Sapporo 11th Race
The two favorites in tomorrow's Elm Stakes, A Shin Moreover and Courir Passion, have a combined 8 wins and 1 second out of nine races collectively at the Sapporo track. Strangely
enough we still see their tepid odds between 3.4-4.6 in the morning line. What gives? The last race in the Shirakaba Stakes, where they both finished first & second was a dismal effort. The winning time of 1.44.8 was only 0.7 tenths faster than the 8th place finisher. Moreover, was the lone front runner in the race with a very winnable pace line but still lost the lead after showing a strong hold form in similar fractions the previous race on August 18th.
Another horse in the race that has a strong track bias ( 4 wins out of 5 start) with a very consistent career looks to contend with these two and perhaps score a win with good odds. Admire Subaru, has had a steadfast of training during his 2 month layoff to shake off any rust there might be.
Somewhat contradicting myself, there is one horse that stood out in the Shirakaba Stakes. Tagano Kris S , ran into trouble finishing 6th as the second favorite. Her race previous to that was a solid 1.50.1 clocking with a good stretch time at 36.6( for this class anyways) Tanaba is back on board and without any of her last race troubles , she could surprise.
The Wager: #9 with 3, 5,6,8,13 ￥1000 Each-Way Exactas
#8 with 3,5,6,13 ￥1000 Each-Way Exactas
8 & 9 with 3,5,6,13 Random Trifecta ￥500 ( all tickets paying over 100.1)
11 comments:
Robert, * NFL, good to know to wager on the NFL, I use bet365 also and 5 dimes..Have you ever had any trouble getting payments back here in Japan. I've run into a few stumbling blocks before, especially with Citi Bank..Tomorrow I like KC over Cleveland at +3 and the OVER on the game at 38... also Chicago +8 ( wont lay any points with Dallas until they show they are capable of being 8 point favorites against anybody. I agree with your Falcons at -7 too
*** Keiba
Tomorrow I'm literally betting against an entire race! The Shirakaba was just not up to snuff IMO..Shin Moreover will get a lot of action because his last few lines look somewhat impressive but on dirt he seems feast or fathom here..wins it or comes in 8th..one or the other
Except for one horse #8 non of my selections come from this race and it was by design....but ill be the first to admit its alot better when you have confidence in a particular horse instead of here where I just don't have confidence in whats left..a wager by nutrition if u will!lol
I might box all 6 horses too since the payout will be well above cost regardless of the combination.
Beware.. my last 3 posted selections have finished 3rd, 1st, 1st, and HAVE a loss of ￥22,000
It really is a nightmare of a race. Hmmm, I think I'll go with Admire Subaru - he's the class of this field. Unlike you I think 1 and 4 could factor but I also see a ton of other possibilities. Might as well go for some longshots. How's this for a wager? 7 & 9 with the rest of the field in a random trifecta ticket.
That combo would surely pay.. I might buy 1 & 4 with my 8 horse only as he is at 19.2 now. But other than that I"ll leave those two out of my package.
Guys, I wanted to post that my " list horse" is running today (June 7th post and August 28th comment post)..Rhien Dream number #6 in the 11th at Hanshin today..I finally got my money back on her after the win on Aug 22. I usually dont bet on these horses again but Dream was just so impressive in that race that im going back to the well once again..shouldnt be much competion for her in this race if the numbers continue or even a slight drop should be good enough...#6 with 3,4,8,9 ￥3000 one way exacta
#6 key for 2nd with 3,4,8,9 ￥1000 one -way exacta (
Keith, you the man! I backed off on the Elm (figured it was too difficult but other than Admire disappointing it wasn't really a surprising result which was, uh, surprising) and took your advice on the 11th at Hanshin. Ka-ching! Recouped my Rose Stakes loss (which if Apapane hadn't been interfered with and was just maybe a little bit fitter I feel I would've won) and plenty left over to spend on my wife. I owe you some beer.
thats good news sean...I had Rhein in every direction and did well too..I'm not really sure why I didn't post that as my main blog selection. This blog hasn't had a big day in awhile , just some nickle and dime wins here and there and I thought for sure those top 2 contenders weren't going to fire today. Shin Moreover came in third which was a surprise for me thinking all along he wouldnt even hit the board. As my friend said awhile ago, he agreed the numbers in the Shirakaba weren't that great but the other horses didn't have standout numbers either, so all in all the balance wasn't as one sided as originally thought.
Later, sean
Robert, our collective nfl picks were 6-2, not bad
Not bad at all. Nicely done! I'm actually 7-0-1 on the season with my push coming in that crazy Wash/Hou game which Washington really should've won. Oh well... Let's get em again next weekend!
Nice hit guys on the race at Hanshin. I stayed up all Sunday night watching football so I couldn't drag my ass out of bed in time to place any bets on Monday. Good to hear everyone had a profitable weekend!
Keith, our picks combined actually went 6-1-1. :)
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