My 3 month old son could break out of the gate cleaner than Pelusa. Gotta think he's gonna blow it again. And I doubt he can reproduce that explosive finish we saw in the Tennosho at Nakayama at this distance. And I don't see him as the type of horse that can make a long spurt between the 3rd and 4th corners. The only way I see him factoring is if he nails the start and grabs a very prominent position. And I really think that's an unlikely scenario but yeah the big question, well, the first question, is can he get out of the gates.Having said all that I'll still include him in some formations because 1) I'm usually wrong (LOL) and 2) he is defintely one of the few horses here talented enough to beat Buena.
Saw his workouts on the Green Channel last night and he looked so smooth. But the start,,exactly!! Cant prove it at all..but 4 consecutive bad starts at the same gate track. Could it be THAT gate..First time at Nakayama clockwise course..uhm? the public likes him so his odds will probably be to low in accordance with his recent results but definitely 10.0
He drew an even-numbered gate which may help. I like Pelusa over Bruce Lee. Buena will be in the winner's circle by the time Bruce gets it into top gear.
I got a feeling your going to throw out my selections for the Alima along with your daughter's bath water.LOL..Rulership vs Orient was one thing for a friendly wager but Vista vs Bruce..uhm? no I think I'll pass.
No, I'm looking forward to your selections and if you've got a convincing reason for going with Bruce Lee I'd buy him. He's arguably the second or third strongest horse in the field - the extra distance is a plus too but I just don't like him at Nakayama. I confess I'm really not sure how to play this. I wanted to cut Rose Kingdom but he drew an ideal gate (again). Not sure what to do about Sumii's horses either. Common sense says Danon has no chance but maybe to win this one I'll have to throw out common sense with my SON'S bath water. The punters on 2channel absolutely despise Miura but his horse is attractive. Red Desire has beaten Buena and not many horses can boast of that but her condition? At 6 y/o, Dream Journey can't be finished. If he gets a pace...The Derby horse has looked good in training...and so on and so on. Help!
LOL, I can remember every G1 race winner from 87 on but I cant remember if you had a boy or girl 50/50 chance and I got it wrong..doesn't bold well for sunday. As you know from my blog I love scenario handicapping meaning if this happens great but if this well its ok, and this,hey I get my money back!..Im pretty sure thats how im gonna play it because if you pick Buenna Vista as your main play then you have to play her with very few tickets perfectly and with a little more than usual. Of course I cant say bet against her that would be suicide but truth be told to put her in a few trifectas and trios all alone A. wouldn't pay much anyways...B. if your willing to match her with some mid-fliers and can make the case for them , then hey that's a strategy and better than the one I have at the moment.lol
I am actually not sure if I'm going to bet on the Arima or not. I would be absolutely shocked if Buena didn't win it so I expect the payouts to be low. The only serious contenders IMO are Red Desire, Victoire Pisa, Rose Kingdom, Danon Chantilly and Dream Journey. I don't think that betting most of these horses in exactas or quintellas with Buena will be all that profitable unless Danon can sneak in there...
C'mon, you gotta bet the Arima, Robert!News Flash: Rose Kingdom has been scratched! One headache taken of. Confidence level rising.
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