Sunday, September 19, 2010
September 20th Nightmare on Elm Stakes
Sapporo 11th Race
The two favorites in tomorrow's Elm Stakes, A Shin Moreover and Courir Passion, have a combined 8 wins and 1 second out of nine races collectively at the Sapporo track. Strangely
enough we still see their tepid odds between 3.4-4.6 in the morning line. What gives? The last race in the Shirakaba Stakes, where they both finished first & second was a dismal effort. The winning time of 1.44.8 was only 0.7 tenths faster than the 8th place finisher. Moreover, was the lone front runner in the race with a very winnable pace line but still lost the lead after showing a strong hold form in similar fractions the previous race on August 18th.
Another horse in the race that has a strong track bias ( 4 wins out of 5 start) with a very consistent career looks to contend with these two and perhaps score a win with good odds. Admire Subaru, has had a steadfast of training during his 2 month layoff to shake off any rust there might be.
Somewhat contradicting myself, there is one horse that stood out in the Shirakaba Stakes. Tagano Kris S , ran into trouble finishing 6th as the second favorite. Her race previous to that was a solid 1.50.1 clocking with a good stretch time at 36.6( for this class anyways) Tanaba is back on board and without any of her last race troubles , she could surprise.
The Wager: #9 with 3, 5,6,8,13 ￥1000 Each-Way Exactas
#8 with 3,5,6,13 ￥1000 Each-Way Exactas
8 & 9 with 3,5,6,13 Random Trifecta ￥500 ( all tickets paying over 100.1)
Posted by Keith Hagstrom at 6:46 PM