Saturday, July 23, 2011

Hakodate Kinen

Hakodate 11 Race.....# 15 Edono Yamato

The Wager. 2,3,5, 15,16 ¥1000 Each-Way Exacta. ¥2000 with # 15 only


An Advocate of Beer said...

Good call on 3, but that was a big shakeup race for the others. On a side note, I've been playing around with excel and inputting some numbers for fun and despite the fact that this probably wouldn't work in real life (I'm going to try anyways) The data shows 3, 4, 6, 7, 8, 11 have a higher prevalence of coming in either first or second (by about double) in races with an average of 12 horses. The average exacta payout over the weekend was 11,531 yen.

What would happen if you just chose 5 of 6 numbers at the top and boxed them for every non major race? I'm curious to see what would happen.

I acknowledge that nothing beats sound handicapping but what are your guys' thoughts on a strictly numerical system?

Keith Hagstrom said...

Hey Beer, I often do this when I go to the NAR races particularly Kawasaki or Funabashi. I dont know these horses nearly as well as the JRAs, so I decide a set of numbers and just bet on them. These " due race" type stratagy can work on any given day but I would be hesistant to do permantly over a long stretch of racing days. If you box 5 numbers in exactas ( 20 tickets) and say those numbers dont come in for 4 consecutive wagers then already there is a deep hole to climb out of. It might come to a point when you need a 100-1 combination just to break even. If you go on the jra homepage they have the results of the past 3 months I think. I would be curious at the long term results of those listed numbers over that time and what was the longest fry stretch of those numbers not showing. I know people who bet due numbers on win tickets only. Say. like number #10, then adjust their wagers to always make sure that when 10 finally comes in their will be a profitable showing. The problem arrises when 10 is the favorite or close to one then you have to bet more money. let me know how this system would have fared this past spring.

Keith Hagstrom said...

* dry strtch

An Advocate of Beer said...

Hi Keith,

Thanks for the feedback.
That's my project for this week then, to sit down and analyze what the payout would have been over the past three months boxing 5 numbers. My initial calculations gave a 1/3 chance of winning each race but I need more samples to make sure. I know that there are computers that do this for 4 horse 馬連 boxes and seem to do pretty well.

The due strategy with a win ticket sounds a lot like doubling down at blackjack. I wasn't even considering the strategy of upping the bet after every loss (probably because I would run out of bank roll pretty fast)

Sean said...

I've thought about employing a somewhat similar betting strategy but focusing on favorites rather than just numbers. Find a race whether the favorites look vulnerable (although that's not even necessary) and box the 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th and 7th favorites. Almost every combination should be around or more than 100 to 1.

Sean said...

And had I employed my system last week for all 72 races - and assuming I bet the same amount on every race (say 15,000) - I would've had winning tickets worth about 600,000. Hurray! Nowhere near recovering the outlay of just over a million but with a little refinement and luck I think that system could produce some profitable weekends. And last weekend was something of an anamoly I think. At least one of the top favorites hit the boards 52 times. That's gotta be on the high side.

Beer Ad, I look forward to the results of your research.

Sean said...

I'm not sure anyone cares but I actually screwed up the calculations on the weekend. An exacta box of five horses is only 20 tickets whereas I thought it was 30. Which means my outlay would've been only 720,000 yen in total. So even on a weekend when the favorites ruled, the system didn't do that badly.