If you handicap a race for too long you can start to imagine things that really aren't there. Forcing that square peg into a triangle shape. Thus it was with the Takarazuka Kinen. I didn't really see anything past the two heavyweights in the race( Vista & Journey) as boring and potentially unprofitable as it was. They both have been competitive against each other in the previous three meetings( 1-2)( 1-3)(1-3) and against arguably better competition. But then I took one final look at Earnestｌｙ. The time of 1.59.5 in the Kinko-Sho wasn't all that impressive and his 34.0 stretch time was just the third fastest in the race. ALL THE MORE reason I should have liked him from the beginning. Horses that come off layoffs with a win and a personal best just don't win the second time out. This is not Earnestly' s profile at all..We could be seeing a late emerging form cycle that has already netted back to back Graded races..a feat that even Buenna cant boast about.
The Wager: 2-8 ￥10,000 each way exacta
2-18 ￥2500 each way exacta
2-10 ￥2500 each way exacta
2-6, 2-9, ￥1000 each way exacta
2-8 with 6,9,10,18 random trifecta￥1000 ( 4 tickets)
20 comments:
I know Sean will probably disagree but I'm leaning towards...
10 with 2,18,9,6,8 in a random trifecta. I think that buena will disappoint against the boys. She might place so I'm not discounting her, but the more I look into it this, the more I feel confident in Jaguar Mail.
Hey Robert, jag is running well..The course is the biggest x factor for me ...if u take 2,18,9,6,8 combined records at Hanshin its quite impressive 12 wins 1 second 3 thirds..out of the money 3 times( 2 of them by Journey)...since he still unproven here I decided to be better safe than sorry and thus included him though
Those numbers are pretty damn impressive!
I really am trying to get the most bang for my buck, but I am unsure how to bet this. Out of the six horses I have listed above, I feel pretty confident that no one will ruin the trifecta party (except for maybe Unforgettable. :) ). Any suggestions on how I should bet this?
Robert,
If you want to get the most bang for your buck, you might want to consider trimming your picks from 6 (a third of the field) to 3 or 4. I'd start with Jaguar Mail if I were you. He he he...Just kidding.
If you like Jaguar, I'd go with him and maybe one more horse. Work the quinella and exacta with those two horses and then branch out to the triples - and you'd want your two key horses in all formations with the exception of a few insurance tickets. That's what I'd do anyways...
By the way, that potential party crasher's name is 'Forgettable' rather than 'Unforgettable' but you erred on the side of common sense. What a stupid freakin' name for a thoroughbred! That horse though might factor. I'm starting to like him over Seiun Wonder.
Cheers Sean! That was some pretty valuable advice, but who to key and who to cut??? I guess I like the 10 and 2 horses best. Tough call...
"Forgettable" is my second favorite name for a horse after "Success Brocken," which for the longest time I thought was "Success Broken." Damn Katakana!
Keith, this guy and you came up with pretty similar picks. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nYd2Isx9_nM This video is pretty strange for a variety of reasons though. :)
robert, could you paste that link again. It wasn't click able. There is a name reference guide on the JRA Japanese site, where u can see the origin of the names of the horses..its wrong half the time though...there is a 3yr old named Liberty Valence ans the site said " famous landmark in Europe?? actually it was one of John Wayne s most memorable characters..
Copied the link and watched it..gotta tell u, that really doesn't give me the greatest confidence in the world that I'm thinking like Anthony there..lol....kinda eerily entertaining though..i would like to know his reasoning for leaving out Vista however..
Cheers on the info!
Yeah, that video is pretty weird, but kinda amusing. I wonder if he knows his stuff...
I was wondering the exact same thing about Buena. Actually, some of the Japanese (so-called) experts are leaving her out or picking her to just show... Maybe because of the weather and/or her come from behind style??
I loved the 'dream' sequence with the naked old ladies dancing around the campfire...A Buena-Dream exacta is returning 17-1 at this point. I'm tempted to lay down 50,000 on that and forget about the rest. The course condition will definitely be a concern though. I can see Logi attracting a lot of attention the wetter it gets. I don't see the weather helping Earnestly. With fast conditions there'd be a chance that he could steal the race but I see him coming under a lot of pressure now. Buena-Logi-Forgettable trio at 65-1 will definitely be among my picks.
I live about 20 kms from the track and it has been coming down hard since last night. Still don't like Jaguar Mail?! :)
Nope, I'm gonna stubbornly maintain that he won't come. I'll narrow it down to 3 or 4 horses by Sunday. If I were buying 5 or 6 horses he'd definitely be included but I don't want to hedge too much. I want that big score high - not interested in breaking even. But Jaguar seems to handle the soft going fairly well so the rain shouldn't be too much of a concern for you.
Just a little weather update... The rain has stopped and it is sunny, hot and humid right now. Doesn't look like it'll rain again today so the track should be pretty firm by race time.
Sean, have you narrowed it done to 4 horses yet? :)
In the 8th race at Hanshin, I like the 11 horse with 1,9,10,6.
In the 9th race, I like #4 with 1,6.
In the 12th I like #7 with 14,4.
Best of luck today guys!!
Thanks for the weather update...I couldn't narrow it down to 4 horses, going with 5 instead and yes I broke down and added Jaguar. He better not disappoint! LOL. I still don't really believe in him but his current form is just too good to ignore.
Buena is my key horse along with 1,2, 10 and 18.
Best of luck!
As I feared Jaguar couldn't handle that course (at least on this day). But I'd rather have been wrong and won a shitload of money. I did actually win on the gates but still ended up -20,000 for the race. So the champagne corks aren't exactly popping at my place. Anyone get any last minute inspiration and bet on Nakayama Festa?
Keith, I'm going to Hakodate next weekend and will spend Sunday at the track. Would appreciate a hot tip! Cheers.
Hey guys, Well i had 2-8 in six random trifectas for 4000 each BUT didn't include fiesta..i put Forgettable instead of him because i thought Ebina getting off fiesta was a " sell sign"",,guess not!! oh well, im kinda glad the g1 are over with..didn't have much success with them...but i do like the autumn g1s better..Robert, how do u bet. Do u have a PAT Account..the reason im asking is i like the early races there so i dont want to tip something that u have to get up at 5am to go bet on..if u have an account then no worries!
sorry robert! I meant Sean..
Robert, a couple of ur favorites came in at hanshin..did u get the trio ?
Keith,
I don't have a PAT account - I usually go to WINS in the morning to pick up my tickets for the main race. BUT next week I'm traveling to Hakodate and will actually be at the track all day. We'll be there in time for the first race to make sure we get a good seat. So if you have a hot favorite for one of the early races do let me know. No worries if you don't. There's a nice open sprint at Hakodate on Sunday which I'll study up on - the rest of the time I'll just be enjoying the sights, smells and beer. Wouldn't mind winning a few of course...
Got crushed in the G1 (4 out of the top 5 horses doesn't win u anything! :( ), but I had a great day at Hanshin. Went with about ten friends and my buddy and I played the lucky last so it all worked out. Absolutely no rhyme or reason behind it, but whenever we go to the track together we throw 5000 on the 5 to win in the last race. I don't go to the track that often, but it has been hitting over 50 percent. :) A win is a win, right?!
Sean, I need to start listening to you. Jaguar Mail was really disappointing. Logi and him had great position going into the stretch, but they both just died. I haven't seen the replay, but it did look like Jaguar got bumped once or twice though...
Good luck in Hokkaido! Keith, I know you will pick him some winners!
PS Go Argentina!
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