Friday, May 29, 2009

May Recap


Races Bet: 10
Races Won: 2 ( May 23rd Tokyo 12th race)(May 9th Nigatta 4th race)
Amount Wagered: 153,000
Amount Returned: 182,000
Net Gain: 29,000
Original Bankroll: 1,000,000
Standing Bankroll: 1,411,500
Yearly Gain: 411,500

May 31st Japanese Derby Selection



First of all let it be known that my past Derby selections have been less than stellar. I don't buy into the hype that goes with this race and I therefore treat it as a novelty bet more than anything else. There are 18 young horses that have never(for the most part) ever gone the 2400 meter distance before and with a few exceptions haven't reached a peak form cycle yet. The numerous pitfalls of handicapping this race are to numerous to mention but with some historical perspective we can come to some proven reasonings. The horse that wins this race comes from a previous G1 race! The horse that wins this race had finished in the top 3 in THAT previous race! With few exceptions the horse that wins this race will have odds of less than 8-1. If this model proves correct only 2 horses can win this race, Unrivaled or Triump March. Jo Capacino and Seiun Wonder will go off higher thus don't qualify. What is also true is that the favorites Don't finish together. A dark horse with an emerging form cycle comes through with very attractive odds. Let's bet on history happening again!

Derby ( Tokyo 10th race)

1-18, 7-18, 9-18, 10-18, 11-18 ( all 3000) uma ren
18-1, 18-7, 18-9,18-10. 18-11 ( all 3000) uma tan
1-16,7-16,9-16,10-16,11-16(all 2000) uma ren
16-1, 16-7, 16-9, 16-10,16-11 ( all 2000) uma tan
Longshot fun Box
1-17,7-17,9-17, 10-17,11-17,16-17,17-18 ( all 500) uma ren

Total Cost Of Ticket Outlay : 53,500

Saturday, May 23, 2009

May 24th Selections


Tokyo

8th Race
2-8 3000
5-8 3000
8-9 3000
8-12 3000

10th Race
1-3 2000
3-6 2000
3-10 2000
3-11 2000
3-12 2000

11th(OAKS)

7-8-3 2000
7-15-3 2000
7-3-8 2000
7-3-15 2000
7-8-15 2000
7-15-8 2000

7-8 5000
7-15 5000

May 23rd Selection

Tokyo 12 Race 2-12 3000
5-12 3000 8-12 3000 12-15 3000 12-16 3000

Saturday, May 16, 2009

Victoria Mile

This is where the life of a handicapper gets tricky. We have an overwhelming favorite ( Vodka) that is, in my humble estimation, going on a downturn cycle but faced with a very weak field of contenders. What to do? We pass on the race! The recent" off tracks "these past few weeks have made for some juggling of numbers so nothing of note for my faithful followers this weekend.

Sunday, May 10, 2009

NHK Mile Selection


Tokyo 11th Race ( 5 horse & uma ren Box for 2000 each( 20,000)
4.6.13.16.17

3rd Race all 3000

3-12
12-3
7-12
12-7

* 4-12 uma-ren 2000
* 8-12 uma-ren 2000

Saturday, May 9, 2009

May 9th Selections


Tokyo

9th race
( all 1000 yen)(uma-ren)
2-3
2-4
2-11

12th Race
( all 2000 yen)(uma ren)

3-8
7-8
8-13
8-15

Nigatta

4th Race

all 2000 yen(uma tan)

7-11
11-7
2-11
11-2
11-12
12-11
11-13
13-11

Saturday, May 2, 2009

Kentucky Derby


I Want Revenge is in fine form and yes he will go off at 3-1 but let's play the chalk in this one.

4-13
12-13
13-15
13-19

Friday, May 1, 2009

Tenno-Sho May 3rd


A good balance, especially the upper elite horses. Let's put ASAKUSA KINGS as double in a profitable 5 horse box!

Kyoto 10th Race

3-11 2000
3-12 2000
3-15 2000
3-17 4000
11-12 2000
11-15 2000
11-17 4000
12-15 2000
12-17 4000
15-17 4000