Friday, May 29, 2009

May 31st Japanese Derby Selection

First of all let it be known that my past Derby selections have been less than stellar. I don't buy into the hype that goes with this race and I therefore treat it as a novelty bet more than anything else. There are 18 young horses that have never(for the most part) ever gone the 2400 meter distance before and with a few exceptions haven't reached a peak form cycle yet. The numerous pitfalls of handicapping this race are to numerous to mention but with some historical perspective we can come to some proven reasonings. The horse that wins this race comes from a previous G1 race! The horse that wins this race had finished in the top 3 in THAT previous race! With few exceptions the horse that wins this race will have odds of less than 8-1. If this model proves correct only 2 horses can win this race, Unrivaled or Triump March. Jo Capacino and Seiun Wonder will go off higher thus don't qualify. What is also true is that the favorites Don't finish together. A dark horse with an emerging form cycle comes through with very attractive odds. Let's bet on history happening again!

Derby ( Tokyo 10th race)

1-18, 7-18, 9-18, 10-18, 11-18 ( all 3000) uma ren
18-1, 18-7, 18-9,18-10. 18-11 ( all 3000) uma tan
1-16,7-16,9-16,10-16,11-16(all 2000) uma ren
16-1, 16-7, 16-9, 16-10,16-11 ( all 2000) uma tan
Longshot fun Box
1-17,7-17,9-17, 10-17,11-17,16-17,17-18 ( all 500) uma ren

Total Cost Of Ticket Outlay : 53,500

No comments: