Saturday, November 27, 2010

Japan Cup.. The Young Guns vs Buena

Hanging over the hopes of 17 owners is a " Wanted Poster" of one Buena Vista. The reward for capture is three million dollars and a photograph taken in the winners circle. There are four young guns for hire that have a chance to lasso the fillie, particularly the leader of the gang Eishin Flash. Benefiting from
a promising bloodline that has already produced Europe's Horse Of The Year, and one of Japan's most aggressive jockeys , this horse has all the moxie to be more than a mere flash in the pan.

Take Yutaka was quite correct on his estimate of Rose Kingdom. " I haven't seen his best yet".
His best will be needed tomorrow but with the ease Take has been riding this budding superstar in his previous two mounts, the third one might indeed be the charmer.

There wasn't a more impressive ride on this track and distance than the one Pelusa raced on May 1st. Yes, his gate troubles have to be acknowledged but we could very well be capturing lightning in a bottle if its a honest run tomorrow.

Arguably if Victoria Pisa had stayed in Japan instead of opting for France, there very well might have been some very different G1 and G2 results. Pisa was the Derby favorite who has done nothing wrong except get on an airplane. Trainer Sumi is a master of conditioning that should have this horses aim right on target.

Though not a young gun, Jaguar
Mail, has a potentially deadly draw
that must be respected. He should have plenty in his tank after basically just going through the motions in his last two races.
The Wager: 6-16, 10-16, 16-10, 16-6. ¥5000 Each-Way Exacta
2-16,16-2, 7-16,16-7, 8-16,16-8..¥2000 Each-Way Exacta

6-16-with 2,7,8,10 ¥1000 Straight Trifecta
16-6 with 2,7,8,10 ¥1000 Straight Trifecta
10-16 with 2,6,7,8 ¥1000 Straight Trifecta
16-10 with 2,6,7,8 ¥1000 Straight Trifecta
#11 Nakayama Fiesta...Getting an inflated price because of his most recent success overseas.
Of course capable but wagering that he will disappoint tomorrow.

#14..Oken Bruce Lee....lightly raced this year. It will be a tall order to duplicate last years terrific run.


7th Race

#12 with 2,4,5,9 ¥1000 Each Way Exacta

8th Race

#11 with 1,3,4,5,15 ¥1000 Each-Way Exacta


#17 with 1,6,9,13,16 ¥1000 Each-Way Exacta


Keith Hagstrom said...

Robert, thanks for the heads up on kyoto. Celebrity managed only 4th. Its hard to say if Shii could have done better. How are you guys playing things tomorrow. Myself, pretty much Rose and Flash with Vista.

robert said...

I am playing it somewhat similar, but as of now, I'm leaving out Kingdom.
I have 16 with 10 & 8 in each way exactas for 1000 each.
I put 16 with 2, 5, 7, 12 in quintellas and I also bought quintellas with 7-8, 8-10, and 7-10 for 2000 each.
Finally, I took brackets 4&6 for 2000.
I could barely break even this way or win up to 200,000 with 16-5.

Sean said...

Great post, Keith. The key to this race, I think, is how good the 3 year olds are. Pelusa is a monster talent, no doubt about it, but a bad start here will probably doom him (unlike in the Tennosho where he got away with it). Rose Kingdom gained 20 kg over the summer and beat Eishin Flash in the Kobe shinbun hai so punters will likely favor him but I still think Eishin has the most potential. Pelusa has undeniable talent. Nakayama Festa is too classy to ignore even if his fitness is questionable. And it's a great time to buy Jaguar Mail, especially with Moore on the reins. Not sure how I'll stake it but those will be my key horses.

Sean said...

Forgot to say tha Buena should probably finish in the top three. A little bit drunk. Sorry...

Keith Hagstrom said...

Good luck today guys. If we havnt lost too much money after the Cup the 11th race in tokyo has a nice trainer/jockey angle. The number 3 symboli Lawrance . Jockey Tanaka riding a Munakata horse for the first time is a long term 42% showing to hit the boards. His morning odds are at 30.1. Maybe a nice chance to recuperate our losses..Hey sean , dont forget to buy Buena! I think she might have a

Sean said...

Head still hurtin' but got my tickets...Total wager is 26,000 (best scenario I could get back 400,000+ but will need a lot of luck).

7-10-16 3500 yen
10-11-16 3500
8-10-16 3000
7-11-16 3500
7-8-16 2500
7-8-11 2000

10-16 3000 yen

7-11 2000 yen

10-11-16 2000
16-10-8 1000

Good luck...

Sean said...

Nice call, Keith! You were all over it.

robert said...

Awesome hit, Keith! Should have listened to you...

Sean said...

Keith, you really benefitted from that ruling. I can't help thinking of last year's Shuka sho. I thought I had a modest win until Buena got demoted to 3rd and suddenly my trifecta ticket was worth about 300,000. But I've had one of those rulings wreck a winning ticket too and it really hurt. Glad it worked out for you.

Keith Hagstrom said...

sean& robert........lady luck was really with me today! Pisa coming in 3rd was the best I could have hoped for. Leaving out fiesta and bruce was a gamble but thankfully it paid off. All together over ¥800,000 winnings and the blog over 270,000. Finally showing a profit! Hopefully we can all meet up someday for a celebratory beverage. I'm still not all that sure what Buena did to interfere with Rose, but I'll accept their ruling. lol