Saturday, October 22, 2011
Betting Against History Tomorrow
All week people have been asking me if there will be a Triple Crown Winner this year and my cop-out answer has been 50-50. Whats there not to like about Orfevre? Its difficult, he has done everything that has been asked of him. Its a cerebral decision on on my part more than anything. I didn't get on his bandwagon until after the Satsuki-Sho, which I don't like to do. I like to spot my horses early and play them often. Bottom line..I very underestimated Orfevre talent level. However a lot of things have gone very right this year to set up this opportunity for history. Back to back classic races at the SAME track( Tokyo) and VERY bad weather on both racing days and not to mention an interruption in training brought about by the March 11th earthquake. I get the feeling Orfevre is winning BECAUSE of these unusual events rather than IN SPITE of them. Looking at the field of 17 horses you would have to imagine there is at least one 3yr-old that hasn't shown his peak form yet and can deny destiny? and yet its also easy to see that this field is somewhat marginal and Orf will romp. Take it worth a grain of salt but Win Variation has been coming close under less than desirable conditions for him!! Tomorrow no rain in the forecast, a potential more beneficial pace and 100,000 fans walk away disappointed. ...........******L'lle d ' Aval....Came in 3rd last race with high weight. I really like the jockey change here as Aval seemed somewhat lazy on that October 1st race. A graded race level horse getting a very soft spot. My race of the weekend!!
The Wager: Kyoto 11th race... 13-14-1,5,8,17,18 Straight Trifecta ￥1000 ( 5 Tickets)
13 with 1,5,8,17,18 One Way Exacta￥1000 (5 Tickets)
Tokyo 10th Race...#3 with 1,4,5,9,10,11 ￥2000 Each-Way Exacta
#3 with 1,4,5,9,10,11 ￥1000 Random Trios
Posted by Keith Hagstrom at 4:18 PM