Blog Bankroll: ( Overall)+ ￥662,000
2011 Current Results:
Races Bet: 5
W/L 1-4
Current 011 Profit/Loss -￥11,000
* charity races are not included in the overall blogs bankroll*
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Nakayama 11 Race...#11 Smart Robin..Very versatile horse that had a great pace number last time out going for the lead for the first time in his 4 starts. First time at the track but if he breaks as well as the last outing he most definitely could eat this course up!
The Wager # 11 with 2 & 9 ￥5000 Each-Way Exactas
# 11 with 5,7,8 ￥2000 Each-Way Exactas
23 comments:
Robert, Chicago at -10 . I believe the old Hassleback will return and throw about 3 picks to that stodgy Bears defense. About the Hilton, actually you cant send them in. They have to be turned in personally each week. The only way we could do is to pay a courier that will do it for us. Trust is the main issue here. There are about 3 such services operating in Vegas now.
The Keisei Hai is definitely the main race to play from a gambling perspective but I just don't have time for it. I might go with your picks. Feeling confident?
They're forecasting snow in Kansai tomorrow. Robert, please keep us posted on that. I think Rose K is beatable but a Rulership-Rose or Hiruna-Rose exacta still wouldn't offer much in way of odds. If I can get at least 40-1 on a Rulership-Rose-Hiruno or Rulership-Hiruno-Rose trifecta or the same with Hiruno on top I might play it.
Sean, I'm hoping Robins gets out front again like his last race. If so yeah, with his last number he could easily go wire to wire. Saying that, even on bad starts he seems to be able to control himself...I couldn't find any horse coming directly from the Japan Cup to the Nikkei. Not sure if I'll play it ,depending on earlier stuff but I doubt I'll put Rose on top of anything.
I will definitely keep you guys posted on the conditions, but snow should not be a factor, unless you consider snow flurries as an advantage/disadvantage. The tracks in Kyoto (Yodo) and Hanshin (Nigawa) are far enough away from the mountains that there is next to no chance that the snow will stick on the track. It would be like snow accumulating in downtown Vancouver. :)
I will have to find out if it's worth while or not after looking at the odds tomorrow, but IMO there is only one way to bet the Nikkei Shinshun if you even want to bet it all... In straight trifectas with Kingdom finishing 1st or 2nd with hiruno, rulership, gestalt, Cosmo and B.B taking the other places. Cheers!
Nakayama R11. 2 with 5,9,11 ¥2000 each way exactas. Cheers!
Robert, Kingdom could definitely win it but I doubt there will be much value in playing it that way. Not sure though. Maybe a Rose-Cosmo-Hiruno trifecta could get a decent return.
Keith, I'm going with your picks in the Keisei Hai but I'm gonna make (lucky?) 7-11 my main pick. Good luck guys and good night.
Sean, if I play it that way, I'd definitely be hoping for Kingdom to finish 2nd.
5 for first- 8,9,11,12,13 for second- 8,9,11,12,13 for third (20 tickets)
8,9,11,12,13 for first- 5 for second- 8,9,11,12,13 for third (20 tickets)
Honestly, I don't think Gestalt has much of a chance finishing first so I might be just throwing away money by betting him to win, but I just love that horse for some reason. :)
I need to see the odds first, though. They come up at 9am on Yahoo...
Keith, I tried finding that Gallop site for odds you were telling me about, but no luck.
PS The more and more I cap the Keisei, the more and more I love Fateful War. I think he may be Batman while the 11 horse is just Robin. :)
Robert, u most def could be right about the cape crusaders so I made 2-11 one of my priority picks along with Yokoyamas horse...I'll see if i can post the gallop site here but I think it is included in my JRA Wave Van membership so im not sure if I can paste or not.
Sean, you are right about those trifecta bets so I won't be playing them. I will make a few bets on Hiruno, though. I've backed this horse pretty much every time he's ran so just like someone who always plays the same lottery numbers, I have to back him. :) A 11-13, 11-12 or a 9-11 finish would be sweet, but I have a strong feeling Kingdom will place.
Also, I will be buying a little six in the Keisei.
Not looking good for the Keisei. Damn snow!
I take that last comment back.
Hiruno finally came through for me. Fateful War did what I expected, but unfortunately I didn't have 10...
War held on nicely . Robin didnt come close to batman, never recovered fully from his bad start.
Even with Rose finishing 3ed that trifecta payout seemed awfully small/...might have to go to bed early tonight since the Bears game is the first of 2...3am here
32-1. I'll take it. (And thank you to Take for practically riding Rose backwards.) That was my first win over 100,000 since last year's Sapporo Kinen. And it took me all of 5 minutes to decide my picks. (It's been known to take hours, days even.)
Toying with the idea of playing trifectas with the favorite locked into third. It would save a lot of time and the payouts would (usually) be good. Food for thought: Of the 48 races held this weekend at Kyoto and Nakayama, the favorite won 14 of them but finished third TEN times.
Congrats on the win. Yeah you could always key the favorite for third and use him / her in some Quinalla savers if he finishes higher. Ever the pessimist I'm not quite sold on War just yet particularly Stay Gold as a 3yr-old sire to champions. When is ur trip to Europe?
Thanks. Yeah, but on second thought I don't think you'd wanna do it every time. For certain races though I think it's a good strategy.
I leave next weekend.
Congrats Sean on the win. I guess you played the Rulership-Hiruno-Rose trifecta.
Keith, I bet your happy Seattle didn't go for 2 at the end there, eh?! That was almost one of the worst backdoor covers/pushes ever.
*you're :)
Wow, I got -10 , I went back to bed at halftime thinking it was in the bag!!..watching the jets/patriots game ow..i have nothing on it but im thinking Jets win Ill bet Pittsburg..if new england comes back then yeah, the patriots..chicago/greenbay is a tough one!
Sean, yeah that charity race in Kyoto was huge. I had a few extra exactas on 10 also. I have to get on this more , the goal for this week.
Keith, Sean must be emailing you directly and you are responding to him through the blog, right? Either that or I think I must be losing it a little bit. :)
lol..no sean had posted a message on my charity race link and I just continued the conversation here..I hit the kyoto 12th race yesterday with a 200-1 quinella payout....just finished watching jets game..both no,1 seeds fall...sometimes i wonder if the extra rest ( bye week) is a plus or negative
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