Sunday, May 30, 2010
The problem about making your selections public is that you can easily go from a hero to " sleaze on a side walk"in a matter of races. Truthfully I know during the big races that the traffic jumps on this blog and I really want to give out some winners, but unfortunately it didn't happen today!. There was something about #8 Rose Kingdom that didn't feel right, and my gambling instincts told me to BUY BUY BUY...but.. so basically I really sucked today! Summer is coming and this blog will start becoming as popular as a Knight Rider re-run, but please do come back in the Autumn. Believe it or not I do sometimes tout a winner! Also I hope I didn't turn people off Rose Kingdom because of the previous post this week..it was basically (now proven) a warning too all that something strange was in the air. This was " stable connections" at its best " shading for a price" and I failed to take advantage of it! Apologies once again!
Posted by Keith Hagstrom at 4:38 PM
My Derby selections ticket should be a " random trifecta"...this is not a straight trifecta where the horses have to finish in exact order.. 1-2-3..... Key means that these horses 7-12, have to be used in all tickets. Sorry about the confusion.
Posted by Keith Hagstrom at 10:32 AM
Saturday, May 29, 2010
Friday, May 28, 2010
The 77th running of the Japanese Derby will have a certain Deja Vu feeling about it, but with a twist..Hiruno d' Amour, always the best man, never the groom, the proverbial second fiddler should one- up Victoria Pisa and Pelusa this time around and give Kon and Fujita their second career Derby victories.
Coming in 2nd in the Satsuki-Sho was a testimate to his legitimacy, as he used his long stride to snatch the fastest stretch time of the race at 35.0. Furthermore his clocking of 33.1 in Kyoto on January 23rd remains the fastest time of any 3yr old on turf this year!
A certain amount of racing luck is required to roll off 5 consecutive wins as Pisa has, but the percentages are bound to catch up to him eventually. Sumi is the master of conditioning , however Iwata might not find things to be so effortless on this very good horse the second time around.
To duplicate the same performance in the Derby as the Aoba-Sho would be a tall order for Pelusa. But the talent here is obvious , and even if he drops a bit there's a good chance he'll be on the board.
My Wager: (Exacta) 12-7 ￥10,000, 7-12￥5000, 12-9￥5000, 9-12￥5000
( Wide Ticket) 7-12 ￥10,000 , 9-12￥10,000
( Random Exacta Key 7 & 12 with 2,3,8,9,14,17 ￥2000 ( total￥12,000)
Random Exacta Key 9 & 12 with 2,3,8,14,17 ￥2000 (total ￥10,000)
TOTAL WAGER ￥67,000
Posted by Keith Hagstrom at 3:20 PM
Wednesday, May 26, 2010
Is there a problem with Rose Kingdom? I added some quotes that trainer Hashiguchi had made previously and some before the Satsuki-Sho. First, he didn't want to enter that race but he changed his mind! Secondly, he was singing the praises of jockey Komaki, but announced two weeks ago that he will put his trust in Hiroki Goto. At last, at the press conference on Friday(just two days before the Satsuki) he said that Rose was the same weight as the Spring States, but in fact he was 6 kilos HEAVIER. The Sunday Racing Co knows their business but this hints as a lot of "Monkey Business". ROSE KINGDOM: At one point after finishing third in the Fuji TV Sho Spring Stakes to Aliseo, trainer Kojiro Hashiguchi said he was taking his prized colt by King Kamehameha out of Rose Bud straight to the Tokyo Yushun, feeling the conditions at Nakayama at this time of the year will be anything but suitable for last year's winner of the Asahihai Futurity Stakes. "I have no confidence with the way the going is at Nakayama right now. He relies on quickness, not so much on stamina or brute power," Hashiguchi said at the time. After a meeting with the Sunday Racing ownership group, however, it was decided that last year's Best 2-Year-Old-Colt was running in the Satsuki Sho after all. And jockey Futoshi Komaki thinks the race conditions could actually suit the horse: "I know the impression people have of the track is that it's in bad shape at this time of the year," Komaki said. "And to win here, you do need agility. But he's pretty clever, and the 2,000 meters won't be a problem because it's so easy for him to settle into a race. If the weather holds up, I really like his chances." Rose Kingdom had won three in a row going into the Fuji TV Sho Spring Stakes, but the first defeat of his career was anything but embarrassing, losing only by a length to Aliseo.. Kojiro Hashiguchi (trainer)
"Apapane won (the Oka Sho) after working on the hill. He doesn't work hard because it's in his blood not to. He should weigh about the same as he did in his last race. He's eating well, so I don't anticipate any problems for the race."
Posted by Keith Hagstrom at 6:43 PM
Tuesday, May 25, 2010
The weekend of the Derby is my third most popular time for this blog, trailing the Alima and Japan Cup respectively. Traffic will jump 70%, due to many casual bettors " checking in". Hence the disclaimer. I certainly understand the appeal of the big races, expanded news coverage, bragging rights for an entire year, historical pageantry, but for me, its just another race. In fact the Derby is way down the totem pole as far as preparation is concerned. I handicap according to my strengths and a track record of long term profitable plays, which is low to mid-level dirt races. Certain turf races with older horses are also occaisionly included in my portfolio, but for the most part, its dominated by dirt plays.
Many people ask me why I give out selections on G1 races on my blog but then charge clients for the same selections. Simple answer: I don't..I would never include a "paid selection" here. I seldom tout G1 races and my customers know this. They would rather win an under-valued 25-1, 3rd race in Fukushima than a tepid 7-1 over-valued Grade 1 race. This is not to say that I under perform in the big races. Personally I still bet them and do quite well , but they are seldom put on the market.
Older horses are much easier to read: They seldom put up back-to back big numbers, running styles are constant, more trainer data is available. ******************************************
How I approach the Derby. My bankroll for the Derby will hover around ￥50,000. I'll try to isolate my top contender for Exacta play and box a few others hoping to catch a return for an insurance wager. If the previous day ( Saturday) or the races leading up to the Derby have shown a profit ,I might increase the sum to play some trifecta tickets.
I love horses from the G1 Satsuki-Sho. Those that competed in this race regardless of the finish, really sharpens their form, and increases the interval to the Derby for quality training time.
I like to catch value on a price. Eishin Flash was 40-1 in the Satsuki, but will probably be half-that in the Derby. That's something that wouldn't appeal to my wagering senses. Pisa might go off at 3.0 ...somewhat better than the Satsuki, no valued lost here...but of course there are many considerations.
Posted by Keith Hagstrom at 12:15 PM
Monday, May 24, 2010
Roll up your sleeves and get an adult beverage handy and take aim. Eighteen very good 3 year-old's will all compete in The Japanese Derby this Sunday in Tokyo. It's easy to make a case for a quarter of the field , and even some of the lesser known commodities have certain selling points. Odds on favorite Victoria Pisa has yet to race on the Fuchu course and hasn't run on turf labeled "fast" since last December. This might not be a problem however as the extended weather forecast is calling for rain. The wagering pool should be spread out quite nicely for some good returns...if you can throw a winner that is!
東京 １０Ｒ ２０１０年５月３０日
|馬 名||性齢||騎 手||斤量||調教師||馬主名 |
|牡３||岩田 康誠||５７||角居 勝彦 |
|牡３||藤田 伸二||５７||昆貢 |
|蛭川 正文 |
|牡３||内田 博幸||５７||藤原 英昭 |
|平井 豊光 |
|牡３||後藤 浩輝||５７||橋口弘次郎 |
母アルゼンチンスター 母父Ｃａｎｄｙ Ｓｔｒｉｐｅｓ
|牡３||横山 典弘||５７||藤沢 和雄 |
|山本 英俊 |
|牡３||戸崎 圭太||５７||池江 泰郎 |
|牡３||四位 洋文||５７||角居 勝彦 |
母シャンソネット 母父Mark of Esteem
|牡３||安藤 勝己||５７||松田 国英 |
|牡３||池添 謙一||５７||長浜 博之 |
|畑佐 博 |
|牡３||Ｃ．ウィリアムズ||５７||堀 宣行 |
|牡３||蛯名 正義||５７||尾形 充弘 |
|渡邊 隆 |
父Ｓｔｅｐｈｅｎ Ｇｏｔ Ｅｖｅｎ
母Ｓｏｕｔｈｅｒｎ Ｈｏｕｓｅ 母父Ｐａｒｉｓ Ｈｏｕｓｅ
|牡３||松岡 正海||５７||宮 徹 |
Ｊｏａｎ Ｈａｄｌｅｙ Ｔｈｏｒｏｕｇｈｂｒｅｄｓ
|牡３||浜中 俊||５７||作田 誠二 |
|牡３||和田 竜二||５７||川村 禎彦 |
|呂 朝子 |
|牡３||江田 照男||５７||鈴木 康弘 |
|島川 隆哉 |
母レーヴドスカー 母父Highest Honor
|牡３||藤岡 佑介||５７||松田 博資 |
|牡３||福永 祐一||５７||池江 泰郎 |
|牡３||吉田 隼人||５７||後藤 由之 |
|牡３||吉田 豊||５７||中村 均 |
|牡３||飯田 祐史||５７||飯田 明弘 |
Posted by Keith Hagstrom at 4:26 PM