Took my first real look at the Takarazuka Kinen today. Firstly, I'm sure I wont be boxing many horses. Secondly, as much as I would love to leave out Buenna Vista and her 1.9 odds, its just not gonna happen.
1.Dream Journey: Of course the obvious threat if he has completely healed.
2.Jaguar Mail: Could be wrong but I don't see this horse winning back to back G1s ...Competitive for sure though
3.Logi: Interesting choice. I don't really care that Yokoyama is off him
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In a perfect scenario I would like to take Vista and one other from the three above and use them in some trifectas with some dark horses such as Forgettable, Earnestly, or Seiun Wonder( my alima selection) to a lesser extent. However I don't have any reason to believe that it wont be any other horses other than these three. I'll configure something to at least try to win enough to pay for my Blu-ray orders from amazon the other day! Sounds like a plan.....sort of.
4 comments:
A similar result to that of the Kyoto kinen this year wouldn't be surprising at all. I agree with you that Logi Universe and Earnestly look pretty intriguing as well...
◎Buena
◯Dream Journey
▲Seiun Wonder, Earnestly, Logi Universe
I'm feeling semi-confident, but Dream Journey will probably not be bringing last year's form to this race so a third place (or worse) finish is certainly a possibility.
Sean, no Jaguar Mail?! I'd love to hear why you are leaving him out...I don't know so much about Seiun Wonder. Am I foolish to leave him out of my trifectas?
Robert,
Jaguar Mail is obviously a world class horse and probably in peak form. I backed him in the Tennosho. The 2200 at Hanshin, however, does not suit him, in my opinion. Because of the short homestretch, this course, unlike Kyoto, (usually) demands that you get very busy between the 3rd and 4th corners. To do well here, he'll have to run a different style of race than he's used to, and my rule is older horses don't learn new tricks. I feel good about cutting him but given his current form I definitely might regret it...Seiun Wonder is capable enough. He finished third in two of the three triple crown races last year. Forgettable finished ahead of him in both the Kikasho and Arima but 2000-2200m might be Seiun's best distance. If the track isn't a soggy mess I like him as at least a third place candidate. And he should offer good value. As you say, it might well turn out to be Buena, Jaguar and Dream again but the odds will suck. For me it's not about the number of wins and losses but the value of the wins. Actually, I'm tempted to cut Dream Journey too.
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