7

* 4-12 uma-ren 2000
* 8-12 uma-ren 2000

May 9th Selections

Tokyo

9th race
( all 1000 yen)(uma-ren)
2-3
2-4
2-11

12th Race
( all 2000 yen)(uma ren)

3-8
7-8
8-13
8-15

Nigatta

4th Race

all 2000 yen(uma tan)

7-11
11-7
2-11
11-2
11-12
12-11
11-13
13-11

Kentucky Derby

I Want Revenge is in fine form and yes he will go off at 3-1 but let's play the chalk in this one.

4-13
12-13
13-15
13-19