Saturday, July 31, 2010

Kokura Kinen

10th Race...# 9 Admire AURA...Will get between 4.8~6.4 in the win pool for a horse that looks to be headed in the right direction. First timer for the course and carrying 58 is a concern but with Ando back on board, Admire seems like a solid wager.

The Wager..4-9, 6-9. 9-16.¥2000 Each -Way Exacta...... (1-9, 9-11...¥1000 Each Way Exacta) ¥10,000 #9 Show Ticket

¥26,000 Total
Niigata 8 Race...#1 Hammer Price

The Wager..#1 with 2,5,8,11,15 ¥1000 Quinellas

Friday, July 30, 2010

July 31st Selection

Kokura...9th Race

# 2 Hero..Finally got his win after being very consistent with good numbers. Will wager that his success can continue.

The Wager: 2-10, 2-15..¥1000 Each-Way Exacta.......2-8, 2-9, 2-11, ¥1000 Quinellas

Tuesday, July 27, 2010

Kokura Kinen Preview

A battle of the beaten favorites. Admire Aura, White Pilgrim, and Sunrise Vega look to rebound from losing as favorites in their previous starts and make amends in this Sunday's Grade 3 Kokura Kinen. The return of Take Yutaka, on board the always consistent Smart Gear will prove a worthy obstacle in one of this summers better races so far to date. ****************************

Odds & Ends

Late speed is dominant here. An average running line taken from the past 10 years.
12 10 10 6 1 ( keep in mind that there were an average of 14 horses in the field)

Take Yutaka has had success here. 2nd place showing last year and winning three consecutive from 03-05

Horses coming off Graded races have won the past 5 years**********************************

The fractions in Admire Auras last race ( 46.4, 58.9 ,71.5) were the fastest of the weekend( at 1800m) It is admirable that he hung on for 3rd considering he was up front more on the pace than he usually is and carrying 58 . This un lucky horse ( health wise) just may have his form back! A win here puts him in line for the Tenno-Sho later in the fall. No shading my opinion, I like AURA in this one!

Saturday, July 24, 2010

Hakodate Kinen

9th Race..#7..Mayano Raijin... 12th last time out at 6.8 odds. Over exaggeration by the betting public here at 20.0. Not giving up on the 9yr-old just yet.
#16..Field Bear...most of his dominance at this track came earlier in his career. Betting that early speed wont hold and his positioning should be perfect for a good effort.

The Wager #16 with ¥2000 -Each Way -Exacta
# 7 with 4.9.12 ¥1000 -Each Way Exacta

Friday, July 23, 2010

July 24th

Kokura 11 Race..#14 Mikki Ballade

The Wager #14 with 1,5,13,16 Each-Way Exacta ¥1000

Tuesday, July 20, 2010

Hakodate Kinen Preview

Field Bear has all but marked his territory at the Hakodate track as he brings an impressive home field advantage to this Sunday's Kinen. Three wins and five seconds, out of ten career starts at the track will set well with the gambling public, but his 4th place finish here in June could be seen as a weakening of his strangle hold, or just a one race disappointment.

Dream Sunday and Shadow Gate look to take advantage of their early speed capabilities to net possible board showings or better.
Odds & Ends

This is a Handicap race but light assigned weight hasn't been an advantage. Lofty Aim came in 2nd with 52 kilo at 48.5 three years ago. That's about it.

Public Favorites: Last 10 years. Win: 2/10 ..Second..2/10...Hit the Board Total..4/10
I'm not interested in the low weight in as much as which horses get the high weight.
57 & 58 on pace setters, especially when they are all vying for the lead can be disastrous for them. Shadow Gate at 58 is very dicey .The Tomoe-Sho held two weeks ago has some participants that look to compete here. Something off-pace perhaps. Jamil has been running at a better class level than these but class drops can be deceiving. The 4yr old colt will be one of the favorites though.

Friday, July 16, 2010

Niigata July 17h & 18th


10th Race #14 Harp...Has been the favorite three consecutive races. Last outing came in 2nd without the fractions....if they are a tad faster here then the chalk horse should win.

The wager: #14 with 5,6,7 ¥4000 One-Way Exacta ( 14-5,14-6,14-7)

11th Race: 2-Horse Dutch #9 & #15

The wager: #9 with 2,3,13,15 #15 with 2,3,13 ¥1000 Quinellas

11 Race # 2 Surplus Singer: Pace projections from his last two races has him competitive here. The four month break could have him stronger or not..hence the good odds. Will wager he can hang on and hit the boards.

The wager: # 2 with 4,5,6,7,10,11,12 ¥500 Random Trifectas ( 21 tickets) ¥10,500

#11 ( Zakura) * watched video of the past two years of this race. Her lead up to those races are eerily similar to this years again. She does look comfortable at 1000 m.

Side Wager - 2-11, 4-11,5-11,11-12...¥1000 Quinellas

Tuesday, July 13, 2010

Summer Dash Preview

This Sunday's G3 Ibis Summer Dash could very well turn into a Summer BASH for those lucky enough to construe a solid trifecta play. Here are the payouts of the last 5 years ( since the race moved from mid August to July) ******************************************************
Q. Quinella E. Exacta RT. Random Trifecta ST. Straight Trifecta

2005 Q.4,660 E. 11,600 RT.6,890 ST. 54,240
2006 Q.5,560 E. 13,460 RT.8,970 ST.58,790
2007 Q.22,990 E.66,170 RT.50,310 ST.404,290
2008 Q.6,140 E. 10,100 RT.21,100 ST.120,810
2009 Q.4,150 E.7,780 RT.9,460 ST.67,570

*photo..Zakura getting pampered in preparation to making it three in a row this coming Sunday.

Two of the same horse that were both involved in the big trifectas in 08 & 09 are back at it again in 010. Kanoya Zakura, the winner of this race the last two years and Apollo Dolce, who placed 2nd and 3rd respectively.

Odds & Ends:

The public favorite doesn't
do well. In the 9 year history only one winner(04) . Has failed to hit the board 5/9 races.

The rail is non-existent. The last rail horse to pose any threat was in the inaugural race where Mejioda Ring won from gate 2.

Front Runners do well but they DON'T win in front runner style. Horses that had a front runner style in their previous races had a knack for dropping back in this race. Here is the winners race position at the 500 meter mark for the past 5 years.. 4th, 4th, 9th, 5th, 2nd. The only winner to go wire to wire was in 04 where Carlston Lighto did it.( The only favorite to win by the way)

The Females have won the past five races..7/9 over all


This will be a fun race to handicap and wager on. It gives me an excuse to box more horses than I should ( which I tend to do anyways) and with the favorite being( Kanoya ) at a probable luke warm 3.8 or higher, its safe to say there will be another good return this year.

Friday, July 9, 2010

July 10th & 11th Selections

July 10th Hanshin 10th Race..July Stakes

#13 with 1,2,5,8,18 ¥1000 Each -Way Exactas

July 11th 10th Race Procyon Stakes

Dutching #1 & 8 ..1-8, 1-11, 1-12, 8-11,8-12, ¥1000 Each -Way Exactas

photo* #11 Summer Wind ( no.8 in the Procyon Stakes)/

Saturday, July 3, 2010

July 4th Selections


11Race Radio Nikke Sho #1 with 8,9,10,13,14 ¥1000 Quinellas
Hanshin 10 Race Yongo Stakes #17 with 5,9,12,14,16

Friday, July 2, 2010

S.B.B.S Weekend 1

Gallop magazine publishes quarterly booklets called " Data Files". In volume 24 of the 2005 calender, a piece of statistical information caught my eye. The article pointed out that horses were more likely to win back to back races in the proceeding months of June/ July and July/August respectively. The reasons: Persistent off tracks favors the same horses. Many horses prefer running in the hot/humid conditions. There is a sub-par talent group as many quality horses sit out the summer. Quality dirt horses opt to run at the local tracks during the summer. Regardless of the reasons it gave me an idea to try through out this summer. From now until the end of August, I'm going to play the main races only and target horses that are coming off a win in their previous race.
Sounds simple enough and it gives me a reason not too overly ex cert myself in and otherwise cooling down period of my handicapping season. Hence the S.B.B.S ( Summers Back To Back Strategy) begins...

Hakodate 9th race #10 with 2,4,6,9,12 ¥1000 Quinellas
Fukushima 11 Race.Abukuma Stakes..N/A
Hanshin 10 Race Noda Stakes ..N/A