Saturday, November 13, 2010

November 14th Queen Elizabeth


Kyoto 11 Race

#9 Meisho Beluga..She has been running with the boys in far superior races than any of her counter parts. She might prefer additional distance but class could very well compensate for it here.

The Wager 5-9 ¥5000 Quinella ...#9 with 6,11,12,14,17 ¥1000 Each-Way Exacta

Total Wager: ¥15,000....Expected profit index on every ticket from 5-9 (5.7) +10,000¥to 14-9 (145.7) + 130,000¥

********* #11 has been scratched from the race. Will play #7 as an alternative ticket.

9 comments:

Sean said...

Can't argue with Meisho, although she can get into trouble with a full gate. Speaking of which, the 11 horse, Provenage, has been scratched. How about replacing her with 7, Saint Emilion? Or do you reckon it's gonna take some time for her to return to form?

Keith Hagstrom said...

Sean, Thanks for the heads up on 11. I put this in my draft this morning and forgot to edit it before I posted it. I'll put saint as a replacement. The form wasn't my concern with her actually but her morning odds seemed higher than what it should have been. Now its hovering at 13.1 according to Gallop which is more align to the previous 21.1 which was Friday. Something didnt seem right....have u decided how ur playing it tomorrow

Sean said...

Saint had no interest in running in the Shuka sho. It's always hard to back a horse that finished 18th in her last race but Demuro might be able to turn her around. Still, if she couldn't beat Apapane over 2400 m in Tokyo in peak form I don't think she can beat her at 2200 in Kyoto in very questionable form. But I like 5-7 and will push the exacta a little in Apapane's favor...I also like Meisho's chances of picking off Apapane on the line if she gets the right pace. So I'll definitely buy 5-9 and lean towards Meisho on the exacta. I will also add Saint for a 65-1 trifecta (9-5-7). The only other horse I think might have a chance to beat Apapane is 6, Snow Fairy, although I think it'll be a tall order. I'll bet 6 with 5 & 9 and also try her in a trifecta between Meisho and Apapane (9-6-5). Finally I'll add 12, Animate Bio, to 5 & 9 for some insurance. That's how I'll be playing it. Good luck.

robert said...

Here are my plays for today. My bankroll is ¥15,000. I'm going out on a little bit of a limb backing the foreign horses. I think Snow Ferry has a great chance here and I also really like its Jockey. 6 with 5,7,9,12&17 in two-way exactas. Expected profit +¥3000(5-6) to +¥226,000(17-6).
I'm also dabbling a little bit of coin on Ave. I like Ave especially if this race is run at a slower pace. Ave was able to outrun Red Desire down the stretch in the Flower Cup so I think it's worth a shot. 16 with 5,6,9,12&17 in ¥500 quintellas. Expected profit ranging from +¥2000 (5-16) to +¥110,000(16-17).
As insurance, in case the obvious happens, I threw ¥3000 on 5-9(break-even).
GL boys!

robert said...

Keith, I am adding the Rams +6 in the NFL.

robert said...

Well done guys! Wow, Snow Ferry totally destroyed the field down the stretch. Impressive to say the least!

Keith Hagstrom said...

Robert..Good call on Snow Ferry. She is headed for the Japan Cup now. We finally got a G1 in our pockets. Sean probably did quite well with his trifecta plays. Thanks for the NFL play..Im a little hesitant about not backing the 49ers though.I really think they are starting to hit their stride. I'm gonna play the Jets -3. Cleveland has played quite well as of late but QB Macoy might have his hands full against the Jets Defense. Good luck, later

Sean said...

That is one powerful Fairy! With that performance she might just be the favorite for the J-Cup...I missed the trifecta but got healthy on the exacta and trio. I was sweating that photo finish though...Nice call on Snow Fairy, Robert. I saw her as a 'definite maybe' but I just couldn't commit to her all the way. The turf in Europe is like 10 seconds slower than here so you just never know if a horse will be able to adjust (and usually they can't). Snow Fairy is something special though.

Let's carry this momentum into next week's Mile Championship.

Sean said...

Snow Fairy won't run in the Japan Cup...