Saturday, December 4, 2010

Japan Cup Dirt

Hanshin 11 Race

If last weeks Japan Cup was G1 on steroids, then conversely tomorrows Japan Cup Dirt is a G1 on training wheels. Minus the pageantry and big names, the Dirt is still an enticing race.

The November 7th Miyako Stakes had some impressive " rating results," in particular the top two finishers. Transcend has gotten the lead in three out of his four previous starts from all different gates. Looking to be the sole pace setter here, he should have a clear run to continue what he has been doing , putting in quality starts. .

Kings Emblem came of the pace to nab a second place finish behind Transcend in the Miyako. This race could be all deja vu, as the race fractions look to be similar to those on Nov7th.

Aliseo is following in the hoof prints of Reach The Crown by switching surfaces.There is nothing to indicate that he cant be successful. I would rather be on him than off in this spot.

There are a lot of things going against Vermilion, age & layoff, just to name a few. Recent workouts give reasons to think there might be one more big race left in this savvy dirt veteran.

The Wager:

# 3 with 2,7,10... ¥4000 Each-Way Exacta
# 2 with 7,10 ......¥2000 Each -Way Exacta
# 3 with 1,11,13,15,16 ¥1000 Each-Way Exacta

* profit index on every ticket except 1-3, 3-1......


Keith Hagstrom said...

Anybody bet todays G3?. Rulership and Hiru paid 14.0..not bad.

robert said...

I'm going heavy on 3=1,3=2,3=7, and 2=1. I'll play some trios for a little insurance with 3-1 and 2,5,7,10 and maybe even 14...

Sean said...

I like a 1 2 3 box. However, that's too boring. I'll use that as insurance. 3500 each

1 & 3 and 3 & 1 in straight trifectas with, 2, 5 and 13, 3000 apiece with 2 and 2000 with 5 and 13.

And for fun: 3-5-13 (600 to 1) and 3-13-5 (700 to 1), 500 each

I wanted to buy Vermilion & Aliseo but not enough value for what are really iffy picks.

Sean said...

Tough race to win but lesson (hopefully) learned: no matter how talented a horse may be, if he's always doing 'extreme' keiba (like Silk Mobius, the 1 horse)there's a good chance he'll disappoint.

Keith Hagstrom said...

Its funny, I included some high priced flier tickets except the horse besides Transcend to have a win in their previous start. Not sure why I overlooked him..did think 1800 might have been to long.

Sean said...

Yup. I had him pegged as a 1400-1600 m specialist...I wonder if Rulership is going to the Arima.