Monday, June 7, 2010

Cutting Back


With the dog days of summer approaching, I'll start to lower the % of my bankroll for wagers. Different reasons for this, mainly because the rainy season plays havoc on my numbers, certainly on race day itself but also the fist , second races back from a bad track. Another factor is that I like to wager "live", but in the summer I usually place my bets in the morning so I can go out to have a life besides Keiba.

I listed some horses that I will continue to bet blind. Certain horses I treat like individual stock. Once I make a profit I'll stop. All the horses have lost¥ for me except one, but as long as I continue to wager on them ( no skipping) and adjust my wagers for a certain " due amount' eventually the wind fall will be returned.

*Shonan Alba -¥47,000 Stuborn horse but will fire
*Prestige Rose -¥76,000 Will get great odds until he hits the board..good numbers & Sunday Racing Company..
* Rhein Dream. ¥-45,000.the most troublesome of the bunch because his recent efforts will lower his odds.
* Absolute ¥-78,000 Too good of a horse to be off the boards for much longer.
** Heavenly Cruise + 165,000 consistent trifecta buster..no rym or reason when she decides to run but when she does ¥ always follows.

The obvious danger here is that even if they hit the boards you have to get the combination to win. Betting strictly to win or show don't produce the returns to make it feasible. Numerous times my " stock" has come in but I failed to get the ticket. I accept the loss and cut the horse from my list. The ensuing odds on their next race would drop because of the previous performance and soon you can be way in over your head, betting too much just to recuperate your losses let alone any additional profit.

When these horses run I'll publish my wagers on them so you can get a better idea of what I'm doing.

A Matter Of Time



14th 7 14 Shonan Alba(JPN)
H5
57.0

13 13 1:24.9 1/2 3 7.5
16th 2 4 Heavenly Cruise(JPN)
M5
52.0

5 5 1:25.5 3 11 29.0
10th 1 1 Rose Prestige(JPN)
H6
57.0

13 14 1:38.3 HD 6 25.6
12th 2 3 Absolute(JPN)
H6
58.0 1:32.7 1/2
3rd 2 2 Rhein Dream(JPN)
F4
55.0 5 5 5 4 2:02.0 1 1/4 2 5.2

Friday, June 4, 2010

Yasuda Kinen



Strictly a spot play here! There are very few long term profitable R.O.I wagers better than a Munakata/Tanaka connection. Not to say Absolute doesn't have any value on merit alone. Throw out his last race and he's been competitive for over a year, and this is Munakata's best horse in his stable at present. Hoping he can hit the boards and snatch a trifecta in this one.

P.S This is the third time I've touted Absolute on this blog, the last time being( Feb 28th) Will this time be the charm?

The Wager: #3 with 1,2,15 ¥1000 each way Exacta
Key #3 with 1,2,8,9 10,15 ¥ 1000 random Trifecta (15 tickets)
***********************************************************************************
June 5th Selections ( Saturday)

Tokyo:
10R #2 with 7,8,10,12,14,18 ¥1000 Quinellas
11R#5 with 4,7,9,11,14,16 ¥1000 Quinellas

Tuesday, June 1, 2010

Selection Recaps


Races Wagered: 42
Races Won: 14
Races Lost: 28
Amount Wagered: ....... ¥393,000
Amount Returned:....... ¥595,000
Blog 2010 Net Profit:.... ¥202,000
Blog Overall Net Profit: ¥650,00
1/5 9R L -5000
1/5 11R L -5000
1/5 12R L -5000
1/5 11R W 16,000
1/9 11R L -4000
1/10 11R L -6000
1/11 11R L -4000
1/16 12R L -7000
1/17 12 R W 9000
1/23 11R L -5000
1/24 11R L -5000
1/30 8R W 11,000
1/31 12R W 185,000
2/6 11R W 5000
2/13 11R W 18,000
2/14 9R W 7,000
2/21 11R L -25,000
2/27 11R L -8000
3/6 11R L -8000
3/7 11R W 30,000
3/14 12R L -5000
*************************
3/20 12R L -12,000
3/21 11R L -12,000
3/28 11R L -24,000
4/3 11R W 7000
4/4 11R W 21,000
4/10 10 W 14,000
4/10 12R L -12,000
4/18 11R L -12,000
4/25 11R L -10,000
5/2 11R W 112,000
5/8 11R L -12,000
5/8 11R L -12,000
5/9 11R L -12,000
5/15 11R L -10,000
5/15 11R L-12,000
5/15 7R L -12,000
5/16 11R W 140,000
5/23 11R W 19,000
5/29 6R L-12,000
5/29 11R L-10,000
5/30 10R -67,000




Sunday, May 30, 2010

Hate Mail Senders...sorry


The problem about making your selections public is that you can easily go from a hero to " sleaze on a side walk"in a matter of races. Truthfully I know during the big races that the traffic jumps on this blog and I really want to give out some winners, but unfortunately it didn't happen today!. There was something about #8 Rose Kingdom that didn't feel right, and my gambling instincts told me to BUY BUY BUY...but.. so basically I really sucked today! Summer is coming and this blog will start becoming as popular as a Knight Rider re-run, but please do come back in the Autumn. Believe it or not I do sometimes tout a winner! Also I hope I didn't turn people off Rose Kingdom because of the previous post this week..it was basically (now proven) a warning too all that something strange was in the air. This was " stable connections" at its best " shading for a price" and I failed to take advantage of it! Apologies once again!

Attention Please

My Derby selections ticket should be a " random trifecta"...this is not a straight trifecta where the horses have to finish in exact order.. 1-2-3..... Key means that these horses 7-12, have to be used in all tickets. Sorry about the confusion.

7-12-2
7-12-3
7-12-8
7-12-9
7-12-14
7-12-17

All 2000¥
Total 12,000

Saturday, May 29, 2010

Derby Side Dishes


May 30th

Tokyo 6 Race #18
Wager #18 with 2,3,4,7,17..¥1000 each-way exacta

Kyoto 11 Race # 2
The Wager # 2 with 1,4,6,7,9 ¥1000 each-way exacta