Saturday, April 23, 2011

Satsuki Sho


Tokyo 11 Race

#16 Tosen Ra...The weather and still unpredictable form cycles makes this a tough race to handicap. A very small sample but analyzed the off track pedigree of Deep Impact, and his colts have shown early success. ( 2-1-3-4). Tosen is trained by Fujiwara, which makes him the most likely to have been prepared to take advantage of this surface rather than the other two Impact colts.

The Wager 16-5, 5-16 ¥5000 each-way Exacta 16-4, 4-16 ¥5000 Each -Way Exacta

40 comments:

Keith Hagstrom said...

craig, yep got it last year. Just my right toe. Took some meds for awhile. Late last year I took a blood test and my uric acid? was borderline high again. Apparently this is an indicator of gout. I don't take any medicine now but Im interested in what you suggested for sure. The doc basically just told me to drink lots of water, which I do every night, especially American Water or better known in the world as Budweiser.

Keith Hagstrom said...

craig, actually just noticed ur comment from an earlier thread. Ill let u know more about this later, gotta finish up my selections for tomorrow.

Sean said...

Tough race although I think the turf should be in fair condition assuming we get the sunny day we've been promised...Wager: 2, 4, 11, 16 box, 1000 yen each way exactas. Then 9 trios using 4 as the bank horse with 1, 5 and 14 plus the other three horses in my box (1-2-4, 1-4-11, 1-4-16, 2-4-5, 4-5-11 and etc. 1000 each). Total wager of 21,000. But very subject to change. Good luck but don't bet the farm on this one boys.

Keith Hagstrom said...

Forgot it was Easter today. Might have to throw in a few fliers with PRAY!

robert said...

Happy Easter boys!

Keith, I'm going out on a limb here and going to say that it's the other trained horse that steals the show. There must be something going on that we don't know about. I was eyeing Danon Mill all week, but after seeing his that Uchida will be taking his mount and then his draw I was completely sold.

6 will be my key with 4,5,9,11,12,17. Heck, I'll even throw in 16 so I'm not betting against you. :) ¥14,000 total.

GL today everyone!

robert said...

*the other Fujiwara trained horse...

Sean said...

Added a little gate insurance in case Sadamu tanks: (1-3), (1-6) and (3-6). Good luck!

Keith Hagstrom said...

First impression? Is this as good as it gets? Nothing against 12 but leading into the derby I still dont see a definite play on any horse. I can almost tell you I will be boxing about 5 horses and honesty I'll be surprised if its any of these top 3. Thought Pray had the will to win but with the bad gate and somewhat unsteadiness couldn't continue. But i cant figure him at 2400 though. Alot of the late runners really couldn't find they're footing so the potential on a fast track is still debatable and unproven. Im really keen to see the Kyoto Shinbun hai on May 7th and see what that produces. We got the Aoba next week, which if nothing else we can compare times on all 3 of the major preps from the same SURFACE. A huge advantage that hasnt happened EVER, since the fuchu course was re-installed with new turf . As a gambling propisition I try not to dive into the hype of the Derby but this years one might actually have some huge value, even for a box ticket. The favorite( whomever it may be) surely cant get 3.0 ( 3.7-4.1) ? Hey guys, whats ur gut reaction to the unfolding of the Derby? Do you see anything

Keith Hagstrom said...

Todays 1st race at fuchu had my favorite trainer Munakata teamed up with Yutaka ( #3 Top of Praise). This hasnt happened in 2 YEARS. The course scared me a little but I hit it rather hard especially for a 1st race wager. Came in 2nd but unfortunate with one of the favorites. I was looking to score big with her. The exacta paid 16.0 but it was just enough to cover my total wager. Sometimes when you come across certain nuggets like this and it feels right you can prove to yourself this is a beatable game. * just have to find more of them :)

Keith Hagstrom said...

Also guys, I was wondering if any one is interested in starting a " BIG 5 " pool? Today was the debut ticket available only on internet or JRA telephone services( which I have both) Its a Sunday ticket only consisting of 5 different designated places and tracks. You have to pick the winner of each race. * there is no constellation prize for picking 4 ( I was thinking everyone could chip in 500 yen a Sunday for 1 month ( say 2000 total) to bet 5 different tickets at 100 yen a ticket. If we get it ( regardless of the actual punter that made it) we all get equal shares. Todays break down was 1) favorite,2)third,3) third)4) third 5) fourth..the payout was ¥810,000 for a 100 yen ticket. not bad considering the horses odds weren't bad at all. I expect some astronomical payouts in the future. Its a tough ticket but more people in the pool the better chances. let me know what u guys think?

Keith Hagstrom said...

*races and tracks

Keith Hagstrom said...

It doesn't have to be 500 . up to you guys

Sean said...

I thought 12 looked pretty impressive today but it could just be the rest of the field was mediocre. What I'd really like to know is why I didn't have 12 in my trio formations. Actually I had a few reasons but they turned out to be stupid and costly...

I'm in for the BIG 5 pool. And if I may make a a suggestion you might wanna think about reviving your charity races too.

Keith Hagstrom said...

Sean, yeah I have put those charity races on the back burner but at least we know where the money will go to now. I'll do those from next week. I'm way behind on all the stuff I wanted to expand on-line. March 11th set me back a bit but mostly its because im so dam lazy.

Craig said...

Hey Keith, I think I saw what you were talking about on TV yesterday. And I like the idea of forming a group and paying out equally, at ¥500 a pop there's no need to be greedy. Is there a schedule out for the year for the Big 5? Do you (Keith) wanna organize it so we send you picks & cash? Let me me know and I'll probably send you cash for the whole year, then week by week for picks. Cool?

An Advocate of Beer said...

Keith,

Yeah I'm sure there's gout in my future as well. But beer is so delicious!

Tough races yesterday. Although I'm becoming a fan of Neko Punch who seems to at least be able to place.

I am likewise down for the Big 5 deal. Let me know what you need from me.

Cheers!

Keith Hagstrom said...

Cool, first I have to learn how to navigate the system and how to make multiple bets. Im looking at say 15-20 members. This would give us " live tickets" of at least 100 from the first race of the ticket. I dont know why I have BIg 5 in my head but its called WIN 5

robert said...

I'm in for the WIN 5 for sure.

I have been pretty ice cold recently. The worst part about it is I'm picking most of the horses, but the way I've been betting the races has been just plain stupid. 3 of my favorite 5 horses going into the race ended up 1,2&3, but for some stupid reason I drank a ton of Danon Mill koolaid and bet it all wrong... What was I thinking solely backing a horse that had never ran in a graded race or at Tokyo before?!?!

If you look at all of Orfevre's L3F times, I think he might be for real.

Keith Hagstrom said...

Got an email from a friend saying how easy it would be if u just box the top 5 favorites in every race, similar to the results from the Win 5 from yesterday. HA!! The ticket amount for that is 5x5x5x5x5=3125 tickets. It would take a guy all night just to make out the ticket lol. I think that a guy might have to wheel 1 horse in each ticket or something like that but this will be one tough ticket to cash,

robert said...

In theory your buddy's idea seems like a half decent one and could be very profitable over a year, but I hear you about not wanting to be the guy filling out all of those tickets! I was at the track about a month ago and I was betting for 4 different people plus myself and it was pretty brutal.

Are most of the races they chose either stakes or graded races?

robert said...

Here's the math on your buddy's proposition. 3125 tickets x ¥100 per ticket= ¥312,500. ¥312,500/15 people= ¥20,833 per person. ¥312,500/20 people= ¥15,625 per person. Last week's payout was ¥810,000 with a 1st, three thirds, and a 4th favorite coming in... ¥810,000/15 people= ¥54,000. A profit of just over ¥33,000 per person. ¥810,000/20= ¥40,500. A profit of about ¥25,000 per person. If we could just win half of the time (twice a month), we could turn a nice little profit. Then again, it might be a little risky if it's a field of 18 horses every race...

Keith Hagstrom said...

Hey robert, as far as I know it seems to be one 9th race, and both 10th races and both 11th races. But im not sure what will happen when there are 3 tracks running. And im sure such races as the Megaro Kinen after the derby will be included. Im still trying to find out when they designate them I bought Gallop this afternoon but i cant find any info on next weeks ones. Even though the math in theory seems solid like you said I really think the purpose of these exotic bets are to score BIG and not just nickle and dime it. I do enough of that :)..If we box the top 5 only it doesn't give us a possibility to really nail that income booster if know what I mean

Keith Hagstrom said...

*ALERT ALERT****

Target Machine is entered in the Aoba-sho. Time for me to lose more money on him :) ( actually if we get a fast track Im still high on him). He was the favorite in the Yayoi sho but Tanaka took him to the lead. blistering fractions and died. hindsight being 20/20 maybe that was the plan ( since he wasn't fond of nakayam in the first place).get that endurance up a bit, come back to fuchu where he belongs and boom !! a win here and off to the Derby. Tanaka needs a derby horse now,because of fateful wars utter collapse. Think we might have a live one here boys at over 8-1.!!!

Sean said...

With Williams on the saddle Tosen Reve will probably go off as the favorite in the Aoba-sho but the field looks pretty Deep (forgive the pun). But perhaps a horse sired by Deep's nemesis Heart's Cry will emerge as the Derby favorite...Gustave Cry has awesome bloodlines, he's won at 2400m in Tokyo, has showed massive improvement in his last few races and has Uchida aboard. I'm partial to his delightfully bizarre name too. I think he'll factor.

Keith Hagstrom said...

im liking this race. Its all or nothing here for the top 3. Its not like the satsuki where a horse still has a chance to get in the back door of the derby house by getting lucky on May 7th. Trainers like Ikee who already has a derby horse of course would like to have a few more. Jockeys without mounts for the big dance too figure. A lot of these horses are nominated for the Principle Stakes so there will be a lot of strategy and gamesmanship at who is entering what horse where, and which do we have the better chance.

robert said...

Sean, Craig Williams is back in Japan now? He won my friend and I a lot of money on the day of the Tenno-sho last year. I thought if he came back, he would be racing in Kyoto this weekend... Then again, I guess he could race in Tokyo on Sunday and Tokyo on Saturday.

Keith Hagstrom said...

Trainer Ikee Double shot this weekend. Sat with tosen and sunday with Glory??

Sean said...

Robert, yeah Williams is back hoping to win the Tennosho two years in a row but I don't like his chances since he'll be riding pokey Jamil. Shii is getting the Glory.

Sean said...

Keith, It looks like connections for Target Machine are setting their sights on the Principle Stakes.

Keith Hagstrom said...

Interesting, well that has always been the weaker of the two. But Rulership has proven to be a very solid horse. I wonder who else is skipping the Aoba.

Keith Hagstrom said...

**** Shadai Farm has paid the supplemental fee and fateful War is going to the Derby. Very interesting indeed. Nakayama knight as well. Its obvious that that turf was not running well and everyone whats a second chance come May 29th. This plays well into my strategy of eliminating those 3 finishers. But who knows. They are counting on a fast track.

Keith Hagstrom said...

*wants a second chance

Craig said...

Gotta love the first name, Mr. Williams.

Keith Hagstrom said...

Tosen Ra has just announced he is Derby bound after a terrific 7th place showing in the Satsuki.lol..This will be a FUN derby to handicap.

robert said...

Looking at the Tennosho I think it'll be a 5 horse race between Glory, Pelusa, Rose, Kitz & the wildcard Gentoo. I've pretty much eliminated every horse for the same reasons, either I don't think they can handle the weight or the distance. That being said, Glory and Pelusa haven't ever ran anything over 2500m and Pelusa has never raced at Kyoto before... Mitz and Gentoo can definitely go the distance, but are they past their prime and a little outclassed by the 4 year olds??

For the Aoba, I like Gustave Cry a lot.

What are you boys thinking?

Sean said...

Go Gustave! I think he's a good bet but it looks to be a tricky race. Will definitely bet against Tosen - no value there - gambling/praying that he won't run like his sister Buena Vista just yet. I'm not sure which of the two Shonans I like but I intend to be smitten by one of them come Saturday. Carmine, Win Variation, and Lift The Wings will also be on my ticket.

Haven't looked too deeply at the Tennosho but I can't see Pelusa holding 3200m. Has anyone been able to find any races of Gentoo on YouTube or elsewhere? I've had no luck...

Craig said...

How much does position factor in a 3200m compared to let's say a 2000m. Depends on the track as well, right? I'm liking Rose at the 4 spot on Sunday.

Keith Hagstrom said...

sean, Yep i agree with you on Lift the wings. he was on my short list but since target machine looks to be spotted for next week Im holding back on any big wager. But i do like goto here.@ craig..absolutely nothing as far as im concerned . Going 2400 means you can place at 3200. The early fractions are so slow it really doesn't matter the extra length. To The Glory is a 4 year old that is coming into his own that is still second fiddle to the rest of the 4 yr-olds but thats because they are such a good crop of horses. Pelusa is getting attention because he broke well last? Sorry, it takes more than one time to show a pattern for me. Sean, bloodhorse.com has an arcive video but unless the ground is heavy come sunday I dont think it will much matter

Keith Hagstrom said...

Carmine , tosen, lift the wings. my oh my. be patient boys because Target has ABSOLUTELY nothing in his way for next week!!!

Craig said...

Is there a link to see the "Big 5"? Final ideas on how we shall go about entries, money deposits, etc?