Friday, May 25, 2012


Betting 3 yr olds is an always a changing,synergy process. Much like the popular " Reality Shows" of the day, American Idol, You Got Talent,etc we find our favorites,eliminate the sub par, in essence, becoming the ultimate judge where our eventual prognosis accumulates in the Derby.

Going back and analyzing my selections of this years crop and prep races, I found that I didn't really get an "early feel" for any of the contenders come this Sunday.

Of the 18 Derby entrants, only 6 were selected as my top pick in any of their given races. They were: Alfredo, Spielberg, Historical, Deep Brillante, Just a Way, and Trip.

Alfredo: Had a big win with him back in December in the Futurity. I never imagined him as a Derby horse mainly because the winners of this race seem to peak too early.

Trip: This was my Derby selection from the get-go. Already there is a certain sense of satisfaction in  that he actually found himself in the big race, unlike last years choice Target Machine, who never panned out. The Yayoi was a good race for him but not so much for me, as I failed to collect ,thanks in large part of my over estimate of Adams Peak and Fenomeno.( but I'm back on Fenomeno's bandwagon) :)

Deep Brillante: My top pick in two races. I like his determination. Putting him in trifecta formations with the contenders is going against conventional handicapping wisdom however. A fast pace usually spells the doom for such stalkers and aids the stretch runners, while a slow pace could be ideal for Deep and create huge hurdles for the late comers. Interesting enough, I don't see the outcome being much different either way. Brillante seems capable of holding a fast pace and the stretch runners, Gold & Co have the explosiveness to withstand even a snails pace.

Spielberg Bet the horse when he made that huge class drop to the 8th race. The track did him in that day but very consistent.

Historical: Owner Kondo was going through an dry spell .but I thought this horse could get him out of the rut. He did and I think there is a tremendous potential upswing for this horse.

Just A Way. Looks like a miler but his long stride and his penchant of taking time to get revved up seems to me to be ideal for this distance. This is my highest priced horse I will be using in my formations. 45-1 but worth a shot.

Now that every things been said and shredded I believe the talent of this race lies in the upper echelon of the odds board.  Even though Ikee has had a few disappointments with older horses this year, his touch with the 3yr olds is indisputable, The firm surface being only programmatic with the forecast will be a huge boon to World Ace. Traffic always being a concern notwithstanding , I'm wagering on a runaway winner on the 27th.


8-2,  8-6,  8-11,   ¥10,000 Exactas    ¥2000 Exactas  8-1, 8-4, 8-10, 8-12, 8-18
2-8,  6-8, 8-11     ¥20,000 Quinellas

¥1000 Straight Trifecta Formation


robert said...

Hey Keith,

It has been a long while, eh? I haven't been betting the ponies much at all this year, but I came up with 8-2,6,11,14 before checking your site. I hope that this is a good sign! We usually did well when we had the same picks last year.

Good luck today!

robert said...

Instead of betting 8-2 at 13-1 odds, why don't you just take the gates 4-1 at 10-1? That way you get Spielberg and Cosmo too...

Keith Hagstrom said...

Hey Robert, hows it going? Well unfortunately I have been betting the ponies all year but havnt won anything big to put me over. I had trip in the yayoi awhile back and he came in 2nd but didnt have the winner. I wasnt going to let that happen here, so I bought my core tickets but wheeled World with every horse just in no avail. With the fast turf I thought he would pull away earlier than he did. He didnt run into any traffic also so it was just a disappointing effort. The exacta paid handsomely too. Are u coming to tokyo over the Summer?. Let me know...

robert said...

Yeah, I was expecting a lot more out of him too. I have learned one thing for sure. Include every horse that C. Williams rides. When I was in Melbourne in Feburuary/March he won 5 races on one of the days and a few on the other. He might just be the best jockey I have ever seen...

June 23 might be a good day to get free money. Black Caviar is running in the diamond jubilee stakes and from what I've been reading all of the horses that could possibly give her a run for her money are chickening out and running in the King's plate instead. It is 1.5 to 1 odds right now at but none of the other horses as of now have a chance. The only way she loses is if the 30 hour trip zaps so she only has 10 percent of her power. lol

I have been so busy this semester that I haven't thought about anything besides work to tell you the truth. Now that you mention it though, I definitely have to come up there a lot sooner than later. The end of July is definitely a good possibility. Anything going on then?

robert said...

*zaps her