Friday, July 16, 2010

Niigata July 17h & 18th

17th

10th Race #14 Harp...Has been the favorite three consecutive races. Last outing came in 2nd without the fractions....if they are a tad faster here then the chalk horse should win.

The wager: #14 with 5,6,7 ¥4000 One-Way Exacta ( 14-5,14-6,14-7)

11th Race: 2-Horse Dutch #9 & #15

The wager: #9 with 2,3,13,15 #15 with 2,3,13 ¥1000 Quinellas
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18th

11 Race # 2 Surplus Singer: Pace projections from his last two races has him competitive here. The four month break could have him stronger or not..hence the good odds. Will wager he can hang on and hit the boards.

The wager: # 2 with 4,5,6,7,10,11,12 ¥500 Random Trifectas ( 21 tickets) ¥10,500

#11 ( Zakura) * watched video of the past two years of this race. Her lead up to those races are eerily similar to this years again. She does look comfortable at 1000 m.

Side Wager - 2-11, 4-11,5-11,11-12...¥1000 Quinellas

19 comments:

robert said...

Good luck this weekend Keith! I'm too busy right now to cap these races myself so if I decide to put a few wagers in this weekend, I'll probably just end out tailing you. :)

robert said...

End up... Damn iPhones!! :)

Keith Hagstrom said...

On a fast track in niigata & good weather and fast track 10R Harp looks sharp..the Dash on sunday is a " interest bet" shot in the dark, hence the 500 yen wagers..good luck robert

robert said...

Cheers Keith! Harp looks interesting. So you are betting three Exactas (14-5,14-6 14-7) at ¥1000 a piece then? Wouldn't that come out to ¥3000 or are you actually going large and putting ¥4000 on each?

Keith Hagstrom said...

Yeah, its 4000...Harp is 2.6 morning odds ( probably will stay there) so I cant spread myself to thin with too many multiple tickets so narrowed it down to the three. Quinellas wont pay much with these other horses and I could have gone both ways with the Exacta but he won here last year quite easily as a 3yr old so ill just keep him on top

Keith Hagstrom said...

*she

robert said...

Good luck my man! I'm going to try to make it to the OTB today to play it.

robert said...

I actually didn't get to the OTB to bet it (just watched it on TV), but it looked like you were on the right horse, but lost because Tanaka made his move just a little too late. Sorry my man! Better luck tomorrow! What bet do you like best tomorrow?

Keith Hagstrom said...

hey robert, yeah that was too bad..had I known ( i bet blind in the morning)that 6-14 would pay over 20.0 and the trifecta was 90.0 with 6 in the mix i definitely would have made some adjustments on that wager ..tomorrow afternoon races I guess the 9th race in Nigatta looks the most intriguing with No.1 Mayol..he is the lone front runner that handled the tokyo course well last time out..he hasn't won at 2000m which doesn't worry me that much since none of these horses have won at this distance..ill key him in some trifectas with 4 and 8 and earth step and a few mid-priced fliers... surplus singer is at 50.1 in the dash..im not betting that seriously in this race but it seems to high..just a ¥1000 show ticket will net close to 10,000..later

Keith Hagstrom said...

Just checked the returns of the 11th race..the 2nd favorite #2 paid over 20 in a random trifecta with my 9 and 15..jeez i have to start checking these odds intermittently from now on..the wagering pool seems very under-valued early in the nigatta meet.

robert said...

Cheers on the tips Keith and nice hit on the 11th yesterday.
I'm off to go buy a few tickets now so I can watch the races on TV later on this afternoon. Good luck today! I'm just tailing you so good luck to us I guess! :)

robert said...

Hey Keith,
I'm thinking of playing 2 with 4,5,6,10,11,12 in a random trifecta and then 11 with 2, 4,5,6,7,10,12 for ¥400 or ¥500 each way. I see more value in that than betting the random trifecta and then the quinellas like you posted... Would you advise against this betting strategy?

robert said...

Just to clarify, so that would be 2 random trifectas centered around the 2&11 and then hoping at least one of them places, if not both. :)

robert said...

I decided to do just the one trifecta using 11. Hope 2&11 both place!
I also played 3 quintellas for race 9 for ¥1000 each: 1 with 3, 4, and 8.
Thanks again for the tips and all the research you do. Good luck Keith!

Keith Hagstrom said...

Hey Robert, again sorry for not checking the blog until now....Yeah, that 11 dash was a shot in the dark for money on my part..The key factor here was a horse with early speed fractions ( front runner) that I thought no.2 had...actually no.9 fit the profile but i ignored her for some reason...actually had I followed the earlier blog about this race maybe i could have won.LOl..i hope the 10th race profits didnt all end up in the 11th race for u...1-4,1-8 was my key exactas in the 10th..but like yesterday he came in 2nd..got the main random trifecta though 1-4-8, which was enough to off set my eventual 11R loss even though I doubled down on 2 some more.

Keith Hagstrom said...

* 1-3-8 ( main 1-3-4,1-3-8,1-4-8)

Sean said...

I (wisely) stayed out of the Summer Dash but I really thought the odds were bizarre. Why was the No. 7 horse, 'Melissa', a horse whose last win was almost a year ago, the favorite? And that last win wasn't even open level. Baffles the hell out of me...On a sad note, Kanoya, who should've been the favorite, injured her leg during the race and was put down. Always hate to see that happen.

robert said...

Oh, that is absolutely terrible about Kanoya. I feel a really sick to my stomach right now...

Keith Hagstrom said...

I didst realize Melissa was the favorite. Most people only look at the previous race performance where she was 4th, which jokingly was a better result that most of the field of this race. The race history holds here again this year..favorite loses, female wins, big trifecta ticket result,.
My friend had the right idea all along by buying a 5-horse longshot box..he asked me if i thought 2 should be included..considering he was 12 and 12 the last two races and his name is Easter running in July that definitely is a long shot contender..he just got in for 3rd and got his straight trifecta...he tickets count for what he did was 76 i think..sometimes its just not worth spreading ur self out too much in such a sub-par race, considering there will be racing next week, and the week after that,etc..but he has a sizable enough bankroll to play things that way..and he won so not much i can say about his strategy