SPRINTERS STAKES

The first G1 race of the autumn campaign has the most versatile horse in the most disadvantageous gate of the racing day. However, having the bulk of the contenders includng the favorite all breaking from the outside somewhat mutes the handicap . The WAGER# 16 with 11,13,14,15 ¥3000 EACH WAY TRIFECTA

Yasuda Kinen

#4 Strong Return.  Evident from his last race, Strong seems to be fit and ready to make an even STRONGER return here.

4 with 7,14,17  ￥4000 Each Way Exacta

￥1000 Straight Trifecta
4
7,14,17
7,10,14,17,18

AN ACE IN THE HOLE COME DERBY DAY

Betting 3 yr olds is an always a changing,synergy process. Much like the popular " Reality Shows" of the day, American Idol, You Got Talent,etc we find our favorites,eliminate the sub par, in essence, becoming the ultimate judge where our eventual prognosis accumulates in the Derby.

Going back and analyzing my selections of this years crop and prep races, I found that I didn't really get an "early feel" for any of the contenders come this Sunday.

Of the 18 Derby entrants, only 6 were selected as my top pick in any of their given races. They were: Alfredo, Spielberg, Historical, Deep Brillante, Just a Way, and Trip.

Alfredo: Had a big win with him back in December in the Futurity. I never imagined him as a Derby horse mainly because the winners of this race seem to peak too early.

Trip: This was my Derby selection from the get-go. Already there is a certain sense of satisfaction in  that he actually found himself in the big race, unlike last years choice Target Machine, who never panned out. The Yayoi was a good race for him but not so much for me, as I failed to collect ,thanks in large part of my over estimate of Adams Peak and Fenomeno.( but I'm back on Fenomeno's bandwagon) :)

Deep Brillante: My top pick in two races. I like his determination. Putting him in trifecta formations with the contenders is going against conventional handicapping wisdom however. A fast pace usually spells the doom for such stalkers and aids the stretch runners, while a slow pace could be ideal for Deep and create huge hurdles for the late comers. Interesting enough, I don't see the outcome being much different either way. Brillante seems capable of holding a fast pace and the stretch runners, Gold & Co have the explosiveness to withstand even a snails pace.

Spielberg Bet the horse when he made that huge class drop to the 8th race. The track did him in that day but very consistent.

Historical: Owner Kondo was going through an dry spell .but I thought this horse could get him out of the rut. He did and I think there is a tremendous potential upswing for this horse.

Just A Way. Looks like a miler but his long stride and his penchant of taking time to get revved up seems to me to be ideal for this distance. This is my highest priced horse I will be using in my formations. 45-1 but worth a shot.

Now that every things been said and shredded I believe the talent of this race lies in the upper echelon of the odds board.  Even though Ikee has had a few disappointments with older horses this year, his touch with the 3yr olds is indisputable, The firm surface being only programmatic with the forecast will be a huge boon to World Ace. Traffic always being a concern notwithstanding , I'm wagering on a runaway winner on the 27th.

THE WAGER

8-2,  8-6,  8-11,   ￥10,000 Exactas    ￥2000 Exactas  8-1, 8-4, 8-10, 8-12, 8-18
2-8,  6-8, 8-11     ￥20,000 Quinellas

￥1000 Straight Trifecta Formation
8
2,6,11
1,2,4,6,10,11

Japanese Oaks

#1 I'm Yours....The previous 1600 m G1 prep the Oka Sho is a tough race to gauge the worth of this 2400 m affair. However looking at the top finishers, all of them came off the pace well and after a month of training and a fast track the contenders look like they all could fire here again. The bloodlines of I'm Yours looks more convincing at this distance than the congestion of Deep Impacts sires, at this particular time anyways.

The Wager
1 with 8,9,10,14  ￥2000 Each Way Exactas

1
8,9,10,14
8,9,10,14

￥500 Straight Trifectas

Victoria Mile

#4 Meine Isabe

The Wager: 4-7, 4-12, 4-14      ￥5000 Quinellas

NHK MILE

#7 Hana's Goal.....We should finally get a firm course on the turf tomorrow. Tough race here, but her last two previous races showed a potential tremendous upside.

7 with 5,11,14,17  ￥1000 Each Way Exacta

Principal Stakes

#17 Courir Kaiser, getting the outside draw seems a daunting task but I like that there is a 2400 race in the 10th to help sod out the track a bit. Jockey Yoshida has been doing well with this horses connection thus far in this early Spring meet.

17 with 4,8,9,12,15  ￥1000 Each Way Exacta

Tenno Sho

18
5,14,16
5,14,16

￥1000 Straight Trifectas

Aoba Sho

Tokyo 11th Race...I always thought #5 Gallant would fair better on a fast track but probably wont get one tomorrow. Nevertheless will include him and three others in a 4-horse Quinella box.

5-7   ￥4000   7-13  ￥2000
5-13 ￥4000   7-16  ￥2000
5-16 ￥4000  13-16 ￥2000

April 22

Tokyo 11 Race ...# 7 Midsummer Fair

' with 8,10,12,13,14,  ￥1000 Each Way Exacta

April 15th

Nakayama 11 Race Satsuki-Sho.......#6 Deep Brillante

The turf should be running very similar to the Yayoi Sho, where Brillante ran a to a second place showing. The Satsuki is certainly loaded with more class horses than the Yayoi but Deep has been very consistent in holding his position down the stretch. The conditions make it difficult for handicapping for sure but will opt for the horse that proved he could weather the storm.

6-18 ￥10,000 Quinella 2-6,3-6, 6-14, 6-15, ￥1000 Quinella Savers





Nakayama 8th Race #7 Crawford

7 with 3,5,8,12,14 ￥1000 Each Way Exacta

April 8th

Hanshin 11 Race

#Joie de Vivre.... I think she is a formidable horse but not just the same talent as her sister at this stage. Going to key her for 2nd!!

5-17
10-17
11-17

￥5000 Straight Trifecta

￥5,000 WIDE 11-17 , 10-17

April 7th

War Crown provided me with my first win of the year so here's hoping for more success on going back to the well.

Nakayama 10th Race

3,4,6,8,11,12 Tri Box ￥1000

#4 with 3,6,8,11,12 ￥1000 Each Way Exacta

Spring House Cleaning

Tallying up the win/loss , profit/loss for the Spring. After three months we are showing a profit thanks in part to the good return in the February Stakes. Trainer Kazuya Nakatake 's good run early in January ,Katsuhiru Tanaka's Birthday card on Feb 25th, and Carnavolet's return on the straight Trifecta( March 10th ) round out the bigger wins thus far this campaign. Missed out on Trip in the Yayoi sho as a major wager, but the key horse did manage a 2nd place finish, but unfortunately to no profitable avail.
*********************************************************************************

February Stakes W ￥2000 Trio * odds 155.3 Exacta W ￥1000 16-3 *odds 262.1
March 10th Hanshin 6th Race W Trifecta ￥1000 *odds 214.7


Overall

W 16 L 34 {Avg Race Wager ￥25,500}

Amount Wagered: ￥1,375,000
Amount Returned ￥1,560,000

Net Return ￥+ 175,000

April 1st

Nakayama 11 Race #7 Belshazzar.... held on to his fractions last time out. Could greatly benefit by the turfs conditions tomorrow.

The Wager: 7 with 5,8,12,15 ￥1000 Each Way Exacta

March 31st

Nakayama 12 Race..#3 Honokaa Boy A rare 2400m on dirt

3 with 2,5,8,11 ￥1000 Each Way Exacta

March 25th

Tosen Ares moves up to a graded race after finally winning at the 1600 level. All but one of his five wins came here at Nakayama. If he can hit the start( unlike the last time Shibata rode him) this 12-1 horse could figure here.

Nakayama
11 Race

6,10,11,12,13,15 ￥1000 Trios

10 with 6,11,12,13,15 Each Way Exacta

Straight Trifectas ￥500

10
6,11,12,13,15
13,15

6,11,12,13,15
10
13,15

March 24th

Owner Richie Kondo hasn't had much success in the main races thus far this year. Let's see if Historical can turn that around.

Kyoto 11 Race

3,4,6,8,9,11 ￥1000 Trios

#6 with 3,4,8,9,11 ￥1000 Each Way Exacta

March 18th

Hanshin 7th Race...#12 American Diner Beaten favorite last time out at 2.5 , now getting close to 8.0. I'll give him another shot here at 1800m

3,4,6,10,12,13 ￥1000 Trio Box

12 with 3,4,6,10,13 Each-Way Exacta ￥1000


Nakayama 11 Race #9 Deep Brillante The surface for tomorrow really looks to favor this horse. Could win by a country mile if allowed to run at " My Pace" and sit off the leader(s).

9-11, 9-14 ￥10,000 Quinellas

March 17th

Coincidence or not but we might have the luck of the Irish in the 3rd race.

Nakayama 3rd race #7 Patrick's Day

2,6,7,9,10,13 Trios for ￥1000 ( 20 tickets)
7 with 2,6,9,10, 13 Each Way Exacta ￥1000


Chukyo 6th race..Omega Blue Hawaii

1,2,3,5,6,8 ￥1000 Trios( 20 tickets)
2 with 1,3,5,6,8 Each Way Exacta ￥1000