Tuesday, July 27, 2010

Kokura Kinen Preview

A battle of the beaten favorites. Admire Aura, White Pilgrim, and Sunrise Vega look to rebound from losing as favorites in their previous starts and make amends in this Sunday's Grade 3 Kokura Kinen. The return of Take Yutaka, on board the always consistent Smart Gear will prove a worthy obstacle in one of this summers better races so far to date. ****************************

Odds & Ends

Late speed is dominant here. An average running line taken from the past 10 years.
12 10 10 6 1 ( keep in mind that there were an average of 14 horses in the field)

Take Yutaka has had success here. 2nd place showing last year and winning three consecutive from 03-05

Horses coming off Graded races have won the past 5 years**********************************

The fractions in Admire Auras last race ( 46.4, 58.9 ,71.5) were the fastest of the weekend( at 1800m) It is admirable that he hung on for 3rd considering he was up front more on the pace than he usually is and carrying 58 . This un lucky horse ( health wise) just may have his form back! A win here puts him in line for the Tenno-Sho later in the fall. No shading my opinion, I like AURA in this one!


Sean said...

Right, IF he's back in form there's no question that he's one rank above the rest of the field. I think you either bet him hard or totally ignore him. The other way I might play this is to bet on Smart Gear finishing second. With Kokura's short homestretch and his (and Take's) penchant for coming way off the pace he'll need everything to go right to get the win. 2nd or 3rd is far more likely...
I'm also targetting the UHB Hai, the main race on Sunday in Hakodate. I like sprints cuz you don't have to worry too much about the pace. If you have thoughts on it pls let me know. Cheers.

Keith Hagstrom said...

Hey Sean, I hear you on Smart Gear..he came in 2nd seven consecutive races from 8/16 09 to Jan 5th 010..Im pretty sure I'll have a larger wager on Aura than I normally make in the summer, particularly for a main race that's not dirt.Haven't really looked at the UHB..the thing that caught my eye is that Lunch Box runs better when he is heavier..be interested to see his weight come Sunday morning