Niigata 11 Race ( Niigata Kinen)
#4 Smart Gear... The fastest finishing kicks of 32.8, 33.8, 34.4 but still just two 3rds to show for it. The only glimmer of a better result is that on the same track last year ( August 16th 1600 Class) he ran the fastest stretch of his career at 32.1 BUT still only managed a second place showing. Getting 5.8 in the win pool so I will dive in one more time on this proverbial late commer.
#6 Tosho Scirocco...Simply an odds play here. Was 6.4 in the G2 AJC back in January finishing 3rd. Has remained visible on the tote board being in the top 5 choices for the last three races but hasn't produced. Finished 5th in his last race but the final time /fractions weren't that bad to render him odds of over 30.0 which he'll probably get. I'll take it.
The Wager..#4 with 1,3,5,6,12,15 ￥1000 Each-Way Exacta
#4 with 1,3,5,6,12,15 Random Trifecta ￥500 (15 tickets)
#6 with 1,3,5,12,15 ￥500 Each-Way Exacta
4 comments:
Shawn, Looking like Mystery is getting between 10-15 in the win pool. If u can muster the courage to bet against B.B everything will pay well.
I'll give your main pick, 4-6, a shot and also have a little fun with 4, 14 and 16. A few thousand is all I'm prepared to wager here though.
On the other hand, I'm gonna invest heavily in the Keenland Cup. I think BB can be beaten but it's hard to imagine him finishing out of the money. I'll box 1,2 and 15 and attack it from all angles - duos, exactas, trios, trifectas. Then I'll add 5, 6 and 10 in some insurance/add-on triples. (And I'm only adding 10 because you guys would think I'm crazy if I didn't...LOL).
Well, the Niigata Kinen was always gonna be a tough proposition. Both Smart and Tosho ran well but I kinda figured there were gonna be 10 horses hitting the line at about the same time...
Keenland went wrong right from the start. Bad play on Mystery and 10 made me look like an idiot. I had been on a roll until today. It comes and it goes...
Hey Sean, Mystery didnt look bad down the stretch..if he gets a better gate next time it might be worth a look..I had Tosho at 38.7 with 6 horses but didn't put him with an 8-1 horse?..i was thinking a big payout all along with him but got a little greedy and wanted something bigger but i coulda lived with that payout though..im glad Smart Gear didnt hit the board with tosho coming in and then not getting a nice trifecta because i left 8 out..that really would of burned for awhile.
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