Friday, May 27, 2011
ORFEVRE : LOOKING AT A DERBY WINNER
After a lot of effort trying to get that square peg in that round hole, an anecdotal expression meaning in handicapping terms, finding a long shot that's not there , I decided to take the easier approach and put the peg where it belongs and likewise with my handicapping go with the proven horse , abet the favorite # 5 Orfevre.
Four good efforts in a row with final furlong fractions the fastest in all four races. Dominant trainer, and a surface running the same as his previous race, where he left every horse in the mud.
#10 Nakayama Knight: I cant say he took to the surface in the Satsuki coming in 5th, but I believe it was more his conditioning than anything else. He never got that acceleration going, but if he can stay up near the pack I think he might have a chance to take off.
#11 Debonair. He usually runs closer to the pace than he did last time out but a bad break did him in. Having said that he came from 14th to finish an impressive 4th. Like Knight, if Dettori can keep him closer or even mid pack he has that potential to drive it home once again.
#2 Sadamu Patek: I really liked this horse earlier in the week based on the Satsuki Sho. Literally, he had to move through a guantlet of horses and still finished 2nd. I got a late feeling that maybe the mojo isn't there quite yet, meaning he will still find a way to get in trouble or come up short. His bloodlines are somewhat a concern at 2400m too. Certainly I'm not abandoning him, but a downgrade.
#13. Roccaverano: A money horse that suddenly finds the Derby veteran Yutaka on his back. Other horses look statistically more attractive but you cant put a price tag on experience.
#16 Tosen Reve: The only horse that has been in the money in all his races. Going to continue to ride the momentum.
#15 Tosen Ra: Another horse trained by a very competent trainer that didn't run his race last time out.
The Wager: A 6-horse box (2,5,10,11,13,16) for ￥1000 Each-Way Exacta, except for #5 for ￥3000 Each Way Exacta. Also 5-15 for ￥3000 each-Way Exacta
Key #5 with (2,10,11,13,15,16) in random trifectas ( 15 tickets) for ￥2000 each.
Posted by Keith Hagstrom at 6:20 PM