Friday, June 4, 2010

Yasuda Kinen



Strictly a spot play here! There are very few long term profitable R.O.I wagers better than a Munakata/Tanaka connection. Not to say Absolute doesn't have any value on merit alone. Throw out his last race and he's been competitive for over a year, and this is Munakata's best horse in his stable at present. Hoping he can hit the boards and snatch a trifecta in this one.

P.S This is the third time I've touted Absolute on this blog, the last time being( Feb 28th) Will this time be the charm?

The Wager: #3 with 1,2,15 ¥1000 each way Exacta
Key #3 with 1,2,8,9 10,15 ¥ 1000 random Trifecta (15 tickets)
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June 5th Selections ( Saturday)

Tokyo:
10R #2 with 7,8,10,12,14,18 ¥1000 Quinellas
11R#5 with 4,7,9,11,14,16 ¥1000 Quinellas

35 comments:

robert said...

Very interesting! Actually your selections are a little surprising... Based on my analysis, I have a strong feeling that either 4 and/or 13 might slip in there and ruin your wagers. I'm just a rookie, but based on form, trends and even jockies, I just can't see your predictions happening. I hope you prove me wrong my man! Cheers!

robert said...

Just for the record, I'm referring to your Yasuda Kinen predictions. I honestly do hope that you win big though!

Keith Hagstrom said...

Thanks robert..This is solely based on long term projections between this trainer and jockey..the problem with these types of wagers is that u have to stay with them until they win. I had luck with this combo last year in the AJC Hai in january of 09. This percentage play stood out more than any analytical reason concerning the race itself. Basically if I cant figure the race out I'll resort to some " historical data" and thus the selections . Have you decided how you play the race?

Keith Hagstrom said...

Sean..have u figured the Yasu out yet? Sure wish we could of had this weather last week!!

Sean said...

I wanna see how fast the track is tomorrow but as of now I'm thinking of boxing Beauty Flash (#10), Smile Jack (2), Reach The Crown (1) and Showa Modern (17). This race seems almost too difficult so I'm gonna play it loose and hopefully hit some nice odds. Among the horses from Hong Kong, I definitely like Beauty Flash over Fellowship but it's hard to predict whether either will be able to handle the strange environment and lefty course.

robert said...

I am still waiting on the odds, but I am intrigued by Meiner Falke,Beauty Flash, Fellowship, A Shin Forward (a bad barrier draw though), Triumph March, Captain Thule, Faridat, and Reach the Crown.
I have a strong feeling that either Fellowship or Meiner Falke will win this race so I will be definitely putting them in some Exactors and boxed Trifectas. You are not feeling either of those 2 horses at all?

robert said...

I know that Fellowship is a little light, but I love his draw and I love his jockey.

Could Size be talking up a potential injury to Sight Winner to be driving up the odds??! Williams is probably the best jockey in this race and he has got a great draw so...

Keith Hagstrom said...

Robert, are u sure your just a rookie at this?LOL...u seemed to have a handle on things..Well if I had to give an opinion in general A) its difficult for foreign horses to score here so until the tide turns a bit I'll eliminate them..B)Meiner Falke has proven somewhat that he can be competitive on the lead at a very slow pace but one has to figure if it doesn't rain too much tomorrow the track will run faster and Im not so sure he can keep a lead.

Keith Hagstrom said...

and I would definitely not give Williams the nod at being the best jockey in this race! * although of course he is very good

robert said...

Fellowship has run a few left handed courses before in NZ and performed very well...
Who is better than Williams? Yokoyama?

robert said...

Sean, I like Showa Modern until I saw he drew 17...

robert said...

liked

robert said...

Based on the trends, the horses rated 6-10 should have a good day...

Keith Hagstrom said...

Thats a very judgmental call to make but just for experience on the track itself Yoko for sure, ebina even goto..ando is 2/2 on crown ..Last year williams winning percent was 18%(180)..this was overall..im not sure his number on this course only..williams has 1 G1 win to his name( Jaguar Mail) i think only 1? yoko/ebina/ando 13! between them

Sean said...

Robert,
Yes, you're right, Fellowhship has experience on a left-handed track but the mile at Fuchu is a different beast. Even his connections admit that 1600 m is stretching his limits and the sharp incline on the homestretch could be his undoing. However, given that this year's Japanese entries are relatively weak, he can't be discounted. Meiner Falke on the other hand won't win, of that I'm pretty sure...Williams is OK but he doesn't have much experience at Tokyo. I'd take Uchida, Ebina, Yokoyama, Ando etc. over him any race...Showa Modern would be a risk no matter his gate - he's certainly ripe for a bounce. But he's seemed like a completely different horse in his last two races and if he can maintain his current form he might factor. Again though, I'm really not that confident. A lot of horses could be there at the finish.

robert said...

Williams only has one G1 to his name in Japan... He has a lot more to his name in Oz though. Over 20 at least...
I definitely agree with you that Yoko, Ebina, and Ando are great jockies.

robert said...

Williams, who rode a double on the Tenno SHo program, has now won 23 Group One races in four different countries.

Outside AUstralia he has has also won the Prix de la Salamandre at Longchamps in France and the Dewhurst Stakes at Newmarket.
http://www.racingandsports.com.au/racing/rsNewsArt.asp?NID=175140&story=Craig_Williams_Wins_Japanese_Group_One

Keith Hagstrom said...

I'll have to put a "chat program" up on this blog!
Gotta turn in..good luck tomorrow guys( if ur betting)...later

robert said...

Are you kidding me?!?!
枠 馬 馬名 単勝 複勝
1 1 リーチザクラウン 5.6 2.2 - 2.6
1 2 スマイルジャック 6.0 2.7 - 3.2
2 3 アブソリュート 21.3 7.8 - 9.7
2 4 フェローシップ 28.5 6.6 - 8.2
3 5 サイトウィナー 65.0 17.4 - 21.5
3 6 ファリダット 14.2 3.0 - 3.7
4 7 グロリアスノア 58.7 9.0 - 11.2
4 8 キャプテントゥーレ 6.0 2.3 - 2.7
5 9 スーパーホーネット 10.3 5.5 - 6.8
5 10 ビューティーフラッシュ 19.2 4.0 - 4.8
6 11 マルカシェンク 70.7 5.8 - 7.2
6 12 ライブコンサート 83.6 12.0 - 14.8
7 13 マイネルファルケ 23.8 8.9 - 11.1
7 14 マルカフェニックス 23.9 4.2 - 5.1
7 15 トライアンフマーチ 9.1 4.3 - 5.3
8 16 サンカルロ 27.6 7.3 - 9.0
8 17 ショウワモダン 10.2 2.9 - 3.5
8 18 エーシンフォワード 15.9 3.2 - 3.9

The odds on Absolute Meiner Falke and Fellowship are abosolutely ridiculous!
Look at Reach the Crown's past performance at Tokyo and IMO there is no way he deserves to be the fav. Got to love public perception!

Keith Hagstrom said...

Absolute is about what I figured 20-1..but yeah fellowship at 28-1 is very unexpected..i think the japanese all but ignore any foreign entrant because of the recent dominance of their own stock..if u still like fellowship this would be a good time to buy..im sure he will never be this high in Hong kong ever again

Keith Hagstrom said...

My friend has an odds tracker for G1 races that monitors Saturdays take and computes a new line for tomorrow...he says its way to early in the day to make adjustments but he figures both absolute and fellowship will be much lower tomorrow..absolute 16.5 fellowship 22.1 uhm we shall wait and see I guess

Sean said...

Reach The Crown's past performance at Tokyo includes a 2nd place finish in the Derby but I think he's the favorite not so much because of his past results but because of his perceived potential as a miler. He's certainly a dangerous favorite though...Looks like we'll have some rain this afternoon. With a slower track I might end up buying Fellowship. Odds are too good.

robert said...

Reach the Crown's 2nd place finish at the derby was in the rain over 2400 metres. I'm not buying into his hype just yet, but I have not discounted his chances completely...
Keith, how are you felling about your plays today? Should I dare to follow? :)
I love the 5 horse in the 11th.

Keith Hagstrom said...

i always handicap for a fast tack so im not really sure how they will hold up today..5 in the 11th has been consistently good so hoping first timer Shibata can do even better..10th summer actress is a munakata(absolute's trainer) trained horse who always keep his horses in a $$ cycle for 3or 4 starts then they drop..she has one more in her...the last race in tokyo 12th race No.3 is my favorite Tanaka/munakata spot play again..looks like at least 20-1 here ..will play the gelding for about a 10,000 box...all in all i have about 75,000 going thru the turn pikes today but nothing of any significant value over any other typical race day

robert said...

Good luck my man! I sprinkled a little love on the 11 and 12th race. :)

robert said...

Cheers my man! I hit the 11th race pretty hard and it paid off!!

Keith Hagstrom said...

Good that u got it!..I lost about 15,000 for the day..My munakata angle plays went 0-2..but ill be back at it tomorrow with him again,,absolute of course and No 4 Tosen at 20-1 in the 9th ( tokyo)..I haven't seen a favorite go off at 4.5 in a G1 since I don't know..Today's handle for the G1 was very modest..most people laying off to see how the weather will be ..if no further rain.Crown will come down to in the 3.8 area..There are many ways to over-play tomorrow ,boxing too many horses and ur outlay will cut into ur pay-out..Too many combination's just paying in the 20-30 range. Ill take a well rested absolute over these "come what may" entrants anytime..good luck tomorrow

robert said...

I will be putting the horse you are backing (absolute) and the 4 horses I'm really liking (fellow.,falke,triumph,beauty) in some wides, trios, and exactors. Nothing over the top, but the value is there. I'll let u know my exact plays tomorrow. Cheers again on the pretty sweet hit today!

robert said...

PS. I will be throwing 2000 on sight winner to place and 1000 to win for shits and giggles. I think this whole injury thing is BS and he finished 5 in his first race in Tokyo...

robert said...

Hope you boys are having a great day so far.
Here are a few plays I have for the 11R (odds in brackets).
Brackets 2-3(58), 2-7(19), 3-7(35), 2-8(30),2-5(27) ¥1000 each
Wide 3-4 (55) ¥1000
I like 8 horses in this order- 4,10,13,15,18,6,8,5 Any suggestions as to how I should play these? Thanks in advance for any suggestions you may have.
I am also going to play sight winner to show (2000) and win (1000). Too much value.

robert said...

Probably key 4 and play a random trifecta?

robert said...

Hope you hit that hard Sean!

Sean said...

Super Hornet ruined a sweet, and I mean really sweet, exacta and quinella for me. In fact, I would've had the trio as well. Totally bummed. I bought Super Hornet in this race 3 years ago and he finished 10th. I bought him two years ago in this race when he finished 9th and I bought him last year when he finished 7th. This year he finally showed up. Well, that's 'keiba' as they say...Exciting race though.

Keith Hagstrom said...

My ticket wasn't so agonizing since I didn't have the top 2 horses in anything. Had we played Goto this week and last, we could have bought a second home in Yamanashi by now ( or first for me anyways)lol

Sean said...

Well, I don't know about that summer house but take Super Hornet out of the mix and I'm up about a million yen. It's pointless really to think about it but it would've been my best score by far. And if you'll allow me to rub some more salt into my wound if I had bought gates instead of straight duos I still would've won, not nearly as much but...Jeezus! Buena better come through for me in the Takarazuka.