Saturday, November 6, 2010

November 7th

Tokyo 11th Race

Finally got a dirt track without the rain. Two horses that are capable on such a surface.

#2 Transcend
#4 Kings Ransom

The Wager:

#2 with 4 ¥2000 Each -Way Exacta #2 with 6,8,9,10 ¥1000 Each-Way Exacta
#4 with 6,8,9,10 ¥1000 Quinellas
#2 with 4,6,8,9,10 ¥1000 Random Trifectas


Keith Hagstrom said...

Robert..I bet that chicago/buffalo over on Thursday..I like that too..Particular if Cutler isnt sharp then the interceptions will lead to points win proposition...also took some fliers on Espoir City in the Breeders cup classic tomorrow..he is 20-1 morning line..had red desire today but she really disappointed me ..i had really touted her to my friend back home! Guess I wont go back for Christmas lol

Keith Hagstrom said...

* Meant that as Kyoto 11 Race

Sean said...

Good call today. I finished slightly ahead. I didn't get the third place horse and it didn't really surprise because nothing seemed quite right, no matter how many scenarios I played out in my head. In retrospect I should've just abandoned trying to find the 3rd and 4th horses and bet 2-4 really hard. Which brings me to a question on betting strategies. I've noticed more than a few times on your blog where you've won the race but if you followed your recommended betting amounts (e.g. 1000 each way exacta on several horses and then sometimes trifectas as well), you'd actually lose money. Like today for example. Did you bet more than 2000 on 2-4? Or do you accept a loss hoping for a bigger score? I'm not criticizing you - the same thing happens to me sometimes. But I never like it. My feeling is if 2 and 4 are your key horses and those horses finish 1-2, you have to come out ahead, preferably way ahead. Of course when your key horses are the favorites it makes exotic betting a lot more attractive. I don't know...guess I'll have another beer. Later.

Keith Hagstrom said...

Hey Sean, good points. I like such questions because then I have to look in retrospect what the heck I'm doing. I have increased my " ticket package" considerably over last years wagers and it has created some big loses particularly on races I wasn't even that interested in. When I do my periodical rundown on all my previous result I will mark a loss( such as today's result) where one of my tickets pays but overall I lose on the package. In some degree I'm also handicapping to an audience and a blogs bankroll which changes my own personal style to a more liberal style especially with the number of ticket counts per race. Even though this blog hasn't had a quarterly profit since early spring there is still an overall profit margin that I use to as a parameter for my wagers. If the overall profit balance is say just over a 50,000¥ then I would considerably have to scale back the number of tickets. This isnt obvious to the casual traffic viewer unless people go back in the archives and check. I will soon change the format on the blog here that is more viewer friendly on the overall results on a weekend by weekend basis...When I key 2 horses( such as today) the best result isn't always if they come in together( low-priced horses that is)so I configure different scenario outcomes for each "package" Worst Case vs Best Case...the worst case is obvious. Sometimes as today the scenario plays out as you indicated..if this or this comes in I'm willing to accept a minor loss(insurance) if only I can get this combination. Today's( or yesterdays) play out would have been if #2 Transcend came in 2nd( without the 4) or first (as he did) but with a mid-price flier for a good result plus nab the trifecta. As with the case recently I believe its not my betting strategy that's the problem its the selection process. Had I included 14, in my random trifecta package yesterday there would have been a good profit result. I haven't been getting that 3rd horse as of late. The head scratch er came this past summer in the Nigatta Kinen( aug 29th) where I had Tosho Scirocco at 30.1 but neglected to put him with an 8-1 horse. Hindsight is always 20/20 but that one neglected ticket could have spelled a quarterly profit for this blog instead of a loss..all on the turn of 1 ticket..Sean, I like the idea of giving both the reasons behind the ticket configuration and the horse selections. I will start doing that from this weekend. Looking back at some of my previous selections even I cant remember why I did it that
It will be helpful on many accounts.

Sean said...

Thanks for the detailed response. I get your betting strategy and don't disagree with it except sometimes, as in yesterday's race, your system relegates the two strongest horses in the field to an insurance ticket. So ironically, when you key 2 horses that are strong favorites - like yesterday - the best result will NEVER be for them to come together (at least not for quinella/exacta tickets). But that's what gambling is all about I guess...

Sometimes, if you're convinced that two horses are clearly in a different class than the rest and that third place candidates are too numerous, it might be wise to settle for low odds. But probably like a lot of people I'm more comfortable spreading 20,000 yen on various trios than putting it all on a 5-1 quinella. Yesterday that would've been the smart play but of course it's all in hindsight...Anyways, we've got another good race this Sunday. Also looking forward to your new format.

robert said...

This is a great thread. I really enjoyed reading it. Cheers! I am also really looking forward to your new format.

Just to let you know a couple NFL bets that I really like and will be betting this week are: Atl -1(-105) and Cleveland +3.5(-110)... GL