Orfevre & Ikee
Its Derby Week and the inundation of information, hoopla, over-hyped quotes and the other over indulgences of media and data has already begun.
I got up this morning to form a " direction" to the derby only to find an easier road than expected thanks to Yahoo weather. The forecast?, continual rain most of the week and also on SUNDAY. Of course we cant always count on these types of things but the starting point of any meaningful handicapping must start from the probable track surface.
I'm totally ignorant on off track-pedigree of Japanese stallions. I find it easier to just go back in the archives at races ran in similar conditions and see how those horses fared. Hold and behold we only have to go as far back as last months Satsuki Sho and analyze similar potential race conditions and as a bonus its even at the SAME track. I'm guessing, but Sherlock Holmes might also deduct that are first " clues" shall be found with THIS race.
BETTING STRATEGY: I would love to lock on one horse but frankly I cant really justify putting one of the contenders significantly higher than any of the others. Most likely, I'll box my top 5 and key 1 horse in particular in a 6-horse trifecta box. I don't see many punters chasing after their losses after the Oaks result on Sunday. The odds should be evenly spread which bolds well for the favorites as the dark horses are already getting cheated in value by not having a large lop side in the betting pool because of the evenness of odds toward the numerous top choices..
QUESTIONS TO CONSIDER
1) The weather and eventual run of the surface?
2) Orfevre. He has the 2nd highest rating in the world for 3-yr olds. Budding star or B-grade?
3) Ikee has a bundle of talent. Feast or Famine?
4) Second Chances..can Tosen Ra, Nakayama Knight, Belshazzar run to their potential this time ?
5) Trial Race Pretenders or Contenders? Win Varation& Cresco Grand
6) Where is the pace? Universal Bank might pull an inside job and steal this race?
7) Tosen Reve? Does he have a thing for this course or what??