Saturday, September 24, 2011

STV SHO

Sapporo 11 Race...# 2 ABLE VEGA & HIRABOKU IMPACT.... The other two tracks have Graded races running but with their low priced favorites taking away any particular value that was there ,I will dutch a couple of contenders in this 1500 meter affair.

The Wager: # 2 with 3,7,12,14 ¥1000 Each-Way Exacta
# 3 with 7,12,14 ¥1000 Each-Way Exacta

10 comments:

robert said...

Good luck today Keith!

I think Rocket Man will crush the field next week. I don't think the odds will be that good though...

Sean said...

Keith, you might be making the right decision but I can't resist a talent-packed trial race. Plus I think Frere Jack might be the best of the Deep Impact-sired colts this year. Could be wrong though...
7 & 11 in trios and trifectas with 1, 5 and 6.
Then as insurance 5 & 7 with 1, 6 and 11.
Not a lot of value here perhaps but I think it's a high percentage play that could be fairly profitable (if 1 or 6 can place 2nd or 3rd). Good luck.

Keith Hagstrom said...

Sean, good read on Jack. Both favorites looked awesome today. Robert..yeah a race that i can get excited about to handicap. Im gonna look at the Centura stakes again. It was ran as a snails pace but still saw 4/5 finishers come off it quite well. I get these strange reads and with the hype of Rocket Man and the continued backing of Lucky Nine I could imagine a Japanese horse stealing the spot light. I'll probably be framing my handicapping in this manner but certainly cant ignore the shippers.

robert said...

There were rumors for the past couple months that Black Caviar was going to make the trip... Rocket Man vs Black Caviar would've been well worth traveling to Nakayama to see the race.

I love beating dogs but honestly looking at the probable field, there is no way in heck you can bet against Rocket Man coming in 1st.

robert said...

*BETTING Dogs!!! lol

I'm not Vick, I swear!!! :)

Craig said...

Rob may be a salami slapper, a dolphin flogger, a chicken choker, a snake charmer, a romper stomper, a turkey tickler, a crack filler, but dog beater? No!
Never seen that, yet.

Sean said...

Is Rocket Man unbeatable? Nope. Green Birdie beat him last year. 17 wins and 4 seconds from 21 starts is certainly impressive but those second place finishes occurred the few times he took on world class horses. He should factor but I might play him to finish 2nd or 3rd in trifecta formations. Either or that or play for a modest gain...but what fun is that?

robert said...

Of course Rocket Man is not unbeatable, but I just can't see anyone in this field doing it. Green Birdie is 8 years old now and I don't have any faith in Go Go. A lot of people like Curren Chan but she is outclassed IMO.
Sure the odds will be short but Rocket Man seems to be in just incredible form right now... Any idea what the odds will be for him to win? Somewhere around 2-3?

For the Prix de L'Acre de Triomphe, I'm backing Snow Fairy and So You Think. I'm a little scared of Hiruno but I think the Fairy will work a little magic at 15-1. If it was 2000m I would give the race to So You Think, but at 2400m I think Fairy will take it in a close one. Any predictions?

Sean said...

Yeah, I have to concede that the Rocket should romp here. If he goes off at 3 to 1 forget the rest and go all in on the 'tansho.' But I reckon it'll be closer to 1.8 by race time.

Dasher to me is the best of the rest so I'll definitely by (3-4) gate (cuz you'll pick up San Carlo and Fifth Petal for almost nothing). But Dasher will need a good trip which for some reason he rarely gets. So I like San Carlo and Lucky Nine ahead of him for trios with Rocket Man because they offer better value and are more consistent. 1 & 5 and 5 & 6 with 4, 8, 10, 14 and 16 (bet more in the trios with Dasher though). For trifectas however I'll put Dasher in 1st or second together with Rocket Man and hope 1, 4, 6, 10, 14 or 16 come third (and of course will bet more in trifectas with Lucky and San Carlo). Does that make sense? I've had a few drinks but it strikes me as the perfect betting strategy.

Haven't a clue about the Arc. I'll watch it though - I think we can see it live on BS11.

robert said...

Sean, I really like your Trio bets. We are on the exact same wave length with Lucky and San Carlo. I was actually thinking about betting them in quinellas with Rocket Man but Trios might be the way to go. Can't wait till the odds come out at 9:30.