I have the oaks narrowed down to 3,9,11,12 and possibly 17&16... Any thoughts?
Hey robert, well heavy rain is forecast for Sunday morning so Im downgrading it more than I had already planned to begin with. I will box up some horses. The only thing I know now is Im eliminating #12 whale capture and including #1 Hubble bubble. I doubt ill put rice terrace in my box also. Basically im looking at all potential long shots and mid price horses.
1,2,3,5,11,15( 15 tickets)* current plan
Interesting... I looked long and hard at 1&2, but I don't agree with 5&15... If it's yielding I'll eliminate 17 and most likely 16 and throw in 8 with 3,9,11&12. Keep me posted on the weather. :)
I would feel more comfortable discounting Marcellina before Whale Capture. I think that there is a good chance Whale Capture wins this thing...
You most definitely could be right but I never liked Whale capture and with the success of the last two fillies Buena vista and Appanne and the absent of such a " super girl" this year,I feel this is the year the huge long shots come in. Actually # 1 hubble might even be eliminated if I stick to this strategy since she will be a top 4 pick.
Small sample but definitely food for thought.But a different picture emerges if we view the performance by win odds favoritism in years when the official going was not "Firm" (2004, 2008, 2010). Of horses ranked "1st favorite", "2nd favorite" and "3rd favorite" in win odds, the only one to finish in the top 3 was Apapane (1st favorite), which dead-heated for 1st in 2010. All of the other 8 horses finishing in the top 3 were rated 4th favorite or lower in win odds; moreover, 4 horses rated "6th favorite or lower" have also finished in the top 3. In years when the official going is anything other than "Firm", we should be prepared for an upset when making our race predictions. [Table 10][Table 10] Performance by win odds favoritism when the going was not "Firm" (2004, 2008, 2010)Win odds favoritism Performance(1st-2nd-3rd-4th or lower) Win ratio Top 2 ratio Top 3 ratio1st favorite 1-0-0-2 33.3% 33.3% 33.3%2nd favorite 0-0-0-3 0% 0% 0%3rd favorite 0-0-0-3 0% 0% 0%4th favorite 1-1-0-1 33.3% 66.7% 66.7%5th favorite 1-0-1-1 33.3% 33.3% 66.7%6th favorite or lower 1-1-2-35 2.6% 5.1% 10.3%(Data analysis by Masaya Ibuki)PreviewBarrier drawPast performances of runnersNews2011.05.20Yushun Himba (Japanese Oaks) (G1) - comments from runners' connections2011.05.18Data Analysis for the "Yushun Himba (Japanese Oaks) (G1)"2011.05.172011 Yushun Himba (Japanese Oaks) (G1) - Nominated Horse International RatingsRace result2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005Video2010 English 2009 English 2008 English 2007 2006 2005 Photo Gallery 2010 Winner: Apapane/Saint Emilion 2009 Winner: Buena Vista 2008 Winner: Tall Poppy 2007 Winner: Robe Decollete 2006 Winner: Kawakami Princess
If it rains too heavily too early, I'll pass on the Oaks and opt for the GII in Kyoto. Rain will just make that race easier. But if the rain holds off, I think 1, 9, 12 and 16 should get it done. Maybe throw in 7 and 18 on some trios but I really think the other horses are weak. I agree that Whale and even Marcelina aren't Apapane or Buena class but they've both fared well against Satsuki-sho winner Orfevre which to me makes them miles ahead of the rest. But the bloodlines of 16 have to be respected and Williams on 1 is also attractive. Having said that though I kinda hope for a deluge cuz I think the Kyoto race is the safer bet. You just never know with this untried distance.
Let me just add, though I'm clearly getting drunk, that although 1, 9, 12 and 16 will likely be the favorites, they should still offer pretty good value. I figure more than a few punters will back trial winners/runners-up like 3, 4, 11 etc.
Sean, I'll probably be one of those punters that puts a little money on 3&11. :) I find it very hard to not bet them considering their experience at Tokyo and with longer distances, and most importantly their times over the final 3Fs. I love Williams and Hubble Bubble's bloodlines, but I don't like her draw and her L3F times. I think she'll get eaten up in the long straight...
I cant believe how much headliner paid. Im stoked!!..I won my early races too which means i usually double up on the main races. I didnt do it with Whity though but still happy with 500,000.
Nice hit Keith! Too bad I didn't play today... Let's hit it again tomorrow. PS I think 16 is way overvalued right now.
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