ORFEVRE : LOOKING AT A DERBY WINNER

After a lot of effort trying to get that square peg in that round hole, an anecdotal expression meaning in handicapping terms, finding a long shot that's not there , I decided to take the easier approach and put the peg where it belongs and likewise with my handicapping go with the proven horse , abet the favorite # 5 Orfevre.

Four good efforts in a row with final furlong fractions the fastest in all four races. Dominant trainer, and a surface running the same as his previous race, where he left every horse in the mud.

#10 Nakayama Knight: I cant say he took to the surface in the Satsuki coming in 5th, but I believe it was more his conditioning than anything else. He never got that acceleration going, but if he can stay up near the pack I think he might have a chance to take off.

#11 Debonair. He usually runs closer to the pace than he did last time out but a bad break did him in. Having said that he came from 14th to finish an impressive 4th. Like Knight, if Dettori can keep him closer or even mid pack he has that potential to drive it home once again.

#2 Sadamu Patek: I really liked this horse earlier in the week based on the Satsuki Sho. Literally, he had to move through a guantlet of horses and still finished 2nd. I got a late feeling that maybe the mojo isn't there quite yet, meaning he will still find a way to get in trouble or come up short. His bloodlines are somewhat a concern at 2400m too. Certainly I'm not abandoning him, but a downgrade.

#13. Roccaverano: A money horse that suddenly finds the Derby veteran Yutaka on his back. Other horses look statistically more attractive but you cant put a price tag on experience.

#16 Tosen Reve: The only horse that has been in the money in all his races. Going to continue to ride the momentum.

#15 Tosen Ra: Another horse trained by a very competent trainer that didn't run his race last time out.

The Wager: A 6-horse box (2,5,10,11,13,16) for ￥1000 Each-Way Exacta, except for #5 for ￥3000 Each Way Exacta. Also 5-15 for ￥3000 each-Way Exacta

Key #5 with (2,10,11,13,15,16) in random trifectas ( 15 tickets) for ￥2000 each.

IKEE 'S KNOCKING THREE TIMES ON THAT DERBY DOOR

Orfevre & Ikee


Its Derby Week and the inundation of information, hoopla, over-hyped quotes and the other over indulgences of media and data has already begun.

I got up this morning to form a " direction" to the derby only to find an easier road than expected thanks to Yahoo weather. The forecast?, continual rain most of the week and also on SUNDAY. Of course we cant always count on these types of things but the starting point of any meaningful handicapping must start from the probable track surface.

I'm totally ignorant on off track-pedigree of Japanese stallions. I find it easier to just go back in the archives at races ran in similar conditions and see how those horses fared. Hold and behold we only have to go as far back as last months Satsuki Sho and analyze similar potential race conditions and as a bonus its even at the SAME track. I'm guessing, but Sherlock Holmes might also deduct that are first " clues" shall be found with THIS race.

BETTING STRATEGY: I would love to lock on one horse but frankly I cant really justify putting one of the contenders significantly higher than any of the others. Most likely, I'll box my top 5 and key 1 horse in particular in a 6-horse trifecta box. I don't see many punters chasing after their losses after the Oaks result on Sunday. The odds should be evenly spread which bolds well for the favorites as the dark horses are already getting cheated in value by not having a large lop side in the betting pool because of the evenness of odds toward the numerous top choices..

QUESTIONS TO CONSIDER

1) The weather and eventual run of the surface?
2) Orfevre. He has the 2nd highest rating in the world for 3-yr olds. Budding star or B-grade?
3) Ikee has a bundle of talent. Feast or Famine?
4) Second Chances..can Tosen Ra, Nakayama Knight, Belshazzar run to their potential this time ?
5) Trial Race Pretenders or Contenders? Win Varation& Cresco Grand
6) Where is the pace? Universal Bank might pull an inside job and steal this race?
7) Tosen Reve? Does he have a thing for this course or what??

May 22nd Selections

KYOTO 11 RACE
TOKYO 11 RACE
#1 CIVIL WAR

#3 BOUNCY TUNE






Tokyo 11 Race Japanese OAKS
#3 Bouncy Tune & 1,5,13,14,17

The Wager : 1,5,13,14,17　￥1000 Quinella Box ( 10 tickets)
#3 with 1,5,13,14,17 ￥1000 Each-Way Exacta( 10 tickets)

Kyoto 11 Race

# 1 Civil War & 2,3,6,15

The Wager: 2,3,6,15 ￥1000 Quinella Box ( 6 tickets)
#1 with 2,3,6,15 ￥1000 Each-Way Exacta ( 8 tickets)

May 21 Selection

Kyoto 11 Race

Boxing 4,5,11,12,13 with a ￥￥ Key on #5 A Shin Whity

The Wager: 4,5,11,12,13 Each-Way Exacta Box for ￥1000 but Key #5 for ￥2000

May 15th Selection

Nigatta 11 Race

Boxing 1,5,6,7,8.....#8 Vaiade..Wild Rush was the leading sire winner at 1000 meters in Niigata last year. This years sample is too small to indicate if he is still on top but will go with this angle anyways.

The Wager ( Box 1,5,6,7,8,) for ￥1000 Each way Exacta except for #8 which is for ￥2000 Each-Way

May 14th Selection

Tokyo 11 Race Keio Hai

Boxing 5, 6,7,14,15 with a double ￥￥ key with 5

The Wager ( 5-horse Box * above horses) for ￥1000 Each-Way Exacta except for # 5 which has ￥2000 Each-Way

NHK MILE CUP

Tokyo 11 RACE

Have to simplify things on the blog until I get a few decent returns. I'm going to box 1,4,12,17 with a little more ￥ on Real Impact.

THE WAGER:
12-ticket each way Exacta Box with 1,4,12,17 for ￥1000 , except the #1 for ￥2000 Each -Way with 4,12,17. ( Total ￥18,000) ** substitute #12 with #13 !! ***

Principal Stakes

Tokyo 11 Race.....#8 Target Machine. Pulling the trigger on Target. Tomorrow I will stake my largest wager of the year on a horse that came in LAST his previous race. Still a top 5 pick according to the morning line, the betting public is throwing out this race and wagering his talents will resurface themselves once again come post time. Trainer Munakata has worked the last two months on getting Targets tension level down. " He couldn't relax in the Yayoi" stressed the trainer so jockey Tanaka had no choice but to let him run. From March 25th until April 14th, Target was predominantly doing pool workouts, a common tactic to ease tension on those horses susceptible to hypersensitivity. From March 30th until May 4th he had alternated from breeze workouts to bullet workouts. The " trackman" from Keibabook and Kachi Uma both had Target as their top " On Form" horse in their respected newspapers today. The Principal Stakes only invites the winner to the Derby. A few of the horses in this race such as 10, 17,18 need more purse money to qualify so at least a top 4 finish should put them there, but not Target. He needs to win it. This has been my Derby Selection since he won on January 8th ( Elvis' birthday, long story:) and with a firm track come tomorrow I love his chances.

The Wager # 8 with 6,10,15,17,18 ￥3000 One- Way Exacta Key 1st
6,10,15,17,18 with #8 ￥1000 One -Way Exacta Key 2nd
# 8 with 6,10,15,17,18 ￥3000 Random Trifectas ( 10 tickets)