After a lot of effort trying to get that square peg in that round hole, an anecdotal expression meaning in handicapping terms, finding a long shot that's not there , I decided to take the easier approach and put the peg where it belongs and likewise with my handicapping go with the proven horse , abet the favorite # 5 Orfevre.
Four good efforts in a row with final furlong fractions the fastest in all four races. Dominant trainer, and a surface running the same as his previous race, where he left every horse in the mud.
#10 Nakayama Knight: I cant say he took to the surface in the Satsuki coming in 5th, but I believe it was more his conditioning than anything else. He never got that acceleration going, but if he can stay up near the pack I think he might have a chance to take off.
#11 Debonair. He usually runs closer to the pace than he did last time out but a bad break did him in. Having said that he came from 14th to finish an impressive 4th. Like Knight, if Dettori can keep him closer or even mid pack he has that potential to drive it home once again.
#2 Sadamu Patek: I really liked this horse earlier in the week based on the Satsuki Sho. Literally, he had to move through a guantlet of horses and still finished 2nd. I got a late feeling that maybe the mojo isn't there quite yet, meaning he will still find a way to get in trouble or come up short. His bloodlines are somewhat a concern at 2400m too. Certainly I'm not abandoning him, but a downgrade.
#13. Roccaverano: A money horse that suddenly finds the Derby veteran Yutaka on his back. Other horses look statistically more attractive but you cant put a price tag on experience.
#16 Tosen Reve: The only horse that has been in the money in all his races. Going to continue to ride the momentum.
#15 Tosen Ra: Another horse trained by a very competent trainer that didn't run his race last time out.
The Wager: A 6-horse box (2,5,10,11,13,16) for ￥1000 Each-Way Exacta, except for #5 for ￥3000 Each Way Exacta. Also 5-15 for ￥3000 each-Way Exacta
Key #5 with (2,10,11,13,15,16) in random trifectas ( 15 tickets) for ￥2000 each.
66 comments:
Hey guys, As you can see I pretty much stuck with the Satsuki horses except for Reve. Is anyone going to put a non satsuki on top of their ticket?
I'm probably going with Tosen Reve. He's got the Buena connection - good enough for me. Third and first in his last two races - both races were too slow for him to show off his pedigree but he gives a 100% every time...I'm downgrading Sadamu too. Will bet 16 in each way exactas with 4 or 5 horses then team him with Orfevre in a bunch of trios.
Won't have much time to study on the weekend so I wanna finalize my picks tonight. Keith, no love for Fateful War? Total betrayal. LOL I like 13 too and Dettori will definitely give Debonair every chance. Still on the fence with Tosen Ra. He's beaten Orfevre but I'm skeptical...I don't think Nakayama Knight can do well at 2400m. I don't think Belshazzar can either but I'm giving him the edge.
Sorry. I'm yapping a bit too much here but I wanna make one last plea for Cotillion. Can't make him my main pick obviously but he might be able to sneak in at least third and the odds should be delicious. I admit it's risky though...
LOL, yeah dropped war like a two ton bomb. I watched the satsuki and he just didnt look comfortable with the surface at all and its only going to be worse. Tosen ra at least had a late kick. I couldnt put Cotillion higher ( I had pretty much decided I liked only the satsuki horses from early this week) but he sometimes 3/5 misses the start and its up in the air at how he will react to the surface. I cant really add another horse to my box as it already stands at 30 tickets. When are u off to kyushu? tomorrow
Sean, you took the words right out of my mouth! Keith, no love for Fateful War?!
I'm sticking with the five I posted in the other thread: Sadamu, Win, Orfevre, Debonair and Reve. I think that Sadamu wins it and I'm starting to feel confident enough maybe even make him my key.
I have not completely ruled out Universal Bank and I've been even eyeing Cresco now a bit. Their sires are both former derby winners and it seems like they love the extra distance....
Yeah, I'm heading out at 11am. The 10th race in Kyoto tomorrow featuring Gustave etc. might give us a hint so I'll check that result if I'm not too drunk and finalize my picks.
sean, do you wanna have another head to head wager like last year. My Knight against your Belshazarr for 10,000
Knight will win that battle. :)
Robert, I was high on sadamu too. Then my synergy kicked in and i got off him. The rail didn't do him any favors in the satsuki and now he's even closer. But then again that's the place to be in the Derby based on historical gate percentages.
Ha ha. No, I'm afraid I can't accept that wager. Tosen Reve against Nakayama Knight I would consider though.
oh, thats tough but since i rated Knight 2nd I'll have to say yes on that too.
Yeah, that is one of the main reasons I threw Win in my top 5.
Even though 13 has Take in his back, I just can't buy him because of his not so hot performances at Tokyo...
Can I take Reve for ichiman too! :)
Robert, sure! 10,000 for the highest finish between the two based on the JRA official results.
You are on! :)
If u had to pick between Universal and Cresco who would you take?
Ok, I'm in too. But like last time I wanna clarify that if either horse gets scratched the bet is off.
Sean, yep. Uni vs cresco. I think both horses might be fading badly down the stretch. Cresco I guess just because he most likely be in a better position not to fade as badly as a stalker like cresent could be
***likely be in a better position not to fade as badly as a stalker like Universal could be
Robert, I think Universal and Cresco is a really tough call. In terms of potential, you'd have to go with Cresco but his jockey doesn't know how to race at Tokyo and Universal is steady if unspectacular. Hmmm, I really don't want to bet this but if I were to I guess I'd go with Universal.
So I take it that both of you don't like either of them than eh?! :)
I guess I should just stop overthinking this and stick to my original picks.
Yeah, I don't think I'll put them on my ticket but definitely gave Cresco some thought...
I'm definitely putting a thousand on Knight-Reve to avoid heartbreak. (The odds are pretty sweet too.) And Keith your initial challenge made me realize how lightly I regard Belshazzar. He's out.
I think with Belsha its the Goto factor. Last year on Rose Kingdom still burns and even last week in the Oaks.
Robert, you were mentioning coming to Tokyo for a racing day. Any idea when that might be? For me to take part, I'll need a few weeks notice...
That'd be great if it ended up 16-10. I think we should each through a ¥1000 on each-way exactas.
I really wanted to come down May/June but I'm working 6 days a week right now so it's tough... I could definitely come down almost anytime in August/September, but there are no bigger races going on then. Nonetheless, I'm sure it'd be a fun day!
I will be in Tokyo for a conference November 23-26. If I'm not presenting on the 26th we could hit the Tennosho together.
*Each throw...
I gotta stop typing posts on my iPhone... :)
Hey, Gang. Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in! I'm wondering if 11-Debs is overrated due to that one "spectacular" 4th place finish. If it pours & with the extra 400m can he really bring the goods again?
I'm looking Orf, Reve and SadaPa as the top three with Cresco, Cotillion, Debs & Parfait waiting to crash the party. Now having said that, the Bank will sink me for sure.
Debonair will have a superstar jockey in the saddle so that just might him in the winner's circle this time around.
might put him!! lol
A friend emailed me and he said Orfevre means " Gold" in English? If the horse is named after my blog I'll have to double down on him some more :)
*** in French*** its getting late!!
Craig, I think you're right - Dettori/Debs will definitely be overvalued. Will still buy him though with Reve.
Robert, OK, let us know about November 26th or whenever. It'll be a good time. If we win. LOL
The 26th should be Japan Cup weekend not the tenno-sho.
Keith, it doesn't literally translate to 'gold' but close enough I guess. I really don't think he or Sadamu are sure things but Orfevre definitely has the better chance IMO.
Picks could change but here's what I got as of now: 16 with 2, 5, 9, 10, 11 and 15, 1000 each way exactas
5 and 16 in trios with 1, 2, 7, 9, 10, 11, 13 and 15, 1500 yen each
Total wager - 24000
Probably can't post again till I get back from Kyushu. Good luck guys.
Here's a little CCR for ya!
♪( ´▽｀) " IIII wanna knoooow, have you ever seen 'a-3-year-old-colt-run-a-sub-2:28-in' the rain, coming down like a tyyyyphoon. Yeaaaaah!"
Thank you, thank you very much.
John Hagerty doing his best Elvis impression. I love it. The track will be a waiste land.
Same picks of course but going a little more front heavy with 5,10,11> and the rest. I would especially love if any of these 3 win or 2nd. 5...10...11..
Looking at the post I think if 5 or 16 hit we all have a chance at a winning day. Good luck everyone
and #2 as well
Well, looks like I owe you ichiman Keith. I was hoping 1 could catch 5, but I guess I can't complain too much...
Robert, ur the only one that had 1 with the 5 i think. Congrats. I got nil!! I threw in 1 in some extra trifectas but Goto burned me again. Im not going to second guess anything especially on todays surface but basically I wanted all satsuki-sho horses but got burned on Variation. He had the rail but nevertheless. I feel much better at this years loss than last year for my own condolence prize. Bring on the Japan Cup is all that I can say :)
Hey guys,
I'm back from Kyushu, exhausted and poorer. Congrats to Robert and Keith too I guess.
Crushed again. Sadamu didn't perform & didn't have Win in my plans except for one, which needed Sadamu to win. Brutal.
Bummertown. Early on I thought win might have a chance but I didn't see the pedigree. And Goto-san!!
Next time I suppose...
Hey! Quick question... I was just looking at the nominated horses for the Yasuda Kinen and I saw that Real Impact was on the list. I was a little surprised since he is still a 3 year old. Is this a common occurence? If he runs he will only be carrying 54 kgs compared to the older boys' 58 and Apapane's 56. He ran a pretty good 1.32.5 in the NHK Mile at Tokyo carrying 57. Any chance he could surprise and finish in the money in this race?
Well, despite some respectable results, he's only managed to win one race - his first one. He might have a future but I think he's in a little over his head here. But I'll take Silport if you wanna back Real Impact in a personal 10,000 yen wager. It's practically a gift.
Ha! It just hit me that if I had accepted Keith's original challenge (Nakayama vs. Belshazzar), I would've won. And I thought I was being so shrewd in opting for Tosen Reve instead.
If it was GPB representing the 3year olds instead of Real Impact I'd take you up on that bet. :) Silport has been on fire recently. Are you jumping on his band wagon?
Nope, it's too late for that now - too much bad blood between me and Silport. (And why is he named after a golf course in Shanghai? His name and his recent successes make no sense to me.)I will continue to bet against him. JoCap is gonna pressure him early and he'll collapse on the long homestretch.
I totally agree with you about Jo. If anyone runs away with it'll be him.
I imagine that Beauty Flash will also be pushing the pace. There is a lot of early speed in this race so I think that it will favor the closers unless Jo can run away with it of course...
Keith, I'm gonna put that cash into your account tomorrow. I've been pretty busy this week so I haven't had any time to go the bank yet, but I'll get it to you tomorrow.
robert, If u dont mind I could just have some fun with the 10,000 on the Yasuda this sunday.
Have a strong feeling Jo takes this thing! :)
What would the odds even be on Jo? He'll definitely be in a couple trio bets just in case.
(and Silport too because I don't want to lose again because of that damn horse)
Here's some information I feel I should share: Fukunaga said he held Jo back in the Keio Hai which essentially allowed Silport to go at his own pace. This time he intends to let Jo loose (at least that's what he's saying). BB Gulden - a sprinter who really has no business being entered here - should also attack the lead. I can only conclude that the pace will be uncomfortably hot for Silport and since the Tokyo mile is the hardest course in Japan for a horse to hold on from start to finish I'm feeling very confident that he won't win.
But like Beer-san I may add him to a few trios lest my scenario doesn't materialize. Don't wanna get hoofed in the balls again...
Jack & Jo?! Sounds pretty good doesn't it!
Jack & Jo definitely has a nice ring to it but in my scenario Jo is gonna sacrifice himself for the good of my wallet. If Jo battles Silport for the lead - and I'm counting on him doing that - it'll probably be a double suicide...
Anyone have any thoughts on the Hong Kong invaders? I'm not that keen on either of them but based on the footage I've seen I think Thumbs Up is more suited to the Tokyo track. I don't think he'll garner much attention so there'll be really good value there. You never know with the foreign horses though.
A couple quotes from Thumbs Up's trainer, "As long as he gets a good pace in the race he can finish fast, so the long stretch at Tokyo Racecourse was an important factor in the decision to run him here. Tomorrow he'll just canter and we'll gallop him on Wednesday."This season has been a bit frustrating by means that he's pretty one-dimensional in the sense that he needs speed in his races, which he has not been getting in Hong Kong. He's always reeled off either the fastest or the second fastest in the last quarter in his races—he's got a very good finishing time. But all he needs is pace and hopefully he'll get that here in the Yasuda Kinen. He's a good closer. I'm not worried about the left-handed course, and as long as it's not a real heavy track, he'll handle the wet surface—no problem. He's got big feet and he has handled it in the past."
I think he is gonna get the speed!!
here is the history of Thumbs up & Beauty( type in his name)..I cant seem to get the race video working on some of the race links.
http://www.hkjc.com/english/racing/horse.asp?horseno=K005
so dump Silport, & box Jack, Jo, Thumbs Up with Apapane keyed?
What's everyone think about Dannon Yoyo?
I think Deep Impact has a chance. He is carrying 4 kgs less...
Real Impact! lol
Danon Yoyo could definitely factor, too. Got to see the odds before I make my final picks. As of now, I'm liking Jack, Jo, Thumbs up, impact and Yoyo... Apapane???
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