Sean..How is Hakodate treating you..it looks like rain tomorrow there...My best number for dirt tomorrow with a value line added in is actually in the 10th Race..#11 Lovin Life..last 3 races look ugly, 9,13,5..he scored back to back good numbers last year and he still has the best number in this race even with his 5th last time out..getting 3.0 is worth another shot and with yokoyama back on board..with 4,5,7,9 is what im doing..im leaving out 11in the 9th im not using my numbers but ill probably bet the 3 bracket..urbanity and apollo..split them up and bet some seperate quinellas..again im leaving out the favorites 1 and 13...hakodates 3rd race is rail heavy with early speed..not sure what the condition will be but 10 special road will be in stalking distance if they tire...morning line has him at 6.8....good luck
sorry, Lovin life is 12..im leaving out 11 in the 10th race
Cheers Keith on your hardwork and insight. I always learn a lot from your posts. :)Quick question about strategy. I have a buddy who actually owns race horses in Oz and is a really knowledgable bettor when it comes to the ponies in Australia. He only bets G1s in Japan and when he does he always takes a fav as his key horse in a trifecta or trio and then takes the field (rarely excluding horses unless he feels that they have absolutely no business being there). His rational is that more often than not a longshot will at least show because he feels that the quality of horses in these races are really high and he expects longshots to come because he doesn't feel that there is that big of a gap between the favs and longshots. All I know is he wins and usually big. Do you find this a weird strategy? Does it make sense?
Hey Robert, thanks for the comment> I always say" each his own " for finding your own strategy that ur comfortable with..however as far as ur friends strategy that's something i wouldn't do..there are usually 18 horses in a full gate and if u take away his favorite( 17) and just buy random trifectas without keying any horse to a position..that's 136 tickets..at a 1000 a pop that's 136,000 wager..u can see trios pay that much on occasion but it usually doesn't contain the favorite however...if he thinks long-shots have a even chance of coming in then maybe instead of keying the favorite horse just box a bunch of long-shots( 6 horse box) is 15 tickets and take 1 or 2 and put them in some trios...it would really cut down on his wager and he still can hold true to his philosophy about the race...if u are a casual better and like to buy G1 only then i think its appropriate to spread out ur wagers some bit...better safe than sorry tactic for sure..but 136 is a tad to many. good luck tomorrow ..
Cheers on the reply! I'll crunch the numbers when I get home, but if you key a horse and only bet 100 or 200 on say 15 of the other horses, I'm pretty sure you could be getting a pretty sweet return if a mid or longshoot came in. If all favs come in, you'd be lucky to get your money back...Then again, I might just be talking nonsense right now... As I've said many times before, I'm just a rookie! :)
PS Go Argentina!
Hey guys,Returned from Hakodate today. Unfortunately I don't have an I-phone so I couldn't access this site while I was there but thanks for the tips Keith. I would've won the third race had I been able to get on line...I had a great day though, uh, sort of. I lost the first three races but then nailed FOUR in a row! I was only betting 3 to 4 thousand per race but was +60,000 (thanks to a nice trifecta strike) going into my two target races, the 8th and 9th. I took two big home run swings but, sadly, struck out. In the Hakodate Sprint, my key pick was BB and Apollo but like you I ignored the 1 horse...Still, it's always great to get out to the track, the food and drink in Hakodate rock, and while breaking even doesn't cover plane fare it could've been a lot worse. Robert,Too bad about Argentina. I actually picked Spain to win in my office pool so I'm still in there with a shot but Germany seems unstoppable.
Hey Sean, had u got on line and bet my tout whatever money u won on the 3rd would have been lost in the 10th.lol..i rember fondly a few years ago where I went to H.K on a weekend bender to happy Valley and won enough to pay for hotel& airfare..no better feeling in the world..might think about the breeders cup this November where u know who is thinking about entering in the DIRT classic.. pack ur bags!
***Espoir City*** at least 8-1!! could be huge if he stays healthy
Sean, good to hear that you had a fun and profitable time at the track in Hakodate! I threw a hundy on Argentina the lift the WC before the tourney started so I was pulling for them, but Germany definitely was the better side and look the fav to win it now.Keith, you are right. I'm a little confused about my buddy's strategy. I will ask him to explain it to me again when I see him on Friday, because clearly I am somehow mistaken...
Sorry Sean, I thought that you left the track up. I misread your post. Breaking even is definitely better than losing. You actually go home feeling like a winner just because of the atmosphere and the GTs with friends!
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