Tuesday, May 25, 2010

Don't Over Do It

The weekend of the Derby is my third most popular time for this blog, trailing the Alima and Japan Cup respectively. Traffic will jump 70%, due to many casual bettors " checking in". Hence the disclaimer. I certainly understand the appeal of the big races, expanded news coverage, bragging rights for an entire year, historical pageantry, but for me, its just another race. In fact the Derby is way down the totem pole as far as preparation is concerned. I handicap according to my strengths and a track record of long term profitable plays, which is low to mid-level dirt races. Certain turf races with older horses are also occaisionly included in my portfolio, but for the most part, its dominated by dirt plays.

Many people ask me why I give out selections on G1 races on my blog but then charge clients for the same selections. Simple answer: I don't..I would never include a "paid selection" here. I seldom tout G1 races and my customers know this. They would rather win an under-valued 25-1, 3rd race in Fukushima than a tepid 7-1 over-valued Grade 1 race. This is not to say that I under perform in the big races. Personally I still bet them and do quite well , but they are seldom put on the market.

Older horses are much easier to read: They seldom put up back-to back big numbers, running styles are constant, more trainer data is available. ******************************************

How I approach the Derby. My bankroll for the Derby will hover around ¥50,000. I'll try to isolate my top contender for Exacta play and box a few others hoping to catch a return for an insurance wager. If the previous day ( Saturday) or the races leading up to the Derby have shown a profit ,I might increase the sum to play some trifecta tickets.

I love horses from the G1 Satsuki-Sho. Those that competed in this race regardless of the finish, really sharpens their form, and increases the interval to the Derby for quality training time.

I like to catch value on a price. Eishin Flash was 40-1 in the Satsuki, but will probably be half-that in the Derby. That's something that wouldn't appeal to my wagering senses. Pisa might go off at 3.0 ...somewhat better than the Satsuki, no valued lost here...but of course there are many considerations.


Sean said...

This year's Derby might be the race of the year. Victoire Pisa is coming off 5 straight victories including the Satsuki Sho but still may only go off as the SECOND favorite!!!

Rulership might grow into a monster by fall but I still like him here over Reve d'Orient.

Keith Hagstrom said...

Hey Sean, I agree; on a firm track this race could be like last week, but instead of two horses we might have four in a dead heat! Perusa certainly will get a lot of attention considering his success at Fuchu. I'm always hesitant to go against any horse from Sunday Racing Co, as they keep their top class blood in top shape through out the year. Both Rulership and Orient belong to Sunday. In fact up until the Satsuki-Sho they shared the same groom.LOL..But everything being even I think Reve will have that extra kick to beat out Rulership. I'll take u up on that ¥10,000 wager if ur still interested.

Sean said...

OK, I'll take that wager. (But the bet is off if either horse gets scratched.)

Sean said...

I hope Rulership gets a good gate. Any gate is fine for Reve...

Keith Hagstrom said...

Agreed! I like Rulership's seasoning. The Derby will be his fifth race of this year, the most by any other horse I think. I'll definitely put him in some trifecta play as I will with Orient of course.