Going back and analyzing my selections of this years crop and prep races, I found that I didn't really get an "early feel" for any of the contenders come this Sunday.
Of the 18 Derby entrants, only 6 were selected as my top pick in any of their given races. They were: Alfredo, Spielberg, Historical, Deep Brillante, Just a Way, and Trip.
Alfredo: Had a big win with him back in December in the Futurity. I never imagined him as a Derby horse mainly because the winners of this race seem to peak too early.
Trip: This was my Derby selection from the get-go. Already there is a certain sense of satisfaction in that he actually found himself in the big race, unlike last years choice Target Machine, who never panned out. The Yayoi was a good race for him but not so much for me, as I failed to collect ,thanks in large part of my over estimate of Adams Peak and Fenomeno.( but I'm back on Fenomeno's bandwagon) :)
Deep Brillante: My top pick in two races. I like his determination. Putting him in trifecta formations with the contenders is going against conventional handicapping wisdom however. A fast pace usually spells the doom for such stalkers and aids the stretch runners, while a slow pace could be ideal for Deep and create huge hurdles for the late comers. Interesting enough, I don't see the outcome being much different either way. Brillante seems capable of holding a fast pace and the stretch runners, Gold & Co have the explosiveness to withstand even a snails pace.
Spielberg Bet the horse when he made that huge class drop to the 8th race. The track did him in that day but very consistent.
Historical: Owner Kondo was going through an dry spell .but I thought this horse could get him out of the rut. He did and I think there is a tremendous potential upswing for this horse.
Just A Way. Looks like a miler but his long stride and his penchant of taking time to get revved up seems to me to be ideal for this distance. This is my highest priced horse I will be using in my formations. 45-1 but worth a shot.
Now that every things been said and shredded I believe the talent of this race lies in the upper echelon of the odds board. Even though Ikee has had a few disappointments with older horses this year, his touch with the 3yr olds is indisputable, The firm surface being only programmatic with the forecast will be a huge boon to World Ace. Traffic always being a concern notwithstanding , I'm wagering on a runaway winner on the 27th.
THE WAGER
8-2, 8-6, 8-11, ￥10,000 Exactas ￥2000 Exactas 8-1, 8-4, 8-10, 8-12, 8-18
2-8, 6-8, 8-11 ￥20,000 Quinellas
￥1000 Straight Trifecta Formation
8
2,6,11
1,2,4,6,10,11
5 comments:
Hey Keith,
It has been a long while, eh? I haven't been betting the ponies much at all this year, but I came up with 8-2,6,11,14 before checking your site. I hope that this is a good sign! We usually did well when we had the same picks last year.
Good luck today!
Instead of betting 8-2 at 13-1 odds, why don't you just take the gates 4-1 at 10-1? That way you get Spielberg and Cosmo too...
Hey Robert, hows it going? Well unfortunately I have been betting the ponies all year but havnt won anything big to put me over. I had trip in the yayoi awhile back and he came in 2nd but didnt have the winner. I wasnt going to let that happen here, so I bought my core tickets but wheeled World with every horse just in case..to no avail. With the fast turf I thought he would pull away earlier than he did. He didnt run into any traffic also so it was just a disappointing effort. The exacta paid handsomely too. Are u coming to tokyo over the Summer?. Let me know...
Yeah, I was expecting a lot more out of him too. I have learned one thing for sure. Include every horse that C. Williams rides. When I was in Melbourne in Feburuary/March he won 5 races on one of the days and a few on the other. He might just be the best jockey I have ever seen...
June 23 might be a good day to get free money. Black Caviar is running in the diamond jubilee stakes and from what I've been reading all of the horses that could possibly give her a run for her money are chickening out and running in the King's plate instead. It is 1.5 to 1 odds right now at willhill.com but none of the other horses as of now have a chance. The only way she loses is if the 30 hour trip zaps so she only has 10 percent of her power. lol
I have been so busy this semester that I haven't thought about anything besides work to tell you the truth. Now that you mention it though, I definitely have to come up there a lot sooner than later. The end of July is definitely a good possibility. Anything going on then?
*zaps her
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