Monday, May 23, 2011

IKEE 'S KNOCKING THREE TIMES ON THAT DERBY DOOR

Orfevre & Ikee


Its Derby Week and the inundation of information, hoopla, over-hyped quotes and the other over indulgences of media and data has already begun.

I got up this morning to form a " direction" to the derby only to find an easier road than expected thanks to Yahoo weather. The forecast?, continual rain most of the week and also on SUNDAY. Of course we cant always count on these types of things but the starting point of any meaningful handicapping must start from the probable track surface.

I'm totally ignorant on off track-pedigree of Japanese stallions. I find it easier to just go back in the archives at races ran in similar conditions and see how those horses fared. Hold and behold we only have to go as far back as last months Satsuki Sho and analyze similar potential race conditions and as a bonus its even at the SAME track. I'm guessing, but Sherlock Holmes might also deduct that are first " clues" shall be found with THIS race.

BETTING STRATEGY: I would love to lock on one horse but frankly I cant really justify putting one of the contenders significantly higher than any of the others. Most likely, I'll box my top 5 and key 1 horse in particular in a 6-horse trifecta box. I don't see many punters chasing after their losses after the Oaks result on Sunday. The odds should be evenly spread which bolds well for the favorites as the dark horses are already getting cheated in value by not having a large lop side in the betting pool because of the evenness of odds toward the numerous top choices..

QUESTIONS TO CONSIDER

1) The weather and eventual run of the surface?
2) Orfevre. He has the 2nd highest rating in the world for 3-yr olds. Budding star or B-grade?
3) Ikee has a bundle of talent. Feast or Famine?
4) Second Chances..can Tosen Ra, Nakayama Knight, Belshazzar run to their potential this time ?
5) Trial Race Pretenders or Contenders? Win Varation& Cresco Grand
6) Where is the pace? Universal Bank might pull an inside job and steal this race?
7) Tosen Reve? Does he have a thing for this course or what??

11 comments:

Sean said...

1) Personally hate rain. I've changed my picks because of a soggy turf only to see my original picks win and yet it can be a big factor.

2) Orfevre seems to be the real thing. He was born a little late and so his growth curve could be a little higher than the rest.

3) Orfevre is probably Ikee's best chance.

4) Tosen Ra doesn't have the long legs for Tokyo. Nakayama Knight is pretty ordinary.

5) Win Variation looked impressive in his Aoba sho win but he got a perfect trip and that time was too slow. Hard to say based on that race. I think I prefer Cresco (as a dark horse).

6) Universal Bank won't win the Derby.

7) Haven't made my mind up about Tosen yet but he's not in Buena's class yet. It would be a serious gamble to bet him too heavily.

Just my preliminary thoughts...

robert said...

Does anyone know if Gustave Cry will make the cut? He might be my dark horse if he runs. He got boxed in the Aoba, but still made a race of it. If Ando stays on board Win Variation, he might be an enticing horse to back too. Could the Heart's Cry's horses make some noise?!

I also like Sadamu, Debonair, Ballade, Reve and of course Orfevre. Depending on the odds and draws, I might box 5 as well..

Keith Hagstrom said...

robert, no he didnt. Also this morning Ballade got scratched and Take Yutaka will be riding Rocco who came in 6th in the Satsuki sho. Ando is still on Varation and Goto is now on Bedazzeled or Belshazz?? whatever that name is.

robert said...

Well, that makes it a little easier for me then. I'll probably just box Win Variation, Sadamu, Debonair, Reve, & Orfevre and hope for the best. :)

Who is Uchida on?

Sean said...

Some nurse maybe, since Uchida's in the hospital. He'll be out of action for a couple of months.

Keith, to continue our discussion from facebook, I agree that Sadamu is not a typical Kiseki colt - he's a bit reminiscent of Dream Passport. And although he was soundly beaten in the Satsuki by Orfevre he was clearly the best of the rest by far. If he gets settled in quickly I think he's got a good chance. I also like Cotillion and both Tosens as moneymakers. Unless the track is a mudpit...

Oh, a friend in Tokyo is gonna buy my ticket but thanks for the offers.

robert said...

What happened to Uchida? Did he fall off a horse? Missed it...

I don't like Cotillion, but hey what do I know?? I think Sadamu wins this thing and Orfevre comes in third. In between? Debonair, Reve or maybe Win. Those are my predictions and eventual bets. Then again, what do I know?!

An Advocate of Beer said...

Cresco isn't looking too bad either. I do like the Trifecta box strategy because there just doesn't seem to be an "it" horse here

Sean said...

Yeah, Uchida got tossed. I think he broke something...

Sean said...

Why don't you like Cotillion? Cuz he seems more suited to the mile? Could be. It seems like a lot of Deep Impact's kiddies are. But Cotillion ran a strong 2000m back when he was still finding his legs and today he's one of the best 3 y/os, make no mistake. The distance and typhoon could be his undoing but at least I know I've got a G1 level horse with him. I can't say the same about Debonair, Win, Belshazzar, Cresco etc. But what do I know?

robert said...

So should I just start looking at the muckers for the derby then??

Sean, I don't think Cotillion is suited for the distance, but I definitely could be wrong. I agree with you that probably three out of the four horses you mentioned are a little outclassed, but I have a feeling that Debonair might make some noise. He finished fourth in the Satsuki despite having a piss poor start and now that he has a world-class jockey on his back, he just might surprise.

Mr. Beer, if this was at Kyoto, I might be buying Cresco as a flier. Even though he could a great draw, I think he is seriously outclassed. But I will say this again, I got nothing right now. If it was the end of last year or the beginning of this year, I would be a lot more confident right now...

robert said...

*got a great draw