Friday, May 6, 2011

Principal Stakes



Tokyo 11 Race.....#8 Target Machine. Pulling the trigger on Target. Tomorrow I will stake my largest wager of the year on a horse that came in LAST his previous race. Still a top 5 pick according to the morning line, the betting public is throwing out this race and wagering his talents will resurface themselves once again come post time. Trainer Munakata has worked the last two months on getting Targets tension level down. " He couldn't relax in the Yayoi" stressed the trainer so jockey Tanaka had no choice but to let him run. From March 25th until April 14th, Target was predominantly doing pool workouts, a common tactic to ease tension on those horses susceptible to hypersensitivity. From March 30th until May 4th he had alternated from breeze workouts to bullet workouts. The " trackman" from Keibabook and Kachi Uma both had Target as their top " On Form" horse in their respected newspapers today. The Principal Stakes only invites the winner to the Derby. A few of the horses in this race such as 10, 17,18 need more purse money to qualify so at least a top 4 finish should put them there, but not Target. He needs to win it. This has been my Derby Selection since he won on January 8th ( Elvis' birthday, long story:) and with a firm track come tomorrow I love his chances.

The Wager # 8 with 6,10,15,17,18 ¥3000 One- Way Exacta Key 1st
6,10,15,17,18 with #8 ¥1000 One -Way Exacta Key 2nd
# 8 with 6,10,15,17,18 ¥3000 Random Trifectas ( 10 tickets)

17 comments:

Keith Hagstrom said...

I pretty much ate up all my profit and then some of the blogs bankroll last week so I really couldnt spend any more for tomorrow. i'm looking to spread about up to 200,000 on the race. My win/loss is always determined by my 3 or 4 large wagers per year. This is my first one of the season. I hope it goes well. I havnt looked at the NHK mile hardly at all.Hows it looking. Boss wins it he might be the Derby favorite?

Keith Hagstrom said...

http://www.runnymedefarmky.com/news/rein-in-avaricity-target-machine-newest-juvenile-w/ paste this in a search engine and it has targets story. This Farm has done well in Japan

robert said...

Hey! I really like the bet, but you might want to throw Kafuna in there too. You wouldn't want to see him ruining the party...

Keith Hagstrom said...

yeah, i will . I like Goto so i would be poissed if he got in there and I missed out on it

Keith Hagstrom said...

*pissed

Keith Hagstrom said...

robert, what does that guy on Yahoo like in this race?

Keith Hagstrom said...

guys, i have a question. When I blog in red print on the orange background is it tough to read. Getting some comments that they cant make it out.

Sean said...

Keith,
The all-red is readable but I definitely prefer black. It's a lot easier on the eyes. Having said that though I think the occasional use of red is quite effective. Just my 200 yen...

I like your bet tomorrow but I don't think I'd wanna wager 200,000 on this race. Good luck.

 

Sean said...

Oh, and there's no way Boss is going to the Derby. He's definitely a miler. It's not a race I'm all that excited about but if Williams gives Boss a good trip he should hit the boards. If he spends his legs too early (like he's done in past two races), then this race is wide open.

robert said...

Yeah Keith, red on orange is quite difficult to read, especially on an iPhone... Tama-chan from Yahoo has Deep Sound as his key horse. The rest of the guys from yahoo also like Tosen, Danon and Kafuna. Two out of the four of them gave Target a triangle.

I like your play on Target so I'll be keying him as well. I might play him with with 7 horses in each way ¥1000 exactas for a total of ¥14000 though... Waiting for the odds to come out to see if it's worth it though. GL tomorrow!

robert said...

I totally agree with you Sean that there is no way GPB goes to the Derby. I do think that he wins or places on Sunday though. It sounds like Craig Williams has been practice riding him and has been able to hold him back...

Keith Hagstrom said...

Thanks for the feedback guys, as they say once you go black you never go back * to red! Sometimes the question is not if they deserve to go to the Derby but that an owner just wants a "Derby horse. I remember a few years ago Jo capicino went to the derby and he was definitively a miler but that didnt stop Yanagi. Im not totally convinced if he comes in the top 2 that you wont see him there come race time.>>> I'll paste an excerpt from the Target story above. He and Deep Sound have quite the connection. 8-17 could be a majority play even though i like my 6 and 15 horse prices...................
The dark bay colt’s scintillating win in 1:36 for 1,600 meters on firm turf marked him as a two-year-old to watch in upcoming competition, along with his fellow Runnymede-bred Deep Sound, who notched his second consecutive victory on November 6 at Tokyo. Both juvenile colts were bred by Runnymede in partnership with Peter Callahan and both are from the first crop by Japanese Triple Crown winner Deep Impact, who ranks far ahead of other Japanese freshman sires and also holds a commanding lead in the overall juvenile sire standings in that nation.

robert said...

It looks like Yahagi wants to take GPB to England.
http://japanracing.jp/_news2011/110506-04.html

Keith Hagstrom said...

im not quite sure what to make about those comments. The foreign jockey quote was a little particular. I wonder what European race he has in mind? But yeah, he didnt mention the derby at all.

Keith Hagstrom said...

hey guys, was holding out on my wager just to see about the weather but the track is not all that affected by the light rain. Decided to play it simple. Didn't want to spread myself to thin. My wager: ¥100,000 Show ticket #8 with 6,10,15,17,18 ¥20,000 Quinellas. Rolling the dice that target will come in at least 3rd to save my wager and hopefully catch a number and its all gravy from then

Keith Hagstrom said...

well that sucks. break/positioning went well..? Im getting killed on dirt too!!..going to have to hold back until Derby for final glory. Looking to
box some long odds fliers come may 29th and hopefully recoup my losses and get set for a profitable summer. Thats the plan anyway :(

robert said...

Shitty is right... I'm still all over GPB and hoping that Pray can come in with him. :)