Saturday, April 16, 2011

April 17th





Kokura

11 Race....#1 Sunrise Mall. I'm not sure who decided the main race schedule at this track but this is the 5th time a 1700m dirt has been the feature . The favorite hasn't had much luck going 0-5 with a 4th place showing being the highest finish. Hopefully this will end tomorrow as Mall, a strikingly good looking horse out of Kurofune can duplicate a similar result as the last time coming out of the 1 gate(* see picture above) where he romped to a 9 length victory.

The Wager. 1 with 2,3,6,8,16 ¥2000 Each-Way Exacta ( ¥20,000)

18 comments:

Keith Hagstrom said...

Hey guys, i will bet the g2 tomorrow also. Absolute is an amazing 80-1 which is just ridiculous. The recent 5 results that are only published in the racing papers show nothing so ofcourse the punters will layoff him but If you go back to early 2009, he could have competed with any of these horses. I think its a mental problem and not a health issue so he could be extra dangerous if he pulls it together. I will bet the field with him including a Wide ticket field bet. Also I will play #9 Jack with 5,8,11,13,18. Craig, Personally I just look for improving times with 2 and 3 year-olds. With older horses it sometimes can be attributed to the surface running fast or the venue has changed giving an illusion of a faster time. I believe I bet on Silkport last Summer but in all honesty Im not sure if the faster times mean anything or not.

robert said...

Keith, when did Mall have a 9 length victory? According to the form I am reading, be has raced in one 1700m race at Kokura out of gate 1 and finished 2nd... If I was to bet that race I'd probably back 3 and maybe 2...

Keith Hagstrom said...

March 14th 2010, 2nd race at hanshin gate 1 which I believe is where my pic is from but last Aug 28th he ran from gate 1 and came in 2nd but I cant believe that is the photo which I posted. He definitively looks all alone. Are u betting the g2 tomorrow

Keith Hagstrom said...

" last time" certainly sounds like his last time in gate 1. But the JRA van only has him at number 1 listed aug 28th. His 9t length victory seemed like the pic above but the Van has his post from the 6 hole? Is that pic from Aug 28th? christ, he must have really died. Ill watch the race from the archives and see

robert said...

My buddy is visiting me from Australia so I am not sure if I am going to have time to make a play... I like 9,15,11,13 and maybe even 6 in that order. Your Absolute wide bet would look tempting too. :)

Keith Hagstrom said...

I got tom hanks to decipher it lol. That pic is from the 28th and indeed he came in 2nd( i watched it and he just got edged out by Boy Mantrace? He won by 9 in Hanshin but not from the 1 hole. Absolute has never been out due to injury..He has always
been listed as " in training". Of course he could very well finish last but I think with 80-1, we are getting the best of everthing for value here.

Keith Hagstrom said...

Ask ur friend about Black Caviar , an absolutely * no pun intended* stunning horse!

Sean said...

Robert, I'm with you on cutting Reach The Crown and Apapane, but the fact that I wanna axe two very good horses tells me this race is really up for grabs. At their best 9 & 15 are quality horses but both have historically been erratic. They finished 1-2 in February - can they do it again this month? I would say it's unlikely. The more I think about it the more I'm liking 11. I like 12 as a longshot too. But I don't wanna waste too much money on this race. Maybe I'll just sit it out and root for Keith and Absolute.

Keith Hagstrom said...

LOL..Absolute on the "house" all night if he comes in. Even 3rd would be cool

robert said...

Black caviar and a little Vodka?! :)

If I bet it, I'm gonna dutch 9&15 with the other horses I mentioned above and Absolute and then ¥5000 on Absolute to place.

Sean, I'll let you know if I'm going just in case you wanna place a little wager. :)

Heading out for the night now. Cheers!

robert said...

I meant Absolute to show. (複勝)

Sean said...

Robert, yeah pls let me know if you're going to hit WINS. As I've said, I don't really like my chances of winning this race but the odds seem tasty.

Sean said...

As of 8 o'clock Saturday night, Absolute is going off at 126-1. Every combination with him is over 100-1 and that includes WIDE bets. He's definitely undervalued but it's still kinda hard to buy him. Having said that, just about every horse seems iffy. Good time to go for a longshot.

Craig said...

Thanks, guys. Yeah, Keith. That makes sense: about times & younger horses. I'll keep it in mind. I got ripped yesterday with just three hours of sleep last night, so I should have the perfect mindset to make my final picks this morning. Hope it's an Absolute nightmare. *that was a lame pun, I know

robert said...

Everyone should have listened to Craig! If we would've picked the field with 17 for ¥500 each way, we would be laughing bigtime right now...

Craig said...

Life is full of lessons... I didn't go with my gut and I missed out. Silport... Ugh.

Sean said...

Ha! I seem to recall betting my life that Silport wouldn't factor. Hope you're not going to hold me to that. I did say that frontrunners can steal races and that seems to be what happened here. The favorite couldn't even overtake that very lightly regarded second place horse. Craig you might wanna go with your gut next week because the Satsuki-sho looks to be another tough one.

Keith Hagstrom said...

As Sean suggested I might want to change drinks. Absolute didnt even bother trying to make a run. Craig, this must have been a particular tough one to get over. I usually take solace that I probably wouldnt have played the horse that came in 2nd but in the case im sure u would have played 7 or 11. Wide open race next week but Fateful War will have all my money. He has my highest speed figure( accumulate)and having not raced since january Ito(trainer)will have this 3yr-old sharper than bob hope's wit. Totally took off on this course in his debut, had bullet workouts 2 weeks ago which is a good sign especially if this weeks workouts are just cantors or easy breezes which means he is already set( cant see them until the newspapers come out on Friday) but i suspect as much. Has the linage and probably will be getting between 8.0-11.0 on the odds. If the weather holds this will most def be my strongest g1 wager since the japan Cup!!!...did I mention I like Fateful War:)