My take on Japanese racing and particular this blog is on the gambling side. Having said that, lets put Danon Chantily(#13) record race in yesterdays NHK Mile Cup in a little more perspective. He did what all Fuji kiseki sires do, and that is to run well between 1200\1600 meters on turf. The time of 1.31.4 is impressive, but somewhat less so if you realize that just last week, Tiger Fang won an Allowance race at the same distance in 1.33.6. The track is running fast, particular in the late afternoon post times. The Mile Cup is now considered a prep for the Derby because of the recent success of Deep Sky. In reality its not. The past 5 years of the top 3 finishers in the Cup, the horses are 0 for 14 in the Derby. Another potential pitfall for potential Danon backers, is that horses BOUNCE when coming of record times. Do I consider Danon a serious contender for the Derby?..uhm..No!......Sumi trained Rulership(#5) was on form taking the Principal Stakes on Saturday. My speed figures on him are still marginal, but he has 3 weeks to sharpen up. He has the connections to do it needlessly to say. I still like Reve d ' Orient, who only managed a 3rd place showing in the Kyoto Shinbun Hai. I haven't determined the pace-line for the Derby yet, but given some luck this horse could be a trifecta buster!**************************************** I've got quite a few emails saying how my selections have been less than stellar lately...true the big races that everyone likes to bet( except me) have been disappointing,but where was the mail when I hit last weeks Airwolf ticket for ￥112,000 return on a ￥1000 wager.
5 comments:
I thought Rulership looked impressive on Saturday. I'm not sure if he can beat Victoire Pisa or Pelusa or even Hiruno d'Amour but I'll bet ya 10,000 yen he beats Reve d'Orient! Agree with you about Danon though.
P.S. What do you mean when you say your speed figures on Rulership are still marginal?
Sean, how has racing been treating you recently? My speed ratings are pattern after Andrew Beyers method. Granted they are less reliable on turf than dirt but each race is given a "projected rating" that is based on past results of that particular level/age/sex/track...the higher the number the faster the perceived race..On March 21st Leadership ran in a projected race at 105..he came in 5th and registered a 96..The Principle Stakes had a projected number at 97..he won but he registered a 96 again. Saint Emilian who won with a slower time at 2.00.2 in the Flora Stakes at the same distance/course actually scored higher with a slower time because the variant was weighted higher due to the slow times that persisted all day in each race..Basically what it comes down to or not? is horses that have finished 4th and 5th in other prep races are scoring higher than Leadership with his win. This is not to say he cant improve but as strange as it seems there was no difference between his 5th place showing and his win..Rulership vs Orient in the higher showing for the Derby?..Depending on the conditions I might take your wager..I'll get back to you on that one..Sean, for further explanation look up Picking Winners by Andrew Beyer..its falling out of grace recently with punters but it still holds here, especially low-end dirt class...later
The racing Gods have been reasonably compassionate to me so far. I generally only bet on the G1s and this year I'm 2 for 5. Both wins were very healthy so at the very least I'll come out of this G1 stretch in the black....I did a little research on Beyer's speed figures. Interesting stuff. It's gonna take me some time before I completely understand it but at first glance that system seems more suited to low level races (which I'm not that interested in). And I'm still somewhat skeptical about your rating of Rulership. I mean, he won the Principal Stakes by a ton! Sure, the field was relatively weak and the track was fast, but what margin of victory would he have needed to register say 100? It seems like he would've had to win by about 10 lengths with a closing time of 32.7 to get a high rating and that just doesn't happen. But anyways, let me know about Rulership vs. Orient.
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