Don't Look TWO Gift Horses In The Mouth Come This Christmas

How I would love to go the road less traveled route to an eventual huge end of the year payout by eliminating the two " power couple" of my tickets, but thankfully after cutting myself of the egg nog I've landed back to reality.

The only window of opportunity abet a very narrow one is if they don't come in one/two in the finish and get split up by some stretch closer?! The last time the Alima was run on Christmas, Zenno Rob Roy romped home in record time. I'm going to spread some extra holiday magic on his son, Pelusa , doing the same and resurrect his career off his dismal finish in the Japan Cup.

The Wager : 9-1-4, 1-9-4 , 9-4-1, 1-4,9, ￥3000 Straight Trifectas
4-1-9, 4-9-1 ￥2000 Straight Trifectas

9-(3,7,8,13)-1
1-(3,7,8,13)-9
￥1000 Straight Trifectas ( 8 tickets)

1-4, 4-9 ￥5000 WIDE Ticket


>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Saturday December 24th

Nakayama

9th Race...#3 Bewitch Us...

The Wager : # with 1,2,5,6,8 ￥1000 Each-Way Exacta ￥1000 WIDE Tickets

12th Race..#7 Target Machine is ALREADY back. He is finally running well. Strike while the iron is HOT!!

The Wager: #7 with 1,2,3,8,10 ￥1000 Each-Way Exacta ￥1000 WIDE Tickets
7 & 8 with 1,2,3,10,12, ￥1000 Random Trios ( 5 ) Tickets
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

**** HANSHIN 11 Race...#12 TRIP Hiroyoshi Matsuda has himself a good looking horse and the name isn't Buena Vista.

The Wager: #12 with 1,2,3,6,10,13,16 ￥1000 Each -Way Exacta
12 & 1,2,3,6,10,13 & 16 ￥1000 Straight Trifecta
12 & 1,2,3,6,10,16 & 13 ￥1000 Straight Trifecta
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Dec 25th, possible play on #1 Omega Blue Line in the 11th at Nakayama

Alfredo Is This Weekends Main Dish

December 18th

Nakayama 11 Race...#3 ALFREDO Coming off a Grade 1 victory last week in Hong Kong and a superb ride on Jorden in the Japan Cup, Craig Williams looks to continue the hot streak and serve up another delicacy on Alfredo. The heaviest horse in the field of sixteen is still brilliantly fleet of foot witnessed by a 33.2 stretch run last time out. Two for two at the distance ,this horse has a real chance to continue his run at being undefeated and MIGHT not even be the favorite come post time. A good value on a horse that encompasses all handicapping merit.

The Wager: #3 with 1,4,6,7,15,16 ￥3000 Each-Way Exacta
3 & 1,4,6,7,15,& 16 ￥1000 Straight Trifectas
1,4,6,7,15, & 3 &16 ￥1000 Straight Trifectas
3 & 1,4,6,7,16 & 15 ￥1000 Straight Trifectas
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

December 17th

Nakayama 12th Race

#13 Omega Blue Hawaii... Running well as of late but getting 6.4 because of his inefficiencies at 1600 M ( 0-5). The first time at the course in his 15 race career might prove to his liking.

#13 with 2,4,6,8,10 ￥1000 Each-Way Exactas
#13 with 2,4,6,8,10 ￥1000 WIDE tickets

Hanshin 11th Race

#12 Smile Jack..One of my favorites here. Wont spread him around but at 15-1 I wont need to.
Granted not much as of late but is always capable.

The Wager: #12 with 1,11,16,18 ￥1000 Each Way Exactas
￥1000 WIDE ticket
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>


10th Race ( Hanshin)

#3 Liberty Valance..Very good dirt numbers and has been very consistent all year. Second outing in the higher class but his effort for 3rd in the last outing is good enough here for a higher spot.

#3 with 2,6,9,13,14 ￥1000 Each Way Exacta

* I'll play around with Shonan Alba in tomorrows main, also on Sunday in the 8th in Nakayama, Crawford, could be an intriguing choice.>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

UPDATE* Will post Crawford as a blog post

Nakayama 8th...# 3 This Sunday Racing fillie won her last race quite impressively I felt. Going up in class but not getting much attention at 13-1. I like her chances here.
The Wager #3 with 4,8,11,13,16 ￥1000 Each Way Exacta
￥1000 WIDE Tickets

Juvenile Fillies

Nakayama 9th Race #9 Hiraboku Bijin Two out of two at the distance and course. The last three races, her weight has fluctuated from 452 to 486? to her most recent at 466. Coming off a summer layoff it looks like a potential fire here especially with Goto back on board.

The Wager #9 with 1,2, 4,11,13 ￥1000 Each Way Exacta





Hanshin 11 Race...#12 La Scintillante...Ran 1600 M last time out in a winning time of 1.34.4 and fastest last furlongs at a 34.9 clip. Most of the field coming from shorter distances so will stick with a horse that has already proven her merit at the same call and has room for further maturity here.

The Wager: #12 with 2,8,11,13,16,18 ￥2000 Each-Way Exacta

Target Machine's Last Stand

Nakayama 12th Race..#11 Target Machine....came in 3rd last time out paying in a 45,000￥ trifecta.
This is the shortest interval between races and another class drop for a horse that is primed to finally break through. A bullet workout on Dec 6th is a indication that Munakata finally has this horse primed for a big effort and an eventual successful Spring campaign.

The Wager: 11 with 1,3,4,5,6,7,8 ￥2000 Each-Way Exacta
￥10,000 WIN Ticket ( morning odds 4.2)
1,4,5,6,7,8, & 11 & 3 ￥2000 Straight Trifecta
11 & 1,4,5,6,7,8, & 3 ￥2000 Straight Trifecta
11 & 3 & 1,4,5,6,7,8 ￥1000 Straight Trifecta
1,4,5,6,7,8 & 3& 11 ￥1000 Straight Trifecta

* not putting the favorite #3 on top since a probable ticket with Target in the mix probably wouldn't pay all that well anyways. Will take the risk on that one.

Turquoise Stakes

Nakayama 11 Race: #9 Ginza Bonanza....Between July 2nd and August 20th, Bonanza hit the boards at three different tracks and at three different distances. Particular enlightening is the July 2nd 1600 m race at Nakayama where she tuned in at 1.32.9, which if repeated can put her back on the boards after two " off races".

The Wager: #9 with 6,8,11,12,14 ￥2000 Each-Way Exacta


THE JAPAN CUP DIRT
Hanshin 11 Race

#9 Wonder Acute...4th last time out off a record race time in May. Getting 18-1 on a horse that has five career wins in Hanshin and all with the same jock on his back.

The Wager #9 with 6,16 ￥3000 Each-Way
6,9,16 & 6,9,16 & 6,9,16 ￥1000 Straight Trifectas

Hanshin 10th race..#11 Suzuki Scorpion
The Wager: #11 with 7,9,12 15 ￥1000 Each-Way Exacta

THREE'S NOT A CROWD IN THE JAPAN CUP

< PELUSA






Much like one ditsy blond, a level headed brunet, and a swinging bachelor dominated the American TV ratings in the late 70's likewise a similar Threes Company should dominate the boards in tomorrows running of the Japan Cup.

The cast of characters in this race include the two female leads Buena Vista and Danedream and Pelusa inheriting the role made famous by the late comic genius of John Ritter.

The Script: A dazzling 33.6 stretch time in his last race off an ill advised attempt at 3400m hints at an even bigger effort here especially on a predicted fast turf has #7 PELUSA, finally accepting the invite to the G1 winners circle after a career long campaign of simply being a contender. Ticket holders will no doubt need ice water in their veins as Pelusa 's proverbial late kick will once again make for another climatic stretch run.>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

#2 Buena Vista... There seems to be a silent majority that thinks Vista is vulnerable to another bad outing here. I'm not one of them. The comments from the connections about " revenge" from last year and the jockey insisting there will be a better ride than the error filled Tenno holds water with me. The fast track and course shapes up to be another superior run by the best horse in Japan if not the world.

#13 Danedream...I cant remember the last time I had a foreign entrant rated this high. What impressed me more than her " Ark" victory was that literally a few days before the race Japanese owner/breeder Teruya Yoshida bought majority shares in her and now is sitting on a gold mine. Most new owners merely run the Cup as the last race before retiring to stud in Japan. Not Danedream. The financial windfall of not only this race, but her bright future as a 3yr-old and beyond is not going unnoticed by anyone, including the connections that will have her ready for a big effort here.>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
4 yr-old class

Yes, this brilliant group is not heading into the Cup with the same fanfare as last year but I'm not going to leave out any of these trifecta busters due to a disappointing race or layoff.

#3 Rose Kingdom, #6 To The Glory, #8 Victoria Pisa, #15 Eishin Flash
*************************************************************************************

THE WAGER... 7-2, 7-13, ￥10,000 One Way Exacta
2-7,2-13,7-13, ￥10,000 Quinellas

Straight Exactas:( 2,7,13) &( 2,7,13) & (2,3,6,7,8,13,15) ￥1000 36 Tickets

Insurance Savers #7 with 3,6,8,15 ￥1000 Each-Way Exactas
#2 with 3,6,8,15 ￥2000 Each-Way Exactas

Total Ticket Package Outlay: ￥100,000
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
SUPPLEMENTAL SELECTIONS:

BEST BET TOKYO 9TH RACE
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
TOKYO 9th Race....# 4 HUNGRY JACK...# 10 ADMIRE BURTON
Matsuda trained Burton looks poised to make his debut mark at Tokyo a successful one. A fast running track looks to be a ideal set up for a horse that had a 32.7 time two races out. Hungry broke his maiden here last year in impressive fashion and a repeat visit to the winners circle is a very possible outcome.


The Wager: #10 with 1,2,4,13,14,15 ￥2000 Each-Way Exacta
#4 with 1,2,13,14,15 ￥1000 Each-Way Exacta
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

8th Race Will buy BRACKETS on the outside contenders #15 #16
The Wager: BRACKET QUINELLAS 2-8,5-8,7-8,8-8 ￥3000 Each

11th Race: An ending race day wager again dutching two horses #5 and #16

The Wager: #5 with 1,3,7,9,16 ￥1000 Each-Way Exacta
# 16 with 1,3,7,9 ￥1000 Each-Way Exacta

TVK SHO

< Target Machine..My Derby Horse and Bankroll Builder

Tokyo 9th Race....#6 Target Machine A real " Ugly Betty" on the recent form . Last four results respectively 11th,10th.4th and most recent at 40-1, a 13th finish but his probable odds tomorrow 6-1!!

A true class drop that will only be dampened by the surface. Tough to figure how Target or any of these horses will handle it thus I cant pull the trigger as much as I would otherwise be inclined to, but a real chance for a good effort.

The Wager] #7 with 1,2,6,8 ￥5000 Each-Way Exacta #7 with 3,4,10 ￥2000 Each-Way Exacta
# 7 & 2,3,4,6,8,10 & 1 Straight Trifecta ￥1000 6 tickets
# 7 & 1,2,3,4,8,10 & 6 Straight Trifecta ￥1000 <>

1,2,3,4,8,10 & 7 & 6 Straight Trifecta ￥1000 <>
2,3,4, 6,8,10f & 7 & 1 Straight Trifecta ￥1000 <>

Kyoto 11 Race Mile Championship

# 11 Grand Prix Boss....Throw out the Swan Stakes and his attempt overseas and we have a very good looking 3yr old that has already TWO G1 victories under his young saddle and getting 13-1.

The Wager #11 with 5,7,8,13,17,18 ￥1000 Each Way Exacta

Queen Elizabeth G1

Kyoto 11th Race: #2 Italian Red... Handled the Tokyo course in workman like fashion on the same day as the Shuka Sho. A step up in class even though she's at the age of 5 ,but I anticipate another strong effort here.

The Wager: 2 with 1,3,8,14,18 ￥1000 Each-Way Exacta

Paradise Stakes

Tokyo 10th Race... Off track probable for this 1400M turf race. Looking to box some horses that should be up near or in front of what looks like to be some slow fractions.

The Wager: 2,4,5,6,10 Box Quinellas at ￥1000 ( 10 tickets) ....................................................................................................

Kyoto 11 Race... Look for #2 Danon Ballade to hit the boards in this one.

Copa Argentina

Tokyo 11 Race... Going to dutch the top two contenders in a somewhat lackluster field of inconsistent stayers.

The Wager # 4 with 6, 11,,16,17,18 ￥500 Each Way Exacta
#12 with 6,11,16,17,18 ￥1000 Each Way Exacta

Kyoto Sho Fantasy

Kyoto: 11th Race #17 Bewitch Us....Will get around 15-1 here but the high number is because of the bad draw. She ran very well in Nakayama without a desirable pace and hoping a pick up in speed and the longer stretch can compensate for the gate.

The Wager: 17 with 1,5,9,12,14 ￥1000 Each-Way Exacta

Tenno Sho

#5 Buena Vista Always sharp and needless to say one very consistent race horse. The competition is formidable but I'm wagering Pelusa and Dash will fall short as usual while eying a better result in the Japan Cup and Earnesty really got a disadvantage being slotted on the far gate. Kingdom has a jockey that I'm not very familiar with and thus somewhat hesitant to rate him higher than I normally would.

The Wager : 5 & 1,2,7,10 & 4,7,8,11 ￥1000 Straight Trifecta
5 with 1,2,7,10 ￥1000 Each-Way Exacta

Betting Against History Tomorrow

All week people have been asking me if there will be a Triple Crown Winner this year and my cop-out answer has been 50-50. Whats there not to like about Orfevre? Its difficult, he has done everything that has been asked of him. Its a cerebral decision on on my part more than anything. I didn't get on his bandwagon until after the Satsuki-Sho, which I don't like to do. I like to spot my horses early and play them often. Bottom line..I very underestimated Orfevre talent level. However a lot of things have gone very right this year to set up this opportunity for history. Back to back classic races at the SAME track( Tokyo) and VERY bad weather on both racing days and not to mention an interruption in training brought about by the March 11th earthquake. I get the feeling Orfevre is winning BECAUSE of these unusual events rather than IN SPITE of them. Looking at the field of 17 horses you would have to imagine there is at least one 3yr-old that hasn't shown his peak form yet and can deny destiny? and yet its also easy to see that this field is somewhat marginal and Orf will romp. Take it worth a grain of salt but Win Variation has been coming close under less than desirable conditions for him!! Tomorrow no rain in the forecast, a potential more beneficial pace and 100,000 fans walk away disappointed. ...........******L'lle d ' Aval....Came in 3rd last race with high weight. I really like the jockey change here as Aval seemed somewhat lazy on that October 1st race. A graded race level horse getting a very soft spot. My race of the weekend!!

The Wager: Kyoto 11th race... 13-14-1,5,8,17,18 Straight Trifecta ￥1000 ( 5 Tickets)
13 with 1,5,8,17,18 One Way Exacta￥1000 (5 Tickets)

Tokyo 10th Race...#3 with 1,4,5,9,10,11 ￥2000 Each-Way Exacta
#3 with 1,4,5,9,10,11 ￥1000 Random Trios

Shuka Sho

Kyoto 11 Race

#4 ..Aventura...Really coming into her form cycle suggest a big effort here.

The Wager: A Each-Way Exacta with #4 and 1,8,9,12,16,18 ￥1000
A Random Trio Keying #4 with 1,8,9,12,16,18 (16 Tickets) ￥1000

October 15th

Tokyo 11 Race....#9 Tosen Reve. Granted it might be a sloppy track here but it still looks like a doable 1st or 2nd place trip for Reve.

The Wager #9 with 2,3,4,7 ￥2000 Each Way Exacta

Nambu Hai

Tokyo 11 Race...#5 Renforcer... Dirt track running deep and slow over the weekend might be a slight advantage in enabling a better run against the two more capable horses.

The Wager # 5 with 7,11 ￥ 3000 One-Way Exacta
7,11 with #5 ￥ 1000 One-Way Exacta

Mainichi Okan

Tokyo 11 Race... # 8 Dark Shadow...Opening weekend and the course seems to be running to his liking!

The Wager: #8 with 3, 7,9 ￥2000 Each-Way Exactas

SPRINTERS STAKES

Nakayama 11 Race

# 8 Dasher GO GO ....Had success in this race last year and coming in 3rd in the Centaur Stakes off a snails pace leads me to believe that he's in fine form to take advantage of the far more blistering fractions here and perhaps edge out the Hong Kong congruency running along side him.* or hopefully behind:)

The Wager: 8-1, 8-5, ￥10,000 Straight Exacta
8 on top of 6,7,9,10,16 ￥1000 Straight Exacta
8 & 6,7,9,10,16 & 5 ￥500 Straight Trios
8 & 6,7,9,10,16 & 1 ￥500 Straight Trios

STV SHO

Sapporo 11 Race...# 2 ABLE VEGA & HIRABOKU IMPACT.... The other two tracks have Graded races running but with their low priced favorites taking away any particular value that was there ,I will dutch a couple of contenders in this 1500 meter affair.

The Wager: # 2 with 3,7,12,14 ￥1000 Each-Way Exacta
# 3 with 7,12,14 ￥1000 Each-Way Exacta

Elm Stakes

Sapporo 11 Race...#5 Renforcer should take his 1.8 backing all the way to the winners circle in this lightly packed rare Monday G3.

The Wager: #5 with 2,4,6,10,11 ￥1000 Each-Way Exacta

#5 & ( 2,4,6,10,11) &( 2,4,6,10,11) ￥1000 Straight Trios

St. Lite Kinen

< Target Machine * photo courtesy of Kate Hunter at www.keiblog.com

NAKAYAMA 11 Race...#12 Target Machine...A wager fully on potential and not based on his recent outings. A probable 30-1 starter hasn't shown any of the early talent that had him the favorite in the Yayoi-sho along with Sadamu Patek. Surely a nice bankroll builder if Target can hit the boards but if not ,here's hoping for a dismal showing and not a value inflating 4th or 5th place finish.

The Wager: #12 with 1,2,8,11,14 ￥1000 Each-way Exacta
# 12 with 1,2,8,9,11,14..￥10000 Random Trios

Centaur Stakes G2

HANSHIN 11 RACE....#8 Tokai Mystery...Had to carry only 52 kilos in her win last month in the Kita Kyushu and now is asked to run with 55. A good part of these entrants seem to be sharpening themselves for the Mile in early October including the Hong Kong challengers, thus will stay with a recent winning form in spite of the extra weight.

The Wager: #8 with 2,3,7,9,14 ￥1000 Each-Way Exacta

September 4th

Niigata 11Race

#11 ..Just A Way...Came in at a very fit 494 kilos in his maiden and accompanied by a brisk 33.3 off a slow pace, has this Hearts Cry foal looking very feasible for another good effort here.

The Wager. #11 with 1,2,7,10,15,17 ￥1000 Each-Way Exactas
# 11 with 1,2,7,10,15,17 ￥1000 Random Trios

Niigata 10th Race; September 3rd

#2 Gustive Cry....Shonan Mighty breezed to an easy victory two weeks ago coming from the very same race Gustive is, back on May 28th. Big class differential, just depends on the layoff.

The Wager #2 with 1,8, ￥5000 Each-Way #2 with 13,14 ￥3000 Each Way

Niigata Kinen....A Crystal Clear Winner?

Niigata 11th Race

#5 Narita Cyrstal....Last race out a seemly effortless ride turned into a big disappointment as Take Yutaka steered Narita right into an onslaught of traffic. This time around with a short field and a less than steller talent level, Crystal should duplicate last years winning effort in this very race.

The Wager: # 5 with 2,4,7 ￥4000 Each Way Exacta
# 5 with 3,6,8 ￥1000 Each Way Excata

Straight Trifectas. (5) & (2)& (3) (4) (6) (7)(8)
(2) & (5) & (3)(4)(6)(7)(8)
(5) & (3)(4)(6)(7)(8) & (2)

All Trifectas ￥1000

Kita-Kyushu Kinen

Kokura 11 Race

#6 A Shin Virgo...Extreme weight handicaps all away around here, but at 55.5 on this Falbrav/Thunder Gulch sire, especially at 1200 meters looks very doable.

The Wager: 5,6,8,9,10... ￥1000 Exacta Each-Way Box, except with #6 @ ￥2000

Sekiya Kinen

Niigata 11 Race

#5 Sacred Valley...Not a true miler but with a more than above average class line and recent good outings, could very well propel him to a duplicate performance like last years race ( 2nd) or possibly better.

The Wager: #5 with 2,7,9,10,11,12 ￥2000 Each-Way Exacta ￥24,000

( #2 Absolute.. @ 45-1 but a veteran that could fire if he wants to. Wearing blinkers for the first time in his 7-yr career. ￥5000 Show Ticket.......2# with 7,9,10,11 12 ￥500 Quinellas

Kokura Kinen

Kokura 11 Race.....# 2 Narita Crystal.....Came in 4th in this race last year, but might be a little bit sharper here this time off a 2-month layoff.

The Wager: (2,6,8,12,15) Exacta Box for ￥1000, except ＃2 for ￥2000

Hakodate Kinen

Hakodate 11 Race.....# 15 Edono Yamato

The Wager. 2,3,5, 15,16 ￥1000 Each-Way Exacta. ￥2000 with # 15 only

Summer Dash

Niigata 11 Race....# 12 Abe Dutch Man

The Wager: 3,4,9,10.,12 ( Exacta Each Way Box) 　￥1000 except #12 @ ￥2000

Tanabata Sho

Nakayama 11 Race....#2 Animate Bio. Having started her 011 campaign in the G1 Victoria Mile, and then in less than a month a seemingly fit Bio ran in the Epsom. Now back in what might appear to be a favoritism to a clockwise course, jockey Goto, has the rail to bring home a potential winner, in what will be his last race in Japan until September 17th.

The Wager 2-9, 9-2, ￥5000 Each-Way Exacta
2&9 with 3,4,10,11,15,16 ￥1000 Trios

Missed Target

Not a bad effort yesterday by Target. but since he was in perfect position through out the race a better result was warranted.

Robert noticed that he seemed to slow down, kick off his hind heels , and speed up again. Target* in the blue < right pic, literally looks like he is skipping down the stretch, with his heels coming straight back.

I'll continue to back him, but I would like to see him come back sooner than the previous 2 month interval and maybe race in a slightly lower class level, but then I wont get the odds.

Radio Nikkei Sho

Nakayama 11 Race.....#5 Target Machine....Morning Line has him at a very generous 18-1. Trainer Munakata is usually quick to pull the jockey, but regular rider Tanaka is still on board ,which suggest they are biding their time waiting for this horse to put it all together.

The Wager: #5 with 1, 7,8 ￥1000 Each-Way Exacta
#5 with 2,10,13 ￥2000 Each-Way Exacta
#5 with 1,2,7,8,10,13 ￥1000 Random Trios************************************************

10th Race....#5 Young at Heart... The largest differential on my speed spread sheets of the day between one horse and its nearest competitor. Getting just 2.0 but the race really only breaks a few ways.

The Wager: #5 with 4,6 ￥10,000 One Way Exactas

July 2

Nakayama 10th Race

#3 Kilauea...Last two races were competitive at a higher class level. Drops down here and looks to figure.

The Wager: #3 with 7,9,11,14,15 ￥1000 Each-Way Exacta

Pathetic Returns

Here is a link to the TCK Teio Sho this past week at Oii Race Course. I'm not sure what people are thinking when they bet into such one sided pools. A straight trifecta paying less than 300 yen??

http://japanracing.jp/_info/2011graded/graded14.html

I KO PIKO R.I.P

I KO PIKO, meaning the " highest peak", in the native Hawaiian language, had to be put down after coming up lame in last Sunday's Geshi Stakes.

Piko had 4 wins in his short career, the lone graded one, The Kobe Shinbun Hai on September 29th ,2009.

Looking back at my records, I couldn't find using him as a key horse but I always seemed to use him in my combinations though. His name had a certain ring to it. There is no doubt he probably would have come up big in a race at some point in his still young career. Too bad.

KEIBAGOLD

Since the last update on February 12th,

Total Wagers: 24
Total Wagers Won: 7
Total Wagers Lost: 17
Total Amount Wagered : ￥672,000
Total Amount Returned: ￥541,000
Net Profit: 0
Net Loss: -￥131,000
********************************************************************
Total 2011 Results

Total Wagers: 34
Wagers Won 9
Wagers Lost 25
Net Profit ￥219,000

Keibagold Current Overall Profit + ￥851,000
********************************************************************

The winning percentage looks very anemic for sure but its actually in line with my overall strategy of wagering. Some astute handicapper said ( I couldn't find the actual quote) that there is a 75% chance your bankroll will always be decreasing from the previous days amount. This certainly has always held true for me. I try to relax and flow with the tides of the stormy seas, which is horse racing handicapping, just trying to stay above water long enough until that life saver jacket of a big win is thrown down to me every 3 or 4 times a year. This year ,I can thank two horses from saving me from drowning. Smile Jack on February 12th and Headliner on May 21st. Looking back on this years first half, I see only one race I regret betting ( the amount) and that was the Tenno. Risking 100,000 on one race seemed very ignorant for sure. This summer I will " box play" most of my wagers , except for this weekend where I will single out Target Machine* yes, again.:)....By the end of the summer, I will bet that the losing percent of these "boxes" will be higher than the winning, but there will be an overall net profit. Rather it be in mid-July or August, a couple mid-price fliers will come in together to give me that " life jacket" of a race to keep me afloat.

Takarazuka: A Summer Suprise?

Buena Vista's proverbial late spurt might be her undoing this Sunday, as yielding track conditions look to be more of an advantage for her contenders rather than the " Queen of the Turf" herself.

Rulership and Earnesty took to similar conditions quite well in the Kinko Sho last month. Namura Cresent faltered down the stretch in last years running but looks to be in better form this time around. To The Glory, has a chance as well as long as regular jockey Fukunaga can take the lead early and maintain a " controlled pace". Rose Kingdom, with new jockey Williams, should be sitting pretty off the pace enabling him to make a "kick" come stretch time that wasn't there in the Tenno-Sho.

The Wager: Straight Trifecta Keying #8 for 2nd....( 2,3,9,14) & ( 8) & (1,2,3,9,14) * 16 tickets ￥1000
Straight Trifecta Keying #8 for 3rd....( 2,3,9,14) & (2,3,4,9,14) & (8) * 16 tickets ￥1000

Each-Way Exacta Box (2,3,9,14) * 12 tickets ( ￥1000 ) Total Wager ￥48,000

June 19th

Hanshin 11 Race

# 13 .Provinage.. Trainer Kojima has been doing well as of late at this course and with a recent dead rail at Hanshin, this might be the extra advantage an outside gate will benifit from.

The Wager: Boxing 1,5,8,11,13 ￥1000 Each-Way Exacta except # 13 which will be wagered at ￥2000.

June 18th

Nakayama 11 Race

#7 Meiner Obelisk

The Wager: #7 with 1,6,8,9,10 ￥1000 Each-Way Exactas

Epsom Cup

Tokyo 11 Race

# 6 Sacred Valley...soft conditions going tomorrow could net him two in a row.

The Wager # 6 with 2,5,16,17,18 ￥1000 Each-Way Exacta

A Table Set For YOYO

The early speed breaking from the outside gates, hurrying to battle a clean starting Silport, will most likely prove a insurmountable disadvantage for all concern, as the pace breaks and the stretch runners turn it on.

#13 Craig Williams has had some impressive stretch runs this Tokyo meet and I'm wagering the run he wanted with Tosen Reve last week, he will get this weekend with DANON YOYO

#8 Yes, the schedule is tight with two G1 races in a span of three weeks but I'm trusting trainer Kunieda knows the limitations of his prized girl and I'm not going to layoff any horse that can beat Buenna, regardless of the short interval. APAPANE

#3 One of my favorites here in a desirable spot. The odds will be above 10, and mid-pace style of running that jockey Miura favors with him could be the play, especially if his positioning holds and the pace doesn't. SMILE JACK

The Wager: 3-13, 8-13, ￥5000 Each-Way Exacta ( 3-8, ￥ 3000 Each -Way Exacta
1-3, 3-4, 3-5, 3-9, 1-13, 4-13, 5-13, 9-13 ￥1000 Each- Way Exacta

ORFEVRE : LOOKING AT A DERBY WINNER

After a lot of effort trying to get that square peg in that round hole, an anecdotal expression meaning in handicapping terms, finding a long shot that's not there , I decided to take the easier approach and put the peg where it belongs and likewise with my handicapping go with the proven horse , abet the favorite # 5 Orfevre.

Four good efforts in a row with final furlong fractions the fastest in all four races. Dominant trainer, and a surface running the same as his previous race, where he left every horse in the mud.

#10 Nakayama Knight: I cant say he took to the surface in the Satsuki coming in 5th, but I believe it was more his conditioning than anything else. He never got that acceleration going, but if he can stay up near the pack I think he might have a chance to take off.

#11 Debonair. He usually runs closer to the pace than he did last time out but a bad break did him in. Having said that he came from 14th to finish an impressive 4th. Like Knight, if Dettori can keep him closer or even mid pack he has that potential to drive it home once again.

#2 Sadamu Patek: I really liked this horse earlier in the week based on the Satsuki Sho. Literally, he had to move through a guantlet of horses and still finished 2nd. I got a late feeling that maybe the mojo isn't there quite yet, meaning he will still find a way to get in trouble or come up short. His bloodlines are somewhat a concern at 2400m too. Certainly I'm not abandoning him, but a downgrade.

#13. Roccaverano: A money horse that suddenly finds the Derby veteran Yutaka on his back. Other horses look statistically more attractive but you cant put a price tag on experience.

#16 Tosen Reve: The only horse that has been in the money in all his races. Going to continue to ride the momentum.

#15 Tosen Ra: Another horse trained by a very competent trainer that didn't run his race last time out.

The Wager: A 6-horse box (2,5,10,11,13,16) for ￥1000 Each-Way Exacta, except for #5 for ￥3000 Each Way Exacta. Also 5-15 for ￥3000 each-Way Exacta

Key #5 with (2,10,11,13,15,16) in random trifectas ( 15 tickets) for ￥2000 each.