Each way exactas( 6-10,9-10,5-10,8-10,10-11) A ten ticket insurance quinella box(5.6.8.9.11) The facts Mam, just the facts", an iconic line from a 60's television show is appropriate to summarize this years winner.
Fact #1 Otonishi is the leading Kansai trainer.
Fact #2 Uchida is the leading Kanto Jockey.
Fact #3 Of all the horses that can BENIFIT from an added distance since their previous race is only one.
Fact #4 The name ROCKS!!
My selection for the 09 JapanCup is OKEN BRUCE LEE.
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#9 Reach the Crown has a great " energy pace distribution" rating. If Take can get a comfortable pace? Watch out! # 5 Red Desire has the tactical speed to run on the lead shall Crown falter.#6Vodka will be in a position to make her signature move. Doubts prevail if she can win at 2400 again but Sumi is a master at conditioning. The opportunity will be there. #8Meiner Kultz--Never underestimate a Kunieda trained horse! He is healthy and thats enough to be a potential ticket buster.#11 Marsh Side--Drysdale has something " under the hood" here. I'm not sure what it is but then again I'm not a mechanic.
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#16 Conduit..What ever chance he had went out with the bath water after the terrible draw. His future is secure so don't see an over aggresive ride considering. The doctors oath" First do no harm" applies here as well.
#18 Screen Hero...Not the same horse as last year.Look at the replays of his previous races and at the 2200 mark his tank is running on empty and soon to be empty.
#1 Asakusa Kings..His last race was a real head scratcher!?..Remember, he was running stride for stride with last years Cup runner up Deep Sky until the last 100m.
#3 Air Shady...Not sure if there is any BIG RACE left in the 8 year old?
8 comments:
Very solid picks - Reach The Crown could definitely pull an upset if he doesn't come under too much pressure from Cosmo Bulk, Eishin Deputy etc. - but I can't take Marsh Side over Conduit. Yes, you're right to question whether or not Conduit is really here to win but his connections are eligible for lucrative bonuses if he does. He's proven that he travels well, has won on a left-handed track, loves this distance, and has true class (at least as good as Ouija Board). He's a risky pick to be sure but also too attractive for me to ignore...I think I'll go with Conduit, Red Desire and Oken Bruce Lee (and yeah, the name definitely rocks!).
How about RED DESIRE?
Sean, it is a risky wager not to include Conduit for sure. As someone who bets every weekend I look for value and I dont see it here. If he wins it wont break my bankroll and I dont see a big payoff regardless. I appreciate your comments, please keep them coming! Good Luck tomorrow
mcwong,
Red Desire is becoming a great under-lay at 8.5. She has great tactical speed at any pace. The Japan Cup is unique in the sense that if a horse doesn't win it on its first try then it never will. You wont get 8.5 next year on her. I think Bruce still will show a strong effort( yes, its his second time.LOL) but you won half the battle at getting a good price. Good Luck, and come again
HI! Vodka performed excellent and got the 7th winner of GI racing - her the 10th winner. Oken Bruce Lee just a nose behind and Red Desire got the 3rd place. Really wonderful Japan Cup Racing.
Great japan Cup! My clients and I would have enjoyed it more had Bruce came in 1st but all told this is the sixth straight winning (profit) I've had for the Cup. Next week Dirt is all lined up and ready to fire!!...Red Desire did as well as expected...it was a good selection Mc wong.
Keith
Yes, great race. I too would've preferred Bruce Lee to pick off Vodka on the line but Uchida held off just a little too long. If Bruce goes to the Arima he'll have to run a different kind of race if he's to win. It's a shame that Vodka won't be able to run in the Arima (not that she'd have much of a chance)..Conduit didn't seem to have his usual final kick. That pace should've suited him perfectly. Blame it on the tight schedule?
Sean, I agree. I like 2500m for Lee but Nakayama will present a few hurdles for him. Silk Justice from way back resembles Bruce in a lot of ways, most obvious one -trick ponies that need a pace.
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