All week people have been asking me if there will be a Triple Crown Winner this year and my cop-out answer has been 50-50. Whats there not to like about Orfevre? Its difficult, he has done everything that has been asked of him. Its a cerebral decision on on my part more than anything. I didn't get on his bandwagon until after the Satsuki-Sho, which I don't like to do. I like to spot my horses early and play them often. Bottom line..I very underestimated Orfevre talent level. However a lot of things have gone very right this year to set up this opportunity for history. Back to back classic races at the SAME track( Tokyo) and VERY bad weather on both racing days and not to mention an interruption in training brought about by the March 11th earthquake. I get the feeling Orfevre is winning BECAUSE of these unusual events rather than IN SPITE of them. Looking at the field of 17 horses you would have to imagine there is at least one 3yr-old that hasn't shown his peak form yet and can deny destiny? and yet its also easy to see that this field is somewhat marginal and Orf will romp. Take it worth a grain of salt but Win Variation has been coming close under less than desirable conditions for him!! Tomorrow no rain in the forecast, a potential more beneficial pace and 100,000 fans walk away disappointed. ...........******L'lle d ' Aval....Came in 3rd last race with high weight. I really like the jockey change here as Aval seemed somewhat lazy on that October 1st race. A graded race level horse getting a very soft spot. My race of the weekend!!
The Wager: Kyoto 11th race... 13-14-1,5,8,17,18 Straight Trifecta ￥1000 ( 5 Tickets)
13 with 1,5,8,17,18 One Way Exacta￥1000 (5 Tickets)
Tokyo 10th Race...#3 with 1,4,5,9,10,11 ￥2000 Each-Way Exacta
#3 with 1,4,5,9,10,11 ￥1000 Random Trios
12 comments:
I really like your selections Keith. It would have been awesome if you and Sean could have made it to Kyoto this weekend! I have gotten the green light from my wife to go to Tokyo for the Japan Cup on November 27 so let's do it up then! :)
I am also looking at going to go after the big money tomorrow and bet against Orfevre. I am not exactly sure how I am going to bet it, but I like either 5,17,14 or 13 (boxed exacta??) to spoil the triple crown bid. I think I will also bet 14 coming in 2nd (and maybe 3rd??)in some trifecta tickets along with the four horses I mentioned above. I might also include 2 and 9 to come in 3rd...
By and chance, do you like any other races on the card? I am going to be there for pretty much the whole day so if you see anything interesting, I'd really appreciate it if you gave me a little heads up. :)
*By any chance... :)
I think the last time I won this race was when Narita Brian bagged the triple crown. That must have been my second year in Japan. I always find this race tough...
However, I've got an angle on it. The consensus seems to be that if any horse is gonna stop Orfevre it'll be Win Variation. But actually of the two I think he's more likely fail (although Ikezoe looks like a nervous wreck in interviews). I don't think Ando will mark Orfevre - it didn't work last time. I think he'll fall back, ride the rail and probably be near the very end when they hit the home stretch. He'll try for an explosive finish but it could easily backfire. Having said that though I'm not too high on any of the other horses. So I'm thinking of keying Win Variation for third with Orfevre on top. Sandwiched between them I like 1, 5, 8, 11, 16 and 17. 3000 each. I'll also do the same with random trios in case Win Variation does manage to win or finish 2nd.
Keith, I'll definitely shadow you on the Tokyo 10th. Not sure if the odds will be any good though.
Robert,
So I see your fiance has become your 'wife'. Belated congratulations.
Robert, cool Japan Cup. Looking forward to meeting up then. I didn't see anything else in Kyoto to bet on and im still iffy about the Kikka sho actually. A 10,000 ￥ budget on it is enough for me. Sean, yep I can easily see Win getting way back especially if the pace is running faster than the previous race they had together. The tokyo 10th has only 11 entrants and 3 of the contenders besides Aval are getting less than steller odds too. Need to win the trio in this one .
Ha! It was just like I called it but Win Variation still took 2nd comfortably. I cut 16 from my ticket so it was almost a perfect breakeven.
Sean, that breakdown was perfect...i thought Win would get caught in traffic but he found an opening but it didnt matter. Aval was a disappointment considering just a 3rd place showing i could have at least gotten my wager amount back:(
If it wasn't obvious before it certainly should be now - Orfevre and Win are in a different class. That's 3 straight races in which they've finished 1-2.
I wonder if Orfevre will go to the Japan Cup or Arima.
I didn't bet on the 10th race in Tokyo. I got my tickets for the G1 in the morning and decided to cap my stake at 30,000. At least next time Aval probably won't be such a heavy favorite even in a lower-class race.
“I am both delighted and relieved to have won after all the pressure that we’ve been through,” commented Yasutoshi Ikee during the post race interview. “I will have to see how he recovers from this race but if all goes well, challenges in the Japan Cup (Jpn-I) or the Arima Kinen (Jpn-I) is definitely an option.”
Read more: http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/65726/orfevre-completes-japanese-triple-crown#ixzz1bk4cfDmw
The Tennosho should be a great race. I'll be in Fukuoka and won't be able to post but I really like Dark Shadow. Buena, Rose, and Eishin will also probably be on my ticket. Pelusa? Maybe. Earnestly? Doubtful.
Good luck to all.
Hey sean, all these layoffs are tough to gauge but Im with you with Buena. Thinking ahead if vista wins then the Japan Cup pool will be loaded with her money which ill gladly bet elsewhere as its shaping up to be a very vulnerable spot.
Hey guys,
Tomorrow's race should be a goodie! I'm really looking forward to it. Hopefully Meisho or Glory can slip in there to take 3rd behind a combination of Buena, Rose Flash and Pelsa for a nice trifecta payout. :)
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